Future of Rice in Asia: Perspectives and Opportunities, 2050

Pede, Valerien and Valera, Harold Glenn and Mishra, Ashok and Balié, Jean (2023): Future of Rice in Asia: Perspectives and Opportunities, 2050. Published in: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. (March 2024)

Abstract

To meet the rice demand 2050, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) estimates that an extra 75 million tons of rice will need to be produced worldwide compared to 2020. This represents a substantial leap forward when rice yields are plateauing in most countries. Several factors are likely to drive the supply response, including the actual surface planted to rice when the competition for land is fierce, the extent of adoption of high-yielding varieties when variety turnover has remained low, farmer's access to and price of inputs especially fertilizers as the price of fossil energy soars, rapidly changing consumers preference with a growing rice market segmentation that calls for shorter and more responsive value chains, evolving public incentives to address production but also consumption environmental policy objectives, and the more or less rapid integration of rice market in Asia but also the rice market outlook in Africa. Authors borrow from foresight methods and rely on quantitative models such as the IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM) to analyze projections in terms of supply, demand, trade, and prices. Under the climate change adaptation and mitigation imperative, the paper also discusses the likely tradeoffs between food and nutrition security and methane emission reduction and higher water use efficiency in Asian rice-based agri-food systems.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Rice, food security, foresight, Asia
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy

References

Al Mamn, M.A., Nihad, S.A.I., Sarkar, M.A.R., Aziz, M.A., Qayum, M.A., Ahmed, R., Rahman, N.M.F., Hossain, M.I. and Kabir, M.S. (2021). Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh, PLoS One.

Balié, J., Minot, N. and Valera, H.A. (2021). Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines, Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, pp. 289-306.

Balié, J. (2020). The trade-offs of healthy food from sustainable agriculture in the Global South, Global Food Security, 26, #100384.

Balié, J. and Valera, H.A. (2020). Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines, Food Policy, 92, Article # 101876.

Bhandari, H. and Mishra, A. K. (2018). Impact of demographic transformation on future rice farming in Asia, Outlook on Agriculture, 47(2), pp. 135-132. Francisco, S., Mataia, A., Eusebio, A., Sanguyo, E., Constantino, M., Causon, E., Quilloy, K. and Sombillia, M. (2013). Per Capita Rice Consumption in the Philippines: Reasons Behind Increases, Crop protection newsletter, 38 pp. 33-42.

Furuya, J. and Koyama, O. (2005). Impacts of climatic change on world agricultural product markets: estimation of macro yield functions, JARQ, 39, pp. 121–134.

Gaiha, R., Jha, R. and Kulkarni, V.S. (2013). How Pervasive is Eating Out in India? J. Asian Afr. Stud., 48, pp. 370–386.

Hoang, H.K. and Meyers, W.H. (2015). Price stabilization and impacts of trade liberalization in the Southeast Asian rice market, Food Policy, 57, pp. 26-39.

Huang, J. and David, C. (1993). Demand for cereal grain in Asia: the effect of urbanization. Economics, 8, pp. 107-124.

Ladha J.K., Dawe, D., Pathak, H., Padre, A.T., Yadav, R.L., Singh, B., Singh, Y., Singh, Y., Singh, P., Kundu, A.L. et al. (2003). How extensive are yield declines in long-term rice–wheat experiments in Asia? Field Crop Res., 81, pp. 159–180.

Kinkingninhoun Medagbe, F.M., Komatsu, S., Mujawamariya, G. and Saito, K. (2020). Men and Women in Rice Farming in Africa: A Cross-Country Investigation of Labor and Its Determinants. Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 4, pp. 117.

Mishra, A., K. Pede, V.O., Arouna, A., Labarta, R., Andrade, R., Veettil, P.C., Bhandari, H., Laborte, A.G., Balie, J. and Bouman, B. (2022). Helping feed the world with rice innovations: CGIAR research adoption and socioeconomic impact on farmers, Global Food Security, 33, Article # 100628.

Meemken, E.M. and Bellemare, M.F. (2020). Smallholder farmers and contract farming in developing countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, pp. 259‒264.

