On the Problem of Breathing, Eating, & Drinking Poison: An introduction to problem solving, nobility of purpose under adverse circumstances, and the search for truth with Sir Karl Popper on Prince Edward Island

Funk, Matt (2008): On the Problem of Breathing, Eating, & Drinking Poison: An introduction to problem solving, nobility of purpose under adverse circumstances, and the search for truth with Sir Karl Popper on Prince Edward Island.

Abstract

This paper introduces Karl Popper's approach to problem solving in the social sciences. These methods fundamentally represent the scientific method of the natural sciences. Popper's problem solving technique is outlined in six steps, including an introductory treatment of his solution to Hume's Problem of Induction. These six steps are then applied in the form of a test and logical deduction of our illustrative theory: Cancer rates on Prince Edward Island have dramatically increased as a result of an extraordinary increase (900% in the past decade) in potato production, and a corollary increase of secondary agricultural inputs, namely an increase of chlorothalonil (trade name: Bravo) applications in less than ten years. We conclude our theory is true and, in order to complete our demonstration of Popper's methods, open this theory to criticism and refutations. APPENDIX A offers a brief review of relevant literature on the philosophy of science, and APPENDIX B offers readers a brief introduction to the fundamentals of relevant island-based methods.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: scientific method; karl popper; truth; falsity; probability theory; the problem of induction; industrial agriculture; prince edward island; insularity; manufacture of consent; the tragedy of the commons
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B0 - General; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D80 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B41 - Economic Methodology

References

Abassi, J. (2004). It's not easy being green : People, potatoes, and pesticides on prince edward island. Ann

Arbor, Mich.: Umi.

Anderson, Thomas R. (2004). 'Observation, hypothesis-testing, and discovery in oceanography', Oceanography, Vol. 17, No. 4, December 2004: http://www.tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/17_4/17.4_anderson.pdf

Anon (1999) How to write a Dissertation or Bedtime Reading for People who do not have Time to Sleep, 12pp, http://www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/dec/essay.dissertation.html.

Archbar, M., Wintonick, P., Symansky, A., & Chomsky, N. (1992). Manufacturing consent. Montreal: National Film Board.

Archbar, M., & Simpson, B. (2003). The Corporation Film: About the Film. Retrieved 12/10/2007, 2007, from http://www.thecorporation.com/index.cfm?page_id=2

Arnason, R., Felt, L., Bartmann, B., Cairns, D. K., & 20 UPEI. IIS. (1995). The north atlantic fisheries : Successes, failures and challenges. Charlottetown, P.E.I.: IIS.

Baldacchino, G. (2007). A world of islands : An island studies reader. Charlottetown, P.E.I.; Malta: IIS; Miller House.

Baldacchino, G., Greenwood, R., MacKinnon, W. E., Bartmann, B., & UPEI. IIS. (1998). Competing strategies of socio-economic development for small islands. Charlottetown, P.E.I.: IIS, UPEI.

Baldacchino, G., Milne, D., Bartmann, B., Srebrnik, H. F., Paterson, R., Jolliffe, L., et al. (2000). Lessons from the political economy of small islands : The resourcefulness of jurisdiction. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Benz, M., & Frey, B. S. (Online early release). Being independent is a great thing. Economica, 0(0), ???-???.

Berry, W. (2005). The way of ignorance and other essays. Emeryville, Calif.; Berkeley, Calif.: Shoemaker & Hoard; Distributed by Publishers Group West. Bridges, D., & Smith, R. (2006). Philosophy, Methodology and Educational Research: Introduction. Journal of Philosophy of Education, 40(2), 131-135.

Butts, Robert E. (ed.) (1989). William whewell: theory of scientific method. Hackett Publishing Company, Indianapolis/Cambridge.

Cairns, D. K. (1992). Fisheries management on Prince Edward Island : insular autonomy or Pax Ottawa?. Charlottetown: Institute of Island Studies.

Carlquist, S. J. (1965). Island life: a natural history of the islands of the world (1st ed.). Garden City, N.Y.: Published for the American Museum of Natural History by the Natural History Press.

Carlquist, S. J. (1974). Island biology. New York: Columbia University Press.

Carson, R. (1962). Silent spring. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

CBC. (2007a). Pesticides could be killing lobster larvae.(2007).

CBC. (2007b). Wilmot River recovery from fish kill in question.

Chinneck, John W. (1998) How to Organize your Thesis, 8pp, http://www.sce.carleton.ca/faculty/chinneck/thesis.html.

