"Forecasting stochastic Volatility using the Kalman filter: an application to Canadian Interest Rates and Price-Earnings Ratio"

Théoret, Raymond and Racicot, François-Éric (2010): "Forecasting stochastic Volatility using the Kalman filter: an application to Canadian Interest Rates and Price-Earnings Ratio". Published in: Aestimatio. The IEB International Journal of Finance No. 1 (December 2010): pp. 1-20.

Abstract

In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986,1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional volatility estimated with the GARCH model. We apply our models to Canadian short-term interest rates. When comparing the profile of the interest rate stochastic volatility to the conditional one, we find that the omission of a constant term in the stochastic volatility model might have a perverse effect leading to a scaling problem, a problem often overlooked in the literature. Stochastic volatility seems to be a better forecasting tool than GARCH(1,1) since it is less conditioned by autoregressive past information. Second, we filter the S&P500 price-earnings(P/E) ratio in order to forecast its value. To make this forecast, we postulate a rational expectations process but our method may accommodate other data generating processes. We find that our forecast is close to a GARCH(1,1) profile.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Stochastic volatility, Kalman filter, P/E ratio forecast, Interest rate forecast
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G31 - Capital Budgeting ; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies ; Capacity; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C19 - Other; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C49 - Other

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