Mishra, A., K. Pede, V.O., Arouna, A., Labarta, R., Andrade, R., Veettil, P.C., Bhandari, H., Laborte, A.G., Balie, J., and Bouman, B. (2022). Helping feed the world with rice innovations: CGIAR research adoption and socioeconomic impact on farmers, Global Food Security, 33, Article # 100628.

Mishra, A., Kumar, A., Joshi, P.K. and Dsouza, A. (2016). Impacts of contracts in high yielding varieties seed production on profits and yield: the case of Nepal. Food Policy, 62, pp. 110‒121.

Mishra, A., Kumar, A., Joshi, P.K., and Dsouza, A. (2018a). Production risks, risk preference, and contract farming: Impact on food security in India. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 40, pp. 353‒378.

Mishra, A., Kumar, A., Joshi, P.K., and Dsouza, A. (2018b). Cooperatives, contract farming, and farm size: The case of tomato producers in Nepal. Agribusiness: An International Journal, pp. 1-22.

Mishra, A., Kumar, A., Joshi, P.K. and Dsouza, A. (2018c). How can organic rice be a boon to smallholders? Evidence from contract farming in India. Food Policy, 75, pp. 147‒157.

Mishra, A., Shaik, S., Khanal, A.R. and Bairagi, S. (2017). Contract farming and technical efficiency: evidence from low-value and high-value crops in Nepal. Agribusiness: An International Journal, 34, pp. 426‒440.

Mottaleb, K.A. and Mishra, A. K. (2022). Income, urbanisation and consumption of processed foods: Implications for nutrition and health policies for India. Journal of International Development, In Press, pp. 1–28.

Mottaleb, K.A., Rahut, D.B., Kruseman, G. and Erenstein, O. (2018). Evolving food consumption patterns of rural and urban households in developing countries. British Food Journal, 120, pp. 392-408. Mottaleb, K., Rahut, D.B. and Mishra, A. (2017). Modeling rice grain-type preferences in Bangladesh. British Food Journal, 119, pp. 2049-2061.

Mottaleb, K. and Mishra, A. (2016). Rice Consumption and Grain-Type Preference by Household: A Bangladesh Case. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 48, pp. 298-319.

Otsuka, K., Nakano, Y. and Kazushi, T. (2016). Contract farming in developed and developing countries. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 8, pp. 353–376.

Pandey, S., Suphanchaimat N. and Velasco, L. (2012). The patterns of spread and economics of a labor-saving innovation in rice production: the case of direct seeding in Northeast Thailand. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 51, pp. 333-356.

Pingali, P. (2007). Westernization of Asian diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy. Food Policy, 32, pp. 281–298.

Pingali P.L., Hossain M. and Gerpacio R.V. (1997). Asian rice bowls: the returning crisis. CAB International, UK.Radel C., Schmook, B., Mcevoy, J., Mendez, C. and Petrzelka, P. (2012). Labor migration and gendered agricultural relations: the feminization of agriculture in the Ejidal sector of Calakmul, Mexico. Journal of Agrarian Change, 12, pp. 98-119.

Redfern, S.K., Azzu, N.J. and Binamira, S. (2012) Rice in Southeast Asia: Facing Risks and Vulnerabilities to Respond to Climate Change. Building Resilience for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture Sector, FAO/OECD Workshop Proceedings, 23-24 April 2012, pp. 295–314. http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i3084e/i3084e18.pdf

Srinivasan, P.V. and Jha, S. (2001). Liberalized trade and domestic price stability. The case of rice and wheat in India, Journal of Development Economics, 65, pp. 417-441.

Tanaka, T. and Hosoe, N. (2011). Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan, Food Policy, 36, pp. 368-377.

Timsina, J., Wolf, J., Gulipart, N., van Bussel, L.G.J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Hossain, A., Rashid, H., Islam, S. and van Ittersum, M.K. (2016). Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand? Systems, 163, pp. 36-44.

Tripathi, S.C. and Das, A. (2017). Bed planting for resource conservation, diversification and sustainability of wheat based cropping system, J Wheat Res., 9, pp. 1–11.

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. (2021). Production and supply and distribution database. Accessed: September 15, 2021. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery

Yuan, S., Stuart, A.M., Laborte, A.G. et al. (2022). Southeast Asia must narrow down the yield gap to continue to be a major rice bowl. Nat Food, 3, pp. 217–226.