Chomsky, N. (1992). Excerpts from Manufacturing Consent, Noam Chomsky interviewed by various interviewers. Retrieved 1/18/2008, 2008, from http://www.chomsky.info/interviews/1992----02.htm

Chomsky, N. (1997). Noam Chomsky on Post Modernism. Retrieved 11/4/2007, 2007, from http://www.tamilnation.org/oneworld/chomsky.htm

Cournot, A. A. (1838). Researches into the mathematical principles of the theory of wealth. New York; London: Macmillan; Macmillan.

Darwin, C. (1859). On the origin of species by means of natural selection, or the preservation of favoured races in the struggle for life (A facsimile of the first edition by Wildside Press, Holicong, PA, U.S.A., 2003 ed.). London: John Murray, Albermarle Street.

Darwin, C. (1883). The descent of man and selection in relation to sex. New York: D. Appleton and Company.

De Botton, A. (2001). The consolations of philosophy (1st Vintage International ed.). New York: Vintage Books.

Delaney, J. (2006). The epoch times | potato farms a hotbed for cancer? Retrieved 11/1/2007, 2007, from http://en.epochtimes.com/news/6-3-23/39627.html.

Descartes, R. (1637). Discourse on the method of rightly conducting the reason, and seeking truth in the sciences.(F.E. Sutcliffe English Translation, 1968). Penguin Books Ltd, Middlesex, England.

De Vany, A. S. (2004). Hollywood economics : how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry. London ; New York: Routledge.

Einstein, A. (1954). Ideas and opinions : Based on mein weltbild. New York: Crown Publishers.

Feyerabend, P. K. (1975) Against Method. London: Verso.

Frankfurt, H. G. (2005). On bullshit. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. (1) One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit. Everyone knows this. Each of us contributes his share. But we tend to take the situation for granted. Most people are rather confident of their ability to recognize bullshit and to avoid being taken in by it. So the phenomenon has not aroused much deliberate concern, nor attracted much sustained inquiry. In consequence, we have no clear understanding of what bullshit is, why there is so much of it, or what functions it serves. And we lack a conscientiously developed appreciation of what it means to us. In other words, we have no theory (Frankfurt 2005, p 1).

Frey, B. S. (1997). Not just for the money : an economic theory of personal motivation. Cheltenham, UK ; Brookfield, Vt.: Edward Elgar Pub.

Frey, B. S. (2000a). Was Bewirkt die Volkswirtschaftslehre? [English Abstract]. Perspektiven Der Wirtschaftspolitik, 1(1) 5-33.

Frey, B. S. (2000b). Why Economists Disregard Economic Methodology (http://www.iew.unizh.ch/wp/index.php ed.)Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, Universität Zürich

Frey, B. S. (2002). Publishing as Prostitution? Choosing Between One‘s Own Ideas and Academic Failure (http://www.iew.unizh.ch/wp/index.php ed.). Published in: Public Choice Vol. 116, 2003, 205-223: Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, Universität Zürich.

Fuller, S. (2003). Kuhn vs. popper. Cambridge, UK: Icon Books, Ltd.

Funk, M. (2007a). On the problem of global warming: A solution for william funk, albert gore and richard branson. IIS working paper. Abstract: This paper forwards the conjecture that, contrary to consensus, “The Problem of Global Warming,” is not the anthropogenic superheating of the Earth—because this is clearly not the problem—it is merely a single symptom of far more significant problems, which stem from the Problem of Induction. In short, The Problem of Induction has generated convenient myths which encourage men to act irrationally. Irrationality spawns and maintains irrational institutions which manufacture consent, drive irrational conspicuous consumption, and, moreover, foster hyperirrational resource consumption—which is not limited to the consumption of superheating fossil fuels. This paper proposes a variety of counter-intuitive, viable solutions, but concludes the problem may be insoluble, as the philosophical and methodological foundations which render dominant irrational agents and institutions unable to recognize the true nature of the problem and/or unwilling to act upon otherwise viable solutions.

