Unemployment Rate: Concepts and Indicators

Vintu, Denis (2025): Unemployment Rate: Concepts and Indicators.

Abstract

Unemployment is a central indicator in macroeconomic analysis, reflecting both the performance of an economy and the well-being of its population. This paper examines unemployment from theoretical, empirical, and policy perspectives, with a particular focus on the Republic of Moldova. It begins by defining unemployment and its role as an economic and social indicator, followed by an overview of key theoretical frameworks, including Classical and Keynesian perspectives, the natural rate of unemployment, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve. Various types of unemployment—frictional, structural, cyclical, and seasonal—are analyzed alongside methods of measurement such as labor force surveys and the employment-to-population ratio. The paper identifies major causes of unemployment, ranging from economic downturns and technological change to globalization, skill mismatches, and demographic factors. The consequences are explored in economic terms, such as GDP loss measured by Okun’s Law, and in social terms, including poverty, inequality, and political instability. Policy responses are discussed, including fiscal and monetary measures, education and training programs, active labor market policies, and structural reforms. A case study of the Republic of Moldova provides insight into recent unemployment trends, underlying causes, and the effectiveness of government responses. Emerging challenges—such as the impact of artificial intelligence, the rise of green jobs, global economic uncertainty, and labor mobility—are examined to assess the country’s future labor market trajectory. The findings highlight that unemployment is a multidimensional issue requiring integrated strategies that balance economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. For Moldova, success will depend on its ability to strengthen domestic job creation, enhance workforce skills, and reduce dependence on external labor markets, thereby ensuring a resilient and inclusive labor market in the face of global change.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Unemployment, Labor Market, Republic of Moldova, Economic Growth, NAIRU, Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law, Labor Mobility, Automation, Green Jobs, Fiscal Policy, Active Labor Market Policies, Globalization, Skill Mismatch, Economic Uncertainty
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J68 - Public Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources ; Human Development ; Income Distribution ; Migration

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