A produção e industrialização do café no Brasil e a economia nacional: simulações sob um modelo inter-regional de insumo-produto

Sakon, Fernando Malateux and Imori, Denise and Cunha, Fernanda Sartori Camargo da and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins and Bliska, Flávia Maria de Mello (2012): A produção e industrialização do café no Brasil e a economia nacional: simulações sob um modelo inter-regional de insumo-produto.

Abstract

This paper intends to analyze the behavior and importance of the sectors of agricultural production and industrialization of coffee for each of the main Brazilian producers (Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Sao Paulo, Paraná, Bahia and Rondônia) in relation to their economies and in relation to other sectors of the national economy. Building an inter-regional input-output system for the year 2002, with seven regions and 44 sectors per region in order to obtain 308 sectors in total, we studied the impact of changes in the volume of production of the sectors objective of the study (Arabica Coffee, Robusta Coffee and Coffee Industry). We developed a series of simulations involving the production in certain regions. The simulations were chosen based on the alternative scenarios to those currently practiced in Brazil, enabling observe the impact that changes in regional production can generate about Production Multipliers (Type I and II), Value Added Multipliers (Type I and II) and Employment Multipliers (Type I and II).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The production and industrialization in Brazil and the national economy: simulations using an inter-regional input-output model
• Language: Portuguese
• Keywords: Coffee production; Inter-regional model; Input-Output
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D57 - Input-Output Tables and Analysis; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C67 - Input-Output Models; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q10 - General

References

GUILHOTO, J.J.M. Análise de Insumo-Produto: Teoria, Fundamentos e Aplicações. Livro em Elaboração. Departamento de Economia. FEA-USP, 2007.

GUILHOTO, J. J. M.; SESSO FILHO, Umberto Antonio. Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a Partir de Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais. Revista de Economia Aplicada, São Paulo, SP, v. 9, n. 2, 2005.

IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. IBGE Atualiza cálculo do produto Interno Bruto e retrata com detalhes a economia do País.

LEONTIEF, W. (1966). Input-Output Economics. New York: Oxford University Press.

MILLER, R.E., e BLAIR, P.D... Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1985.