Funk, M. (2007b). On the problem of global warming II: a brief history of a new & unpopular theory in an open letter to john gillis & ragnar arnason. IIS working paper. Abstract: This paper traces the history, evolution, and development of this new and unpopular theory. Funk, M. (2007c). On the problem of dependent people: natural resource valuation errors in atlantic canadian Island Jurisdictions. IIS working paper. Abstract: Prince Edward Island's Economics, Statistics and Federal Fiscal Relations Division's 33rd Annual Statistical Review theorized (reported) the total value of 2006 fish landings was CAD 166.6 MM. This paper refutes this conjecture: The total value of fish landings for 2006 was approximately CAD 416.5 MM. Furthermore, this paper submits this error has been consistently generated for all 33 years that the Annual Statistical Review has been published. Moreover, this entrenched, systemic error has promoted far more significant problems: a ripple-effect of bias throughout all relative natural resource valuations and destructive land-use policies. These significant problems include (1) The Problem of Continental Economics and (2) The Problem of Dependent People. Island Bioeconomic Problem Solving comparitive models propose tentative solutions by contrasting fishery management methodology and practice amongst dependent Canadian islanders with the fishery management methodology and practices amongst independent Icelandic islanders. In conclusion, the possibilities that independent people enjoy higher levels of rationality, efficiency, happiness, economic sustainability, general well-being, and are thus, ceteris paribus, less likely to commit errors associated with The Problem of Induction are discussed. Likewise, this paper suggests dependent people are more likely to exhibit irrational behaviour, develop deeper dependencies, and to contribute to a wide-array of systemic errors, such as those which exacerbate The Problem of Global Warming.

Funk, M. (2007d). On the problem of hollywood economics: de vany's error—george lucas knows something. IIS working paper. Abstract: Hayek (1991) lamented the difficulty in distinguishing between economics and excrement, and Hemingway (1958) noted “The most essential gift for a good writer is a built-in, shock-proof, bullshit detector.” In this spirit and within the context of Frankfurt's (2004) Theory of Bullshit, this paper constructs a bullshit detector for economics. This apparatus is carefully calibrated to detect the Seven Deadly Sins of 'Hollywood Economics': Hubris, Intellectual Dishonesty, Greed, Mathematical Mania, Physics Fetishes, Conditions of Emptiness, and Sunspots. We trace the philosophical and methodological origin of these traits to its source, The Problem of Induction, then illustrate with examples from Plato to the present, including detailed analysis from the illuminating cases of Long Term Capital Management and William Stanley Jevons' sunspot theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate the contemporary effectiveness of this apparatus by detecting hereto undetected economic bullshit, namely Arthur de Vany's (2004) Hollywood Economics: How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry. In the process, we falsify de Vany's 'Nobody knows anything' theory and advance our replacement theory: George Lucas knows something.

Funk, M. (2007e). On the problem of sustainable economic development: introducing island bioeconomics problem solving & an economic theory of value. IIS working paper. Abstract: This paper presents a solution to an open problem in economics: Stigler's 1982 Problem of Value. This universal solution is based upon relative geographical insularity. Ever since Menger's 1883 Problems of Economics and Sociology, conscientious economists have understood the implications of Stigler's Problem of Value; ever since the Silent Spring of 1962, conscientious people everywhere have intuitively understood Stigler's Problem of Value. Unfortunately, this near-universal understanding has culminated in a thoroughly misguided quest for Sustainable Economic Development. Over the past century, a landfill of literature dedicated to this topic has revealed a significant and near-universal error: Those most able to navigate the perilous seas of economics, astutely demonstrate that neoclassical economic theory fails to pass the test of the second law of thermodynamics, then proceed to report this finding as if at long last Stigler's Problem of Value had been solved. Text books, refereed journals, and working papers (especially those denoting “Ecological Economics” as key words) alike conclude that, based upon this revolutionary new perspective, we are now positioned to reshape economic theory and policy. The primary problem, which appears to elude them all is this: economics is a derivative science, not a primary science. This paper employs Island Bioeconomics Problem Solving—an island-based economic modelling technique—in order to demonstrate this fundamental error, and the irrational economic errors and ecological degradation it is generating. Lessons are drawn from Iceland, Prince Edward Island, and beyond. Our Economic Theory of Value based on relative insularity axiomates an inverse relationship between relative insularity and economic development. This theory produces a robust, innovative and counterintuitive solution for Sustainable Economic Development, and, perhaps a tenable solution to The Problem of Global Warming.

Galilei, G. (1638). Dialogues Concerning Two New Sciences. 2002 Ed. Running Press Books: Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A. Edited with Commentary by Stephen Hawking (2002).

- - - . (1633). Abjuration before the Inquisition for heresy. Proclaimed and signed on 22 June 1633, Convent della Minerva, Rome, Italy.

