Choc exogène et stabilité macroéconomique

Kahembwe, Christ (2025): Choc exogène et stabilité macroéconomique.

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of exogenous shocks on the macroeconomic stability of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), highlighting the country's high vulnerability due to its overreliance on mineral exports and limited economic diversification. Using a multi-sectoral econometric approach, the study reveals that external shocks such as global crises, pandemics, and commodity price fluctuations result in prolonged economic adjustments up to eight years. Key sectors like monetary aggregates and banking profitability are highly sensitive to international conditions, whereas public debt, largely concessional, shows limited responsiveness. The paper calls for ambitious structural reforms, including economic diversification, counter-cyclical policies, improved management of mining revenues, investment in human capital, and stronger governance to address institutional weaknesses and enhance the DRC’s economic resilience

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Exogenous shock and macroeconomic stability
• Language: French
• Keywords: Exogenous shocks, Macroeconomic stability, Economic diversification, Commodity dependence (mineral exports), Structural reforms
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E60 - General; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F44 - International Business Cycles; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q33 - Resource Booms

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