Kihaule, Arnold Mathias (2012): The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_46151.pdf Download (172kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper examines the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies adopted during the period in which Tanzania experienced economic shocks. The econometric models are used to determine the impact of exogenous and economic policy shocks on gdp growth, public spending and the fiscal balance. The results revealed that policy shocks resulted in structural changes in output growth and public spending instability in Tanzania. Specifically, economic policy shocks led to changes in macroeconomic conditions, which adversely affected the fiscal position after 1986. The results suggest that fiscal adjustment policies should not be undertaken when a number of economic policy changes are envisaged in an economy.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania |
English Title: | The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | fiscal adjustment policies, fiscal deficit, public spending, economic policy shock, Tanzania, |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy |
Item ID: | 46151 |
Depositing User: | DR Arnold Mathias Kihaule |
Date Deposited: | 12 Apr 2013 20:20 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 00:58 |
References: | Agénor, P. and P. Montiel, (1996), “Development macroeconomics”, Princeton University press, Princeton Jersey. Aiko, R. (2003), “Fiscal adjustment in IMF supported adjustment programme: the Tanzanian experience”, African journal of finance and management, vol. 11, pp. 84-103. Alesina, A. and S. Ardagna, (1995), “Fiscal adjustment in OECD countries”, Economic policy, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 207-248. Alesina, A. and S. Ardagna, (1998), “Tale of fiscal adjustment”, Economic policy, pp. 488-545. Alesina, A. and R. Perotti, (1995), “Fiscal expansion and adjustment in OECD countries”,economic policy, vol. 21, pp. 205 - 48. Alesina, A. and R. Perotti, (1997), “Fiscal adjustment in OECD countries: composition and macroeconomic effects”, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 210-248. Ariyo, A. (1996), “Quality of macroeconomic data on Africa: Nigeria as a case study”, AER special paper, no. 22. Ayoki, M., M.Obwona, and M. Ogwapus, (2005), “Tax reforms and domestic revenue mobilisation in Uganda”, Global Development Network and Institute of Policy Research and Analysis, Uganda (Second Draft). Bank of Tanzania, (1982), “Economic and operations report”, Dar es salaam. Bank of Tanzania, (1986), “Economic and operations report”, Dar es Salaam. Bank of Tanzania, (1990), “Economic and operations report”, Dar es Salaam. Bank of Tanzania, (1997), “Economic and operations report”, Dar es Salaam. Bank of Tanzania, (2002), “Economic and operations report”, Dar es Salaam. Búlir, A. and S. Moon, (2003), “Do IMF supported programme make fiscal adjustment more sustainable”, IMF Working Papers, no. 38. Búlir, A. and S. Moon, (2004), “Do IMF supported Programme make fiscal adjustment more sustainable”, Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46 no. 3 pp 373-399. Calza, A., C. Gartner, and Sousa, J. (2001), “Modelling demand for private sector in Europe”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, no. 55. Charemza, W. and F. Deadman, (1997), “New direction in econometric practices”, Edward Elgars, Cheltenham, Chevillon, B. (2004), “A comparison of multi-step gdp forecast for South Africa”, Discussion paper series, Department of economics, University of Oxford, no. 212. Debs, A. (2001), “Testing for a structural break in volatility of real gdp growth in Canada”, Bank of Canada Working Paper, no. 2001-9. Fischer, S. and R. Sahay, (2000), “The transition economies after ten years”, IMF Working Paper, no. 0030. Gamber, E. and L. Fredrick, (2005), “The yield slope and monetary policy innovations”, Institute for Advanced Studies Economic Series, no. 171. Gavin, M. and R. Perotti, (1997), “Fiscal policy in Latin America”, NBER: Macroeconomic Annual, pp. 11- 71. Giavazzi, F. and M. Pagano, (1990a), “Can fiscal contraction be expansionary: Tale of two small European Countries”, CEPR. Giavazzi, F. and M. Pagano, (1990b), “Can severe fiscal adjustment be expansionary”, NBER: Macroeconomic Annual. Giavazzi, F. and M. Pagano, (1996), “Non Keynesian effects of fiscal policy changes: international evidence and Swedish experience”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, vol. 3, pp. 67 - 103. Gibbon, P. and P. Raikes, (1996), “Structural adjustment in Africa: A survey of experience -Tanzania”, in Limit of Adjustment in Africa, P. Engberg-Pedersen, P. Gibbon, P. Raikes and L Udholt (eds.),James Currey, Oxford, pp. 215-301. Green, R. H., D.G. Rwegasira, and B. Van Arkadie, (1982), “Economic shocks and national policy making: Tanzania in 1970s”, The institute of social studies, the Hague. Greene, W. H. (2003), “Econometric analysis”, fifth edition (edn), Pearson Education Inc, New Jersey. Guardian (2004), “Factories dormant since privatisation”, The Guardian, 31.07.2004. Hansen, B. (1991), A Comparison of test for parameter instability: An Examination of asymptotically local power. Retrieved 08.03.2004, from http//www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen. Hansen, B. (2001), “New econometrics of structural change: dating breaks in US labour productivity”, Journal of Economic Perspective, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 117 - 128. Harvey, A.C., (1981), “The