Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2009): Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009.

Abstract

Previously, we have revealed the presence of a reliable linear dependence between share prices of energy-related companies and the difference between CPI and core CPI: any change in share prices is transmitted into a proportional change in this difference two and half months later. The difference itself is characterized by sustainable trends reigning over seven to twenty-year intervals. As a result, the link between the share prices and the difference allows predicting the former over longer intervals. Since mid-2008, the previously observed trend has been undergoing a transition to a new trend. Accordingly, one may formulate two principal problems: “What is the dependence between share price and CPI during the transition?” and “When and how can one determine the properties of the new trend?” Currently available information on the CPI allows predicting the share prices between June and September 2009.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: COP, CVX, DVN, HAL, XOM, prediction, share price, CPI
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets; D - Microeconomics > D4 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References

Kitov, I., (2009). ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price, Journal of Applied Research in Finance, vol. 2(2) (in press)

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ), pp. 101-112.

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009a). A fair price for motor fuel in the United States, MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15039/01/MPRA_paper_15039.pdf

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009b). Sustainable trends in producer price indices, Journal of Applied Research in Finance, vol. 1(1) (in press)

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009c). Comparative modelling of selected S&P 500 share prices: IBM, DOV, PG, DD, APD, CVX, DVN, and HAL, (in preparation)