Hayek, F. A. (1944). The road to serfdom (2001 ed.). London ; New York: Routledge Classics. Hayek, F. A. (1960). The constitution of liberty (1978 ed.). London: Routledge. LIBERTY AND EQUALITY: He who confuses political liberty with freedom and political equality with similarity has never thought for five minutes about either. Nothing can be unconditional: consequently nothing can be free. Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it. The duke inquires contemptuously whether his gamekeeper is the equal of the Astronomer Royal; but he insists that they shall both be hanged equally if they murder him. The notion that the colonel need be a better man than the private is as confused as the notion that the keystone need be stronger than the coping stone. Where equality is undisputed, so also is subordination. Equality is fundamental in every department of social organization. The relation of superior to inferior excludes good manners (Shaw 1903, lns 23-30).

Hayek, F. A. (1974). The pretense of knowledge. The American Economic Review, 79(6, Nobel Lectures and 1989 Survey of Members), 3-7. http://links.jstor.org.rlproxy.upei.ca/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198912%2979%3A6%3C3%3ATPOK%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7

Hayek, F. A., Bartley, W. W., & Kresge, S. (1991). The trend of economic thinking : Essays on political economists and economic history. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Herman, E. S., & Chomsky, N. (1988). Manufacturing consent : The political economy of the mass media (2002, Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky ; with a new introduction by the authors.; Updated ed. of: Manufacturing consent. 1st ed. c1988.; Includes bibliographical references and index. ed.). New York: Pantheon Books.

Hume, D. (1739). A treatise of human nature: Being an attempt to introduce the experimental method of reasoning into moral subjects. (1) Our foregoing method of reasoning will easily convince us, that there can be no demonstrative arguments to prove, that those instances, of which we have had no experience, resemble those, of which we have had experience (Hume 1739, Book I, Vol I, p 137). (2) To falsify a knowledge-claim is to provide evidence that it is false. Since the time of David Hume, empiricist philosophy of science has struggled with the problem of induction: namely, how is it possible to justify inference, from a finite set of instances, to the truth of a universal law whose scope is potentially infinite? In the absence of a convincing answer to this question, our everyday and scientific belief in a regular, ordered, and predictable universe must seem to be a physiologically indispensable, but still irrational, habit of mind. The original approach to this problem pioneered by Karl Popper involved a reasoned rejection of the question itself. Popper accepted that the problem of induction was insoluble, but it did not follow that science was irrational, or that it could not progress. Instead of seeing discovery of the truth as the aim of science, we should, rather, see scientific activity as a systematic attempt to ‘falsify’—or refute—bold and imaginative conjectures about the nature of the world. Popper's formulation of this principle is widely acknowledged as one of the most original contributions to the modern philosophy of science1. (3) It took a remarkably long time before the novelty of the intellectual situation was grasped. Few realized what had happened. David Hume…saw that a great step forward had been taken, but he did not understand just how great and how radical this advance in human knowledge really was. I am afraid that even today many people still do not fully understand this [italics mine] (Popper 1992, p 36). (4) The classical notion of science as true, secure and sufficiently justified knowledge still flourishes even today [italics mine]. But it was overtaken sixty years ago by the Einsteinian Revolution; by Einstein’s gravitational theory. The outcome of this revolution is that Einstein’s theory, whether true or false, demonstrates that knowledge in the classical sense, secure knowledge, certainly is impossible. Kant was right: our theories are free creations of our intellect, which we try to impose upon nature. But we are only rarely successful in guessing the truth; and we can never be certain whether we have succeeded. We must make do with conjectural knowledge [italics mine] (Popper 1992, p 37). (5) Hume has permanently influenced the development of the best of philosophers who came after him. Man has an intense desire for assured knowledge. That is why Hume’s clear message seemed crushing [italics mine] (Einstein 1956 p 21-22). (6) There is a problem in inference well-known as the problem of induction. It is a problem that has been haunting science for a long time, but hard science has not been as harmed by it as the social sciences, particularly economics, even more the branch of financial economics (Taleb 2001, p 117). (7) The assumption that economists (italics Hayek’s) can find predictable solutions to economic problems is undoubtedly the most inhibiting force in… economics. It has led to the increasing isolation of theoretical economists from the day-to-day practitioners of the subject—the actual participants in an economy, the consumers and the producers (Hayek 1991, p 9). (8) Kant, in his Critique of Pure Reason, asserted under the influence of Hume that pure speculation or reason, whenever it ventures into a field in which it cannot possibly be checked by experience, is liable to get involved in contradictions or ‘anti-anomies’ and to produce what he unambiguously described as ‘mere fancies’ ; ‘nonsense’ ; ‘illusions’ ; ‘a sterile dogmatism’ ; and ‘a superficial pretension to the knowledge of everything’ (Popper, 1945, vII, p38). (9) Reared on Merton’s and Scholes teachings of efficient markets, the professors [Nobel Laureates Robert S. Merton and Myron Scholes] actually believed that prices would go and go directly where the models said they should. The professors’ conceit was to think that models could forecast limits of behavior. In fact, the models could tell them what was reasonable or what was predicable based on the past” (Lowenstein 2000, p. 234). (10) Belief that tomorrow’s risks can be inferred by from yesterday’s prices and volatilities prevails at virtually every investment bank and trading desk.” (Ibid, p. 235).

