Neves, J. Anchieta and Stocco, Leandro and Da Silva, Sergio (2007): Is Mercosur an optimum currency area?
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_2758.pdf Download (235kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We find that generalized purchasing power parity does not hold for Mercosur, and thus that the South American trade group does not constitute an optimum currency area. We also find that the role of the United States cannot be neglected in the region, and that high short run volatility of real exchange rates is accompanied by slow adjustment processes of between 2 and 16 years (PPP puzzle).
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Institution: | Federal University of Santa Catarina |
Original Title: | Is Mercosur an optimum currency area? |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | generalized purchasing power parity; optimum currency area; Mercosur; PPP puzzle |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration |
Item ID: | 2758 |
Depositing User: | Sergio Da Silva |
Date Deposited: | 17 Apr 2007 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 16:30 |
References: | Ahumada, H. and A. M. Martirena-Mantel (2001) Towards a potential monetary union in Latin America: Testing the endogeneity criteria for Mercosur, XVIII Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society. Alexander, V. and G. M. Von Furstenberg (2000) Monetary unions: A superior alternative to full dollarization in the long run, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 11, 20525. Bareboim, I. (2004) União monetária para Brasil e Argentina: Uma análise empírica, in La Cordinación Macroeconómica y la Cooperación Monetaria, sus Costos, Beneficios y Aplicabilidad en Acuerdos Regionales de Integración (Eds.) M. De La Cuba et al., INTAL/Inter-American Development Bank, Buenos Aires, pp. 4075. Bayoumi, T. and B. Eichengreen (1994) One money or many? Analyzing the prospects for monetary unification in various parts of the world, Princeton Studies in International Finance, 76. Bernstein, D. J. (2000) Generalized purchasing power parity and the case of the European Union as a successful currency area, Atlantic Economic Journal, 28, 38595. Calderon, C., A. Chong, and E. Stein (2007) Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different? Journal of International Economics, 71, 221. Da Silva, S. (2002) Classroom guide to the equilibrium exchange rate model, Economic Issues, 7, 110. De Grauwe, P. (2005) Economics of Monetary Union, Oxford University Press, New York. Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 42731. Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Econometrica, 49, 105772. Dickey, D. A. and S. G. Pantula (1987) Determining the order of differencing in autoregressive processes, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 45561. Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg, and J. H. Stock (1996) Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica, 64, 81336. Enders, W. and S. Hurn (1994) Theory and tests of generalized purchasing power parity: Common trends and real exchange rates in the Pacific Rim, Review of International Economics, 2, 17990. Enders, W. and S. Hurn (1997) Common trends and generalized purchasing power parity, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 43, 43743. Frankel, J. A. and A. K. Rose (1998) The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria, Economic Journal, 108, 100925. Fratianni, M. (2004) The case for monetary union in Mercosur, in Money Matters: Essays in Honor of Alan Walters (Ed.) P. Minford, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 79103. Hallwood, P., I. W. Marsh, and J. Scheibe (2004) An assessment of the case for monetary union or official dollarization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela, University of Connecticut Department of Economics Working Paper, 13. Johansen, S. (1988) Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 23154. Karras, G. (2003) The prospect of dollarization: Are the Americas an optimum currency area? in Aspects of Globalisation: Macroeconomic and Capital Market Linkages in the Integrated World Economy (Eds.) C. Tsoukis, G. M. Agiomirgianakis, and T. Biswas, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, pp. 18399. Kawasaki, K. and E. Ogawa (2006) What should the weights of the three major currencies be in a common currency basket in East Asia? Asian Economic Journal, 20, 75–94. Kenen, P. B. (1969) Theory of optimum currency areas: An eclectic view, in Monetary Problems of the International Economy (Eds.) R. A. Mundell and A. K. Swoboda, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 4160. Lee, M. (2003) Common trend and common currency: Australia and New Zealand, International Journal of Business and Economics, 2, 15565. Liang, H. (1999) Do Hong Kong SAR and China constitute an optimal currency area? An empirical test of the generalized purchasing power parity hypothesis, International Monetary Fund Working Paper, 99/79. Licandro-Ferrando, G. (2000) Un área monetária para el Mercosur? in Coordinación de Políticas Macroeconómicas en el MERCOSUR (Eds.) J. Carrera and F. Sturzenegger, Fondo de Cultura Económica, Buenos Aires, pp. 183222. Machinea, J. L. (2004) Mercosur: In Search of a New Agenda. Exchange Rate Instability in Mercosur: Causes, Problems and Possible Solutions, INTAL/Inter-American Development Bank, Buenos Aires. Mundell, R. (1961) The theory of optimum currency areas, American Economic Review, 51, 50917. Perron, P. (1997) Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables, Journal of Econometrics, 80, 35585. Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75, 33546. Zivot, E. and D. W. K. Andrews (1992) Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 25170. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/2758 |