Grain for Green: Balancing Ecological Protection and Food Security under Climate Change

Zong, Xiaoxue and Huang, Kaixing and Ji, Xi (2025): Grain for Green: Balancing Ecological Protection and Food Security under Climate Change.

Abstract

Land use policy is crucial for food security and ecological protection. This study explores the impact of the world’s largest Grain for Green Program, which subsidizes more than 100 million farmers to convert sloped cropland to forests and grasslands, on crop productivity in China. By combining detailed county-level crop production data with remote sensing data, our difference-in-differences estimates suggest that while the program significantly reduced total cropland area, it led to an increase in total crop yield. The unexpected yield impact can be explained by the fact that the program significantly increased labor input and multiple cropping in the remaining cropland. More importantly, we find that the program substantially reduced the damage of drought and extreme heat on crop yield. Our findings suggest the possibility of adopting land use policy to protect the ecology without compromising food security in a developing country.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: land use, food security, ecological protection, climate shocks, Grain for Green
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J4 - Particular Labor Markets > J43 - Agricultural Labor Markets; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation ; Agriculture and Environment; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

References

1. Ball, V. E., Bureau, J.-C., Nehring, R., and Somwaru, A. (1997). Agricultural productivity revisited. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79(4):1045–1063.

2. Burke, M. and Emerick, K. (2016). Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from us agriculture. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8(3):106–40.

3. Cengiz, D., Dube, A., Lindner, A., and Zipperer, B. (2019). The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs: evidence from the united states using a bunching estimator. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3):1405–1454.

4.Chen, S. and Gong, B. (2021). Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from china. Journal of Development Economics, 148:102557.

5. Deschênes, O. and Greenstone, M. (2007). The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. American economic review, 97(1):354–385.