IU. (2008). Thesis Statements. Retrieved 1/21/2008, 2008, from http://www.indiana.edu/~wts/pamphlets/thesis_statement.shtml

Jarecki, E., Shipman, S., McCain, J., Vidal, G.,

Eisenhower, J. S. D., et al. (2006). Why we fight. Culver City, CA: Sony Pictures Home Entertainment. Jarvie, I. C., & Pralong, S. (1999). Popper's Open society after fifty years. London ; New York: Routledge. http://rlproxy.upei.ca/login?url=http://site.ebrary.com.rlproxy.upei.ca/lib/upei/Doc?id=10017068

Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Kurlansky, M. (1997). Cod : A biography of the fish that changed the world. New York: Walker and Co. Levine, Joseph S. (1999) Writing and Presenting your Dissertation, 17pp, www.betteredit.com/how-to-write-thesis-levine.shtml.

Lippmann, W. (1922). Public opinion (1965th ed.). New York: Free Press.

Lowenstein, R. (2000). When Genius Failed : The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management (1st ed.). New York: Random House.

Mayr, Ernst. (2004) What Makes Biology Unique : Considerations on the Autonomy of a Scientific Discipline. West Nyack, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Mead, M. (1928). Coming of age in samoa : A psychological study of primitive youth for western civilization (1964 ed.). New York, N.Y.: William Morrow.

Menger, C. (1883). Problems of economics and sociology (untersuchungen über die methode der socialwissenschaften und der politischen oekonomie insbesondere). 1963 edition. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.

McMahon, Timothy F. (1998). Carcinogenicity of chlorothalonil: data in support of a non-linear mechanism for carcinogenicity. The United States of America Environmental Protection Agengy Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) Risk Assessment and Science Support Branch, Antimicrobials Division Senior Toxicologist Report, Session 4: July 1998 Meeting: http://www.epa.gov/scipoly/sap/meetings/1998/july/session4.pdf Abstract: The Office of Pesticide Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), has recently characterized the fungicide Chlorothalonil as “likely” to be a human carcinogen” by all routes of exposure (Memorandum dated October 20, 1997 from Timothy F. McMahon to Walter Waldrop/Andrew Ertman). This decision is based on: 1) evidence of increased incidence of renal adenoma, carcinoma, and adenoma/carcinoma combined in Fischer 344 rats following chronic administration of chlorothalonil at doses of 15 and 175 mg/kg/day; 2) papilloma and/or papilloma/carcinoma of the forestomach combined in Fischer 344 rats at 175 mg/kg/day, and 3) increased incidence of forestomach carcinoma in CD-1 mice at 214 mg/kg/day. Based on the evidence characterizing the mode of action for production of renal and forestmach tumors, the Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) concluded that Chlorothalonil met the cancer risk assessment guideline criteria for non-linearity of the dose response and that the Margin-of-Exposure approach be used for purposes of cancer risk assessment for chlorothalonil. Following is background material leading to this determination. Mittelstaedt, M. (2006, 06/12/2006). PEI'S killing fields: 'Pesticides are what is killing our kids'. Globe & Mail. Abstract: PEI would be a good place to shed more light on the health effects of agricultural chemicals because areas such as Kensington have some of the highest airborne concentrations of pesticides around farm fields in the world, and a sizeable rural population literally living on the doorstep of the spraying (p 1).

Nasar, S. (1998). A beautiful mind : a biography of John Forbes Nash, Jr., winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, 1994. New York: Simon & Schuster.

