Verico, Kiki (2013): The Economic Integration of ASEAN+3.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_43801.pdf Download (802kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The ASEAN wide economic cooperation under the ‘ASEAN umbrella principle’ is fitting the ASEAN’s ‘open and soft regionalism’ character. It helps ASEAN to achieve a comprehensive trade and investment integration in the short to medium-run and financial integration in the long-run. In Southeast Asia, this wide-regionalism has been reflected in the ASEAN Plus framework. Among one of them is the ASEAN+3, which covers ten ASEAN member states and three East Asian countries (China, Japan and South Korea). This paper attempts to analyze the stability and sustainability of economic integration of the ASEAN+3. It adopts the ‘inflation rate similarity among observed countries’ as a proxy variable of regional economic integration and implements a time-series analysis of Stationarity Test to observe whether inflation rate similarity is the most appropriate variable for assessing the both short and long-run economic integration of the ASEAN+3. As for the short-run economic integration, this paper implements the ECM (Error Correction Mechanism) to identify whether pair inflation rate similarity among observed countries is stable and whether it is has dynamic or static relations. As for long-run economic integration, this paper implements Cointegration Test and its result has been utilized as the benchmark to select the observed countries for a further relation analysis between inflation and exchange rate. This relation is a proxy to describe long-run trade relations of the observed countries either they do compete or complement among each other.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The Economic Integration of ASEAN+3 |
English Title: | The Economic Integration of ASEAN+3 |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | economic integration; inflation rate similarity; regional economic enlargement; exchange rate and trade relation; ASEAN+3 |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O24 - Trade Policy ; Factor Movement Policy ; Foreign Exchange Policy R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes |
Item ID: | 43801 |
Depositing User: | Kiki Verico |
Date Deposited: | 16 Jan 2013 05:56 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 22:53 |
References: | Antonuchi, D and Manzocchi, S., 2005. Does Turkey have a Special Trade Relation with EU, Departement of Economics University of Perugia. Aoki, T.,1992. Japanese FDI and the Forming of Networks in the Asia Pacific Region: Experience in the Asia Pacific Region: Experience in Malaysia and Its Implications. In S. Tokunaga,ed. Japan’s Foreign Investment and Asian Economic Interdependence: Production, Trade and Financial Systems, 5-47: Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press. Balassa, B., 1961. The Theory of Economic Integration. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin. Baldwin, R.E., 2006. Managing the Noodle Bowl: The Fragility of East Asian Regionalism. CEPR Discussion Paper No.5561, London. Blanchard, O., 2006. Macroeconomics (4th ed.). New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall. Dunning, J.H.,1988. Explaining International Production. Unwin Hyman Ltd. London. Fleming,J.M.,1971. On Exchange Rate Unification.The Economic Journal,81(323),467-488, September. Frankel, J.,1997. Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System. Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C. Friedman, M.,1963. A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960. Princeton University Press. Gujarati, D.,2003. Basic Econometrics (4th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company. Huhne, C.,1990. Real World Economics. England: Penguin Group. Helpman, E., and Paul Krugman.,1985. Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and the International Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Kenen, P.B.,1969. The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View. In Mundell and Swoboda, ed. Monetary Problems of the International Economy, University of Chicago Press. Kimura, F. and Obashi, A., 2009. International Production Networks: Comparison between China and ASEAN. ERIA Discussion Paper Series, January. Lawrence, R.,1999.Regionalism, Multilateralism, and Deeper Integration: Changing Paradigms for Developing Countries. In M. Mendoza, P. Low and B. Kotschwar (eds.), Trade Rules in the Making: Challenges in Regional and Multilateral Negotiations.Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Mundell,R.A.,1961. A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. American Economic Review, September. Nachrowi, DN and Usman, H.,2006. Ekonometrika.LP FEUI. Peng, D., 2002. Invisible Linkages: A Regional Perspective of East Asian Political Economy. 46, 423-447, Salvatore, D.,2004. International Economics, 8th ed. John Wiley and Sons, USA. Singh, TSDA.,2003.AFTA: Challenges and Opportunities. unpublished lecture notes. Asia-Europe Institute. Scitovsky and Ingram.,2004.Financial Integration. In Visser, H., A Guide to International Monetary Economics. EE, 3rd Edition, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited Stutchbury, M.,1994. Taste Test for APEC as Miami Serves Spaghetti. Australian Financial Review, 27. Urata, S., 1993. Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and Its Effect on Foreign Trade in Asia. In, T. Ho and A.O. Krueger,ed. Trade and Protection. 273-304,Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Urata, S.,2007.Competitive Regionalism in East Asia: An Economic Analysis. GIARI Working Paper, Waseda University Verico, Kiki.,2008. The Impact of ASEAN’s Intra-trade to FDI Inflows from Non-Member States: The Cases of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, 1987-2006. Economics and Finance Indonesia, 55 (3), 253-280, Jakarta: LPEM. Verico, Kiki.,2009. FTA China-ASEAN and RI’s Paradox Policy”, The Jakarta Post, 28 December. Verico, Kiki., 2010a. The AFTA and BFTA Effects on Trade-Investment Relations in Southeast Asia: Case Study of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, 1988-2008. Unpublished Paper. Verico, Kiki.,2010b. The Effect of Sub-Regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia’s Trade Investment Relations: Case of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand (ITRO), 1988-2008. Unpublished Paper. Verico, Kiki.,2011.Short-Run and Long-Run Analysis of the ASEAN+3’s Economic Integration Equilibrium. The 12th Asia Pacific Rim Universities – Doctoral Students Conference (APRU-DSC).Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, 4-7 July 2011. Viner, J.,1950.The Custom Union Issue. New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Vogelvang, Ben.,2005.Econometric:Theory and Applications with E-Views. (1st ed.). UK: Pearson Education Limited. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/43801 |