An Econometric Model of Tourism Demand in France

Botti, Laurent and Peypoch, Nicolas and Randriamboarison, Rado and Solonandrasana, Bernardin (2006): An Econometric Model of Tourism Demand in France. Published in: TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Refereed Journal of Tourism , Vol. 2, No. 1 (15 April 2007): pp. 115-126.

Abstract

This case study gives an overview of the tourism demand in France by using an econometric model. The study covers the period between 1975 and 2003. Five developed countries have been selected, and the choice of the countries is based upon the fact that continuous data on all relevant variables are available only for those countries. The results show a positive relationship between tourist expenditures and generating country GDP, and a negative relation between tourist expenditures and relative prices.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: tourism demand, tourist expenditures, national income, relative prices
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M1 - Business Administration; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

References

Akis, S. (1998). A compact econometric model of tourism demand for Turkey. Tourism Management, Vol.19, pp.99-102.

Chu, F.L. (1998). Forecasting tourism: a combined approach. Tourism Management, Vol.19, pp.515-520.

Artus, J.R. (1972). An econometric analysis of international travel. IMF Staff Papers, Vol.19, pp.579-614.

Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, Vol.49, pp.1057-1072.

Gray, H.P. (1966). The demand for international travel by the United States and Canada. International Economic Review, Vol.7, pp.83-92.

Li, G., Song, H. and Witt, S.F. (2005). Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research, Vol.44, pp.82-99.

Lim, C. (1997). Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism Research, Vol.24, pp.835-849.

MacKinnon, J.G. (1990). Critical values for cointegrating tests, in R.F. Engle and C.W. Granger (Eds.) Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press.

McAleer, M. (1994). Sherlock Holmes and the search for truth: A diagnostic tale. Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol.8, pp.317-370.

O’Hagan, J.W. and Harrison, M.J. (1984). Market shares of US tourist expenditure in Europe: An econometric analysis. Applied Economics, Vol.16, pp.919-931.

Ong, C. (1995). Tourism demand models: A critique. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Vol.39, pp.367-372.

Oum, T.H. (1989). Alternative demand models and their elasticity estimates. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol.1, pp.163-187.

Peyroutet, C. (1998). Le Tourisme en France. Paris, Nathan.

Quayson, J. and VAR, T. (1982). A tourism demand function for Okanagan BC, Tourism Management, Vol.3, pp.108-115.

Randriamboarison, R. (2001). La demande touristique: résumé des travaux empiriques. Unpublished paper. France: University of Perpignan.

Smeram, E., Witt, S.F. and Witt, C.A. (1992). Econometric forecasts: Tourism trends to 2000. Annals of Tourism Research, Vol.19, pp.450-466.

Witt, S. and Witt, C. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.11, pp.447-475.