Shocks and Selection: How Earthquakes Shape Local Political Representation

Baraldi, Anna Laura and Cantabene, Claudia and De Iudicibus, Alessandro and Fosco, Giovanni and Papagni, Erasmo (2025): Shocks and Selection: How Earthquakes Shape Local Political Representation.

Abstract

This paper examines how natural disasters shape electoral preferences by analyzing the impact of earthquakes in Italy between 1990 and 2019. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we estimate that affected municipalities are more likely to elect female, more educated, and older city councilors. Similar shifts occur for mayors. These effects persist across election cycles and are robust to alternative specifications. We rule out competing explanations such as changes in turnout or candidate supply. The findings suggest that crises push voters to favor politicians perceived as more competent, experienced, and prosocial.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Natural disasters; Electoral behavior; Local elections; Political selection; Gender and representation; Earthquakes; Difference-in-Differences; Voter preferences
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H70 - General; H - Public Economics > H8 - Miscellaneous Issues > H84 - Disaster Aid; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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