Nash, J. F. (1950). Non-cooperative games from http://www.princeton.edu/mudd/news/faq/topics/Non-Cooperative_Games_Nash.pdf

Nash, J. (1951). Non-Cooperative Games. The Annals of Mathematics, 54(2), 286-295. http://links.jstor.org.rlproxy.upei.ca /sici?sici=0003-486X%28195109%292%3A54%3A2%3C286%3ANG%3E2.0.CO%3B2-G

Novaczek, I. (2007). Submission to the standing committee for agriculture, forestry and environment. Submitted by Dr Irene Novaczek, Director IIS, UPEI at Charlottetown, PEI, Tuesday 11 December 2007. Pesticides are designed to kill, and scientific evidence increasingly supports the public’s perception that exposure to even small amounts - whether in the air we breathe, the water we drink or the food we eat - is likely to increase our risks of contracting cancer or suffering other impacts such as thyroid dysfunction and nervous system impairment. Of particular concern are impacts on children which can include increased risk of ADD/ADHD and violent personality disorders; impacts on pregnant women and both men and women of childbearing age, in the form of increased rates of birth defects; and impacts on people whose health is already poor, such as the elderly infirm and people with highly sensitive or compromised immune systems. We know from the 1999 provincial water quality report, and from the federal government’s air quality research, that mixtures of pesticides at parts per billion concentrations can be found in domestic wells close to potato and blueberry fields; that an even greater array of toxins are detectable in PEI streams and rivers; and that airborne pesticides, especially the fungicide chlorothalonil, are in every breath we take over the summer and autumn agricultural season. This is not just a human health issue but one that affects the whole food chain. Recent laboratory studies performed by Dr Wayne Fairchild of DFO indicate that such low concentrations (ppb) of certain commonly used insecticides are lethal or damaging to larval lobsters. Clams in estuaries such as the Mill River already exhibit a haemolytic disease that in other jurisdictions has been linked to toxins in the environment. And fish kills continue to plague our rivers despite efforts to control runoff of pesticides and fertilizers from agricultural land.... All across North America rates of cancer, thyroid dysfunction, learning disabilities, birth defects, environmental sensitivity and other debilitating health conditions are unacceptably high. The costs of these trends are crippling for health care systems, social programs and budgets of all levels of government. Demographic research reveals that on PEI, despite the absence of heavy industry, the bucolic landscape and appearance of pristine environments that attract tourists, we suffer from higher than average rates of cancer compared to other provinces, even after controlling for our ageing population. Thyroid problems, ADD in children, asthma and environmental diseases are also serious concerns.... On PEI, we have a population of 138,000 on a total land base of 566,000 hectares. Just under half of the land is used for agriculture; between 6 and 9% is under municipal governance - around 40,000 hectares. PEI’s annual pesticide sales amount to over 1.1 million kg of active toxic ingredients/yr: that’s 8 kg/yr for every man, woman and child living on the island – far in excess of the North American average (1.5 kg/person/yr). Estimates from other jurisdictions suggest that 90% of all pesticides sold are applied for agricultural purposes, with about 10% being used at the household level. Urban use of pesticides, although less than agricultural use in terms of total annual weight, is of concern because these applications are made intensively, in environments where humans are most concentrated. Also, urban pesticide users apply a relatively greater amount of highly toxic insecticides, whereas agricultural chemicals used on PEI are predominantly (by weight) fungicides and herbicides. Typically, application rates for agricultural pesticides are in the range of 0.8-1 kg of active ingredients per hectare. On PEI we may have an anomalous situation, judging from Environment Canada research that shows that potato fields may receive more than 6 kg ai/hectare over the growing season. In general, urban garden applications of pesticides in Canada are similarly intense, averaging 3-4 kg ai/hectare. Much of this intensive pesticide application–probably in excess of 100,000 kg ai/yr–is being applied in our top 10 most populous municipalities where over 70% of Islanders live and many more work–most notably in Charlottetown and Summerside (pp 1-3).

Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (2004). Theory of games and economic behavior (60th anniversary ed.). Princeton, N.J. ; Woodstock: Princeton University Press.

North, D. C. Corporate Leadership in an Uncertain World. Retrieved 10/22/2007, 2007, from http://www.conference-board.org/publications/annualEssay.cfm

Popper, K. R. (1945). The open society and its enemies. London: G. Routledge & Sons, Ltd.

Popper, K. R. (1956). ON THE NON-EXISTENCE OF SCIENTIFIC METHOD. (preface from 1956 edition, Vol. I of the Postscript to 1983 edition of The Logic of Scientific Discovery edited by W.W. Bartley III ed., ). London: Routledge.

