In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? A roadmap to 2050

Zhang, ZhongXiang (2009): In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? A roadmap to 2050.

Abstract

Given that China is already the world’s largest carbon emitter and its emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its industrialization and urbanization, there is no disagreement that China eventually needs to take on binding greenhouse gas emissions caps. However, the key challenges are when that would occur and what credible interim targets China would need to take on during this transition period. This paper takes these challenges by mapping out the roadmap for China’s specific commitments towards 2050. Specifically, I suggest that China make credible quantified domestic commitments during the second commitment period, commit to voluntary no lose targets during the third commitment period, adopt binding carbon intensity targets during the fourth commitment period, and take on binding emissions caps starting the fifth commitment period and aimed for the global convergence of per capita emissions by 2050. These proposed commitments should be viewed as China’s political commitments, not necessarily China’s actual takings in the ongoing international climate change negotiations, in order to break the current political impasse between developed and developing countries. It is worthwhile China considering these political commitments either on its own or through a joint statement with U.S. and other major countries, provided that a number of conditions can be worked out. These commitments are principles, and still leave flexibility for China to work out details as international climate change negotiations move on. But in the meantime, they signal well ahead that China is seriously committed to addressing climate change issues, alleviate, if not completely remove, U.S. and other industrialized country’s concerns about when China would get in, an indication that the whole world has long awaited from China, help U.S. to take on long-expected emissions commitments, and thus pave the way for reaching an international climate agreement at Copenhagen.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Carbon intensity target; Binding emissions caps; Post-Kyoto climate negotiations; Energy saving; Renewable energy; Clean development mechanism; China; USA; India
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q52 - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs ; Distributional Effects ; Employment Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q48 - Government Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O53 - Asia including Middle East; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q58 - Government Policy

References

ClimateWire (2009), India Rejects Comparison with China’s Emissions, March 26.

Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (UNDESA, 2009), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpp.

EIA (2003), International Energy Outlook 2003, DOE/EIA0484(2003), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Washington, DC.

EIA (2009), International Energy Outlook 2009, DOE/EIA-0484(2009), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Washington, DC, May 27, Available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/.

Frankel, J.A. (2009), An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades, NBER Working Paper No. 14876, April, Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14876.pdf.

Hu, A. (2009), A New Approach at Copenhagen, April 6, Available at: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2895-A-new-approach-at-Copenhagen-2-.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

National Bureau of Statistics of China (2008), China Statistical Yearbook 2008, China Statistics Press, Beijing.

National Bureau of Statistic (NBS), National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration (2008), Bulletin on Energy Use per Unit of GDP and other Indicators by Region, Beijing, July 14, Available at: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/qttjgb/qgqttjgb/t20080714_402491870.htm.

National Bureau of Statistic (NBS), National Development and Reform Commission and Office of The National Energy Leading Group (2007), Bulletin on Energy Use per Unit of GDP and other Indicators by Region, Beijing, July 12, Available at: http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newjn/t20070809_152873.htm.

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP, 2007), China Now No. 1 in CO2 Emissions; USA in Second Position, June 19, Available at: http://www.mnp.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/Chinanowno1inCO2emissionsUSAinsecondposition.html.

Reuters (2009a), U.S. Praises China’s Climate Efforts; Urges More, March 29, Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE52S1WP20090329.

Reuters (2009b), U.S. Seeks Reins in New Set of Climate Talks, April 24, Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE53N12720090424.

Stern, N. (2008), Key Elements of a Global Deal on Climate Change, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, April, Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/granthamInstitute/publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_30Apr08.pdf

World Bank (2008), World Development Indicators 2008, Washington, DC.

Zhang, Z.X. (1995), Energy Conservation in China: An International Perspective, Energy Policy, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 159-166.

Zhang, Z.X. (1997), The Economics of Energy Policy in China: Implications for Global Climate Change, New Horizons in Environmental Economics Series, Edward Elgar.

Zhang, Z.X. (2000), Can China Afford to Commit itself an Emissions Cap? An Economic and Political Analysis, Energy Economics, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 587-614.

Zhang, Z.X. (2003), Why Did the Energy Intensity Fall in China’s Industrial Sector in the 1990s?, The Relative Importance of Structural Change and Intensity Change, Energy Economics, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 625-638.

Zhang, Z.X. (2004), Open Trade with the U.S. without Compromising Canada’s Ability to Comply with its Kyoto Target, Journal of World Trade, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 155-182.

Zhang, Z.X. (2005), Sustainable Energy Development in China: Challenges Ahead to 2020, The Keynote Address at the International Conference on Staying Ahead of the Energy Scenarios, Bangkok, November 11.

Zhang, Z.X. (2007a), Why Has China not Embraced a Global Cap-and-Trade Regime?, Climate Policy, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 166-170.

Zhang, Z.X. (2007b), Greening China: Can Hu and Wen Turn a Test of their Leadership into a Legacy?, Presented at the Plenary Session on Sustainable Development at the first-ever Harvard College China-India Development and Relations Symposium, New York City, March 30 – April 2.

Zhang, Z.X. (2007c), Energy and Environmental Policy in Mainland China, The Keynote Address at the Cross-Straits Conference on Energy Economics and Policy, Organized by the Chinese Association for Energy Economics, Taipei, November 7-8.

Zhang, Z.X. (2008), Multilateral Trade Measures in a Post-2012 Climate Change Regime?: What Can Be Taken from the Montreal Protocol and the WTO?, Available at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1328548.

Zhang, Z.X. (2009a), How Far Can Developing Country Commitments Go in an Immediate Post-2012 Climate Regime?, Energy Policy, Vol. 37, pp. 1753-1757.

Zhang, Z.X. (2009b), Encouraging Developing Country Involvement in a Post-2012 Climate Change Regime: Carrots, Sticks or Both?, in Climate and Trade Policies in a Post-2012 World, United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva, Switzerland.

Zhang, Z.X. (2009c), Is It Fair to Treat China as a Christmas Tree to Hang Everybody’s Complaints? Putting its Own Energy Saving into Perspective, Energy Economics, doi:10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00042-2.