econometric analysis of time series”, Philip Allen Publishers Limited, Oxford. Hill, C.R., W.E. Griffiths, and G.G. Judge, (2001), “Undergraduate econometrics”, John Wiley and Sons Inc., New Jersey. IMF, (1980), “Government finance statistics yearbook”, International Monetary Fund. IMF, (1990), “Government finance statistics yearbook”, International Monetary Fund. IMF, (1991), “International financial statistics”, International Monetary Fund, Washington. IMF, (1992), “International financial statistics”, International Monetary Fund, Washington. IMF, (1999), Enhanced structural adjustment facility: paper for 1998/99 - 2000/01. Retrieved 08.03.2004, from http://www. imf.org/external/np/pfp/1999/Tanzania/indexhtm. IMF, (2000), “International financial statistics”, International Monetary Fund, Washington. Kapetanios, G. and E. Tzavalis, (2004), “The Impact of large structural shock on economic relationships: evidence from oil price shocks”, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Queens Mary University of London, no. 524. Kose, A. C. Otrok, and C. Whiteman, (1999), “Economic shocks and economic dynamics: in case of Africa”, a paper presented at Indiana Econometric Society in New York, University of Iowa. Kose, A. M., S.E. Prasad, and M. E. Terrones, (2003), “Financial integration and macroeconomic stability”, IMF Working Papers, no. 03/27. Kose, A. M. and R. Riezman, (1999), “Trade shock and macroeconomic fluctuation in Africa”, CEsifo Working paper, vol. Working Paper. Kouassy, O. and B. Bohoun, (1994), “Fiscal adjustment and growth in ivory coast”, World Development, vol. 22, no. 8, pp. 1119- 1128. Kweka, J. P. and O. Morrissey, (2000), “Government spending and economic growth in Tanzania, 1965 - 1996”, Centre for Research in Economic Development and International Trade, University of Nottingham, Research Paper, no. 00/6. Lipumba, N. (1988), “Policy reform for economic development”, in S. K. Commins (ed.), Africa”s development challenges and the World Bank. hard questions and costly choices, Cynne Rienner Publishers, Colorado. Lipumba, N. (1992), “The nature and prospects of current economic reforms in Tanzania”, in The Nature and Prospects of Current Economic Reforms in Tanzania, M. Bagachwa, A. Mbele and B.Van Arkadie (eds.), Economic Research Bureau and Department of Economics, Dar Es Salaam, pp. 43-56. Lipumba, N. and B. Ndulu, (1989), “Long-term trends in exports”, Tanzania economic trends, vol.2, no. 1, pp. 11-23. Maddala, G. and I. M. Kim, (1998), “Unit root cointegration and structural change”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Maliyamkono, T. and M. Bagachwa, (1990), “The second economy in Tanzania”, James Currey, London. Mbele, A. (2001), “The HIPC Relief: too late, too little ? perspective from the new qualifier, Tanzania”, UNU/WIDER Conference on Debt Relief, Helsinki, 17-18, August. McConnell, M. and G. P. Quiros, (1997), “Output fluctuation in United State: What has changed since early 1980s”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, no. 9735. McConnel, M. and G.P. Quiros, (2000), “Output fluctuation: What has changed since early 1980s”, American Economic Review, vol. 90, pp. 1464-1476. McDermott, P. and R. Wescott, (1996), “An empirical analysis of fiscal adjustment policies”, IMF staff paper, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 725 - 753. Mjema, G. (2000), “Debt relief and poverty in Tanzania: Prospect and challenges”, Paper Presented at the Ist IFMASA worksop on poverty alleviation and the finance management system in Tanzania, November 29. Moshi, H. P. (1998), “Fiscal and monetary burden of Tanzania”s corporate bodies: The case of public enterprises”, AERC Research Papers, no. 75. Ndulu, B. (1987), “Stabilisation and adjustment policies and programmes”, World institute for development economics research. Osoro, N. (1994), Taxation in Tanzania: Motivations, directions and future prospects, Dar es Salaam University Press, Dar es Salaam. Osoro, N. (1997), “Public spending, taxation and deficit”, AERC Research Paper, no. 62. Pirtillä, J. (2001), “Fiscal policy and structural reform in transition economies: An empirical analysis”, Economics of Transitions, vol. 9, pp. 29-52. Purfield, C. (2003), “Fiscal adjustment in transition countries: Evidence from 1990s”, IMF working paper, no. 03/36. Quantitative Micro Software, (2004), EViews User”s Guide, Microsoft Corporation, Irvine. Simon, J. (2001), “The decline in Australian output volatility”, Research discussion paper, Economic Research, Reserve Bank of Australia. Singh, A. (1986), “Tanzania and the IMF: The analysis of alternative adjustment programmes”, Development and Change, vol. 17, pp. 425-454. Subramanian, A. (1997), “The Egyptian stabilization experience: An analytical retrospective”, IMF working paper, p. 1997. Tanzi, V. (1989), “The Impact of macroeconomic policies on the level of taxation and fiscal balance in developing countries”, IMF staff papers, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 633-656. Ter-Minassian, T. and G. Schwartz, (1997), “The role of fiscal policy in sustainable stabilization: Evidence from Latin America”, IMF Working Paper, no. 97/94. Treasury, H. (2002), UK Government. Retrieved 25.03.2004, from http//hmtreasury. gov.uk/media/BE324/,. United Republic of Tanzania (1997), “Economic survey”, Government Printer, Dar es Salaam. United Republic of Tanzania (1999), “Economic survey”, Government Printer, Dar es Salaam. United Republic of Tanzania (2000a), “Economic survey”, Dar es