Popper, K. R. (1959). The logic of scientific discovery [Logik der Forschung, 1935, Vienna, Austria] . London ; New York: Routledge. Abstract: This is the book where Popper first introduced his famous "solution" to the problem of induction. Originally publish in German in 1934, this version is Popper's own English translation undertaken in the 1950s. It should go without saying that the book is a classic in philosophic epistemology--perhaps the most important such work to appear since Hume's "An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding." Popper argues that scientific theories can never be proven, merely tested and corroborated. Scientific inquiry is distinguished from all other types of investigation by its testability, or, as Popper put, by the falsifiability of its theories. Unfalsifiable theories are unscientific precisely because they cannot be tested (Nyquist, 2001). (1) Emile Zola described a work of art as a corner of nature seen through a temperament. The philosopher Karl Popper, the economist F.A. Hayek, and the art historian K. H. Gombrich have shown that the creative process in science and art consists of two main activities: an imaginative jumping forward to a new abstraction or simplified representation, followed by a critical looking back to see how nature appears in the light of the new vision (Peter Mitchell, Nobel Banquet Speech, 1978). (2) My characteristics as a scientist stem from a non-conformist upbringing, a sense of being something of an outsider, and looking for different perceptions in everything from novels, to art to experimental results. I like complexity, and am delighted by the unexpected. Ideas interest me. I was influened early on by reading Arthur Koestler and Edward de Bono, and more recently by the writings of Karl Popper... (Peter C. Doherty, Nobel Lecture, 1996). (3) Popper believed the “discovery was not a matter of logic” but rather the application of methodology, which fits the discovery of cointegration. This insight intrigues me. (Clive Granger, Nobel Lecture, 2003).

Popper, K. R. (1962). Conjectures and refutations : The growth of scientific knowledge (First Edition Preface from the 1963 Routledge edition ed.)

Popper, K. R. (1963). Conjectures and refutations : The growth of scientific knowledge (Originally published: 5th ed., rev. London ; New York : 2002. ed.). London ; New York: Routledge Classics.

Popper, K. R. (1992). In search of a better world [Auf der Suche nach einer besseren Welt.] (Laura J. Bennett, with additional material by Melitta Mew Trans.). London ; New York: Routledge. All the great scientists realized that every solution to a scientific problem raises many new and unsolved problems. Our knowledge of our ignorance, becomes increasingly conscious, detailed and precise, the more we learn about the world. Scientific research is the best method we have for obtaining information about ourselves and about our ignorance. It leads us to the important insight that there may be great differences between us with regard to minor details of what wed may perhaps know, yet we are all equal in our infinite ignorance (, p 40).

Popper, K. R. (1999). All life is problem solving [Alles Leben ist Problemlösen.] . London ; New York: Routledge.

Popper, K. R., & Bartley, W. W. (1956). Realism and the aim of science (1983, including Popper's introduction from the 1982 edition and Popper's preface from 1956 edition ed.). London: Routledge.

Reichenbach, Hans. (1930). Erkenntnis, Vol. 1

Reichenbach, H. (1938). On probability and induction, Philosophy of Science, 5, 21–45.

Reichenbach, H. (1940). On the justification of induction, The Journal of Philosophy, 37, 97–103.

Reichenbach, H. (1942). From copernicus to einstein. New York: Alliance Book Corp. Reichenbach, H. (1949).The theory of probability, University of California Press.

Reichenbach, Hans. (1951). University of California Press (full, searchable online version at Google Books: http://books.google.com/books?vid=ISBN9780520010550. Abstract: This book represents a new approach to philosophy. It treats philosophy as not a collection of systems, but as a study of problems. Rowbottom, D.P., Aiston, S.J. (2006). The Myth of 'Scientific Method' in Contemporary Educational Research. Journal of Philosophy of Education, 40(2), 137-156.

Russell, B. (1908). Mathematical Logic as Based on the Theory of Types. American Journal of Mathematics, 30(3), 222-262. http://links.jstor.org.rlproxy.upei.ca/sici?sici=0002-9327%28190807%2930%3A3%3C222%3AMLABOT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-G

Russell, B. (1915). War, the offspring of fear. London: Union of Democratic Control.

Russell, B. (1919). Introduction to mathematical philosophy (1950th ed.). London: G. Allen and Unwin.

Russell, B. (1922). Free thought and official propaganda. London: Watts & co., etc.

Russell, B. (1928). Sceptical essays. London: G. Allen & Unwin. (1) The search for happiness based upon untrue beliefs is neither very noble nor very glorious. There is a stark joy in the unflinching perception of our true place in the world, and a more vivid drama than any that is possible to those who hide behind the enclosing walls of myth (p 21).

