Border zone mass transit demand in Brownsville and Laredo

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Walke, Adam G. (2012): Border zone mass transit demand in Brownsville and Laredo. Published in: Journal of the Transportation Research Forum , Vol. 51, No. 2 : pp. 43-59.

Abstract

This study examines whether economic conditions in Mexico influence public transportation ridership levels in the border cities of Brownsville and Laredo, Texas. Besides the standard variables generally utilized to model bus ridership, additional indicators included in the empirical analysis are northbound pedestrian traffic and the real exchange rate index. Seemingly unrelated regression parameter estimates suggest that the volume of pedestrian border crossings in both cities is positively related to changes in ridership. The real exchange rate index in Laredo is negatively related to fluctuations in ridership, implying that peso appreciation increases transit utilization in this border city.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Municipal Transit Demand, Border Economics, Applied Econometrics
• Subjects: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion ; Travel Time ; Safety and Accidents ; Transportation Noise

References

Blackley, P.R. “Spatial Mismatch in Urban Labor Markets: Evidence from Large U.S. Metropolitan Areas.” Social Science Quarterly 71 (1), (1990): 39-52.

BEA. “Regional Economic Information System.” Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis, August 1, 2011.

BLS. “Local Area Unemployment Statistics.” Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/lau, May 18, 2011.

Bresson, G., J. Dargay, J.-L. Madre, and A. Pirotte. “Economic and Structural Determinants of the Demand for Public Transport: An Analysis on a Panel of French Urban Areas using Shrinkage Estimators.” Transportation Research Part A 38 (4), (2004): 269–285.

BTS. “North American Border Crossing/Entry Data.” Bureau of Transportation Statistics. http://www.bts.gov/programs/international/transborder/TBDR_BC/TBDR_BC_Index.html, August 8, 2011.

Cañas, J., T.M. Fullerton, and W.D. Smith. “Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo.” Growth and Change 38 (1), (2007): 23-38.

Cervero, R. “Transit Pricing Research: A Review and Synthesis.” Transportation 17 (2), (1990): 117-139.

Charney, A.H. and V.K. Pavlakovich-Kochi. “The Economic Impacts of Mexican Visitors to Arizona: 2001.” Working Paper, Economic and Business Research Program, University of Arizona, 2002.

Chiang, W.C., R.A. Russell, and T.L. Urban. “Forecasting Ridership for a Metropolitan Transit Authority.” Transportation Research Part A 45 (7), (2011): 696-705.

Coronado, R.A. and K.R. Phillips. “Exported Retail Sales along the Texas-Mexico Border.” Journal of Borderlands Studies 22 (1), (2007): 19-37.

Dallas Morning News. Texas Almanac. Dallas Morning News, Dallas, TX, 1984-86 and 2008-09 (multiple volumes).

Dargay, J.M. and M. Hanly. “The Demand for Local Bus Services in England.” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 36 (1), (2002): 73-91.

Dascher, K. and A. Haupt. “The Political Economy of Regional Integration Projects at Borders where Poor and Rich Meet: The Role of Cross-Border Shopping and Community Sorting.” Journal of Urban Economics 69 (1), (2011): 148-164.

Davidson, R. and J.G. MacKinnon. “Testing for Consistency Using Artificial Regressions.” Econometric Theory 5 (3), (1989): 363-384.

De Leon, M., T.M. Fullerton, and B.W. Kelley. “Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic.” International Journal of Transport Economics 36 (2), (2009): 55-80.

de Rus, G. “Public Transport Demand Elasticities in Spain.” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 24 (2), (1990): 189-201.

EIA. “Retail Motor Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices.” Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.gov/emeu/aer, May 16, 2011.

FRB. “Consumer Price Index – All Urban Consumers.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/, May 17, 2011.

Fernandez, R.B. “A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series.” Review of Economics and Statistics 63 (3), (1981): 471-476.

Frankena, M.W. “The Demand for Urban Bus Transit in Canada.” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 12 (3), (1978): 280-303.

Friedman, M. “The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 57 (300), (1962): 729-757.

Fullerton, T.M. “Currency Movements and International Border Crossings.” International Journal of Public Administration 23 (5-8), (2000): 1113-1123.

Ghaddar, S. and C.J. Brown. “The Economic Impact of Mexican Visitors along the U.S.-Mexico Border: A Research Synthesis.” Working Paper, Center for Border Economic Studies, University of Texas – Pan American, 2005.

Gkritza, K., M.G. Karlaftis and F.L. Mannering. “Estimating Multimodal Transit Ridership with a Varying Fare Structure.” Transportation Research Part A 45 (2), (2011): 148-160.

Giermanski, J.R. “NAFTA and the South Texas Border: Is the Border Fit to Compete?” Journal of the Southwest 39 (2), (1997): 287-302.

Heisz, A. and G. Schellenberg. “Public Transit Use among Immigrants.” Canadian Journal of Urban Research 13 (1), (2004): 170-191.

Herzog, L.A. “The Transfrontier Organization of Space along the U.S.-Mexico Border.” Geoforum 22 (3), (1991): 255-269.

Holmgren, J. “Meta-Analysis of Public Transport Demand.” Transportation Research Part A 41 (10), (2007): 1021–1035.

Hughes, M.A. “Employment Decentralization and Accessibility.” Journal of the American Planning Association 57 (3), (1991): 288-298.

Janes, J. “New Buses Complete System’s Makeover.” The Monitor (McAllen, TX), 20 June, 2011.

Kain, J.F. and Z. Liu. “Secrets of Success: Assessing the Large Increases in Transit Ridership Achieved by Houston and San Diego Transit Providers.” Transportation Research Part A 33 (7-8), (1999): 601-624.

Lane, B.W. “The Relationship between Recent Gasoline Price Fluctuations and Transit Ridership in Major U.S. Cities.” Journal of Transport Geography 18 (2), (2010): 214–225.

Lovell, M.C. “A Simple Proof of the FWL Theorem.” Journal of Economic Education 39 (1), (2008): 88-91.

Lütkepohl, H. and M. Krätzig. Applied Time Series Econometrics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004.

Muñoz, R.A., M.J. Pisani and T.M. Fullerton, Jr. “Exchange Rate Premia and Discounts for Retail Purchases using Mexican Pesos in El Paso, Texas.” Social Science Journal 48 (4), (2011): 612–620.

Nizlek, M.C. and L. Duckstein. “A System Model for Predicting the Effect of Energy Resources on Urban Modal Split.” Transportation Research 8 (4-5), (1974): 329 – 334.

NTD. “Individual Profiles for all Transit Agencies in Urbanized Areas over and under 200,000 Population.” National Transit Database. http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/data, August 15, 2011.

Patrick, J.M. and W. Renforth. “The Effects of the Peso Devaluation on Cross-Border Retailing.” Journal of Borderlands Studies 11 (1), (1996): 25-41.

Paulley, N., R. Balcombe, R. Mackett, H. Titheridge, J. Preston, M. Wardman, J. Shires, and P. White. “The Demand for Public Transport: The Effects of Fares, Quality of Service, Income and Car Ownership.” Transport Policy 13 (4), (2006): 295–306. Peng, Z.R., K.J. Dueker, J. Strathman, and J. Hopper. “A Simultaneous Route-Level Transit Patronage Model: Demand, Supply, and Inter-Route Relationship.” Transportation 24 (2), (1997): 159-181.

Pham, L.H. and J. Linsalata. Fare Elasticity and its Application to Forecasting Transit Demand. American Public Transit Association, Washington, DC, 1991.

Pindyck, R.S. and D.L. Rubinfeld. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th Edition. Irwin McGraw-Hill, Boston, MA, 1998.

Romilly, P. “Subsidy and Local Bus Service Deregulation in Britain: A Re-Evaluation.” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 35 (2), (2001): 161-193.

Small, K.A. “Economics and Urban Transportation Policy in the United States.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 27 (6), (1997): 671-691.

Taylor, B.D., D. Miller, I. Hiroyuki, and C. Fink. “Nature and/or Nurture? Analyzing the Determinants of Transit Ridership across U.S. Urbanized Areas.” Transportation Research Part A 43 (1), (2009): 60–77.

TDHPT. Plans for Public Transportation in Texas. Texas Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Austin, TX, 1979.

TDT. DISCOS: District and County Statistical Data. Texas Department of Transportation, Austin, TX, 1987-95 (multiple volumes).

TDT. Texas Transit Statistics. Texas Department of Transportation, Austin, TX, 1983-2009 (multiple volumes).

TDT. “Vehicle Registration Statistics.” Texas Department of Transportation. http://www.txdot.gov/txdot_library/publications/stats.htm, May 17, 2011.

TEC. Texas Labor Market Review. Texas Employment Commission, Austin, TX, 1983-89 (multiple volumes).

Wang, H.K., and D. Skinner. “The Impact of Fare and Gasoline Price Changes on Monthly Transit Ridership: Empirical Evidence from Seven US Transit Authorities.” Transportation Research Part B 18 (1), (1984): 29-41.

U.S. Census Bureau. “2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.” U.S. Census Bureau. http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/, September 5, 2011.

UTEP. “Border Region Modeling Project Data.” University of Texas at El Paso. http://academics.utep.edu/border/. Accessed May 16, 2011.

Yoskowitz, D. W., and M.J. Pisani. “Risk and Reward: Currency Substitution and Acceptance of the Mexican Peso by Firms in the United States Southern Frontier.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 47 (3), (2007): 422–434.

Zellner, A. “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 57 (298), (1962): 348-368.