Russell, B. (1938). Power. London: Routledge Classics 2004 edition, preface by Samuel Brittan, introduction by Kirk Willis. Economic power, unlike military power, is not primary, but derivative. Within one State, it depends on law; in international dealings it is only on minor issues that it depends on law, but when large issues are involved it depends upon war or the threat of war. It has been customary to accept economic power without analysis, and this has led, in modern times, to an undue emphasis upon economics, as opposed to war and propaganda, in the causal interpretation of history. Apart from the economic power of labour, all other economic power, in its ultimate analysis, consists in being able to decide, by the use of armed force if necessary, who shall be allowed to stand upon a given piece of land and to put things into it and take things from it [all italics mine, p 95].

Russell, B. (1940). An inquiry into meaning and truth. London: Allen and Unwin. Russell, B. (1945). A history of western philosophy, and its connection with political and social circumstances from the earliest times to the present day. New York: Simon and Schuster.

Russell, B. (1948). Human knowledge, its scope and limits. New York: Simon and Schuster. Russell, B. (1953). The Functions of a Teacher. Music Educators Journal, 40(1), 64. http://links.jstor.org.rlproxy.upei.ca/sici?sici=0027-4321%28195309%2F10%2940%3A1%3C64%3ATFOAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-R Russell, B. (1956). Logic and knowledge : essays, 1901-1950. New York: Macmillan. Shaw, G. B. (1903). Man and superman: Maxims for revolutionists. Retrieved 10/30/2007, 2007, from http://www.bartleby.com/157/6.html

Schultz, Bart. (2007). Mr. smith does not go to washington. JF Philosophy of the Social Sciences, JO Philosophy of the Social Sciences, September 1, 2007, Vol. 37, Issue 3, pp 366 – 386, http://pos.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/37/3/366.

Sokal, A. D. (1996a). A physicist experiments with cultural studies. Retrieved 10/27/2007, 2007, from http://physics.nyu.edu/~as2/#papers

Sokal, A. D. (1996b). A plea for reason, evidence and logic. Retrieved 10/27/2007, 2007, from http://physics.nyu.edu/~as2/#papers

Sokal, A. D. (1996c). Transgressing the boundaries: An afterword. Retrieved 10/27/2007, 2007, from http://physics.nyu.edu/~as2/#papers

Sokal, A. D. (1996d). Transgressing the boundaries: Toward a transformative hermeneutics of quantum gravity. Social Text, (46/47, Science Wars), 217-252. http://links.jstor.org.rlproxy.upei.ca/sici?sici=0164-2472%28199621%2F22%290%3A46%2F47%3C217%3ATTBTAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-S Stanford. (2004). Thomas Kuhn (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy). Last updated 13 August 2004. Retrieved 1/21/2008, 2008, from http://plato.stanford.edu.rlproxy.upei.ca/entries/thomas-kuhn/

Steinberg, Jeffrey. (2003). Profile: leo strauss, fascist godfather of the neo-cons. Executive Intelligence Review, 21 March 2003.

Stigler, G. J. (1982). The process and progress of economics. Retrieved 11/5/2007, 2007, from http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1982/stigler-lecture.html Abstract: The lecture focuses on the reasons that new ideas are accepted or rejected by a science. A distinction is drawn between pre-scientific and scientific stages of a discipline. The diverse fates of new ideas are illustrated by a variety of episodes in the history of economics, including the economics of information and the theory of economic regulation. (1) In economics the most fundamental of these central problems is the theory of value. The theory of value must explain how the comparative values of different goods and services are established. Until that problem is solved, it is not possible to analyse for scientific purposes what will be produced and in what quantities, how the resources will be employed in producing the menu of outputs, and how the resources will be valued. Without a theory of value the economist can have no theory of international trade nor possibly a theory of money. This central problem of value does not change in its essential content if one seeks to explain values in rural or urban societies, or in agricultural or industrial societies. Indeed, if the problem of value were so chameleon like as to alter its nature whenever the economic or political system altered, each epoch in economic life would require its own theory, and short epochs would get short-lived theories (p 61).

Taleb, N. (2001). Fooled by randomness : The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life (2005, 2nd Edition ed.). New York.

Taleb, N. (2007). The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable (1st ed.). New York: Random House.

Tarski, Alfred. (1941). Introduction to logic and to the methodology of deductive sciences (Third edition revised 1965, translation by Olaf Helmer). New York: Oxford University Press.

Wallace, R. (1995). Braveheart. Retrieved 10/16/2007, 2007, from

Whewell, William. (1849). Reprinted under ‘Mr Mill’s Logic’ in Butts, Robert E. (1968). William whewell's theory of scientific method. University of Pittsburgh Press.

Zalta, E. N. (2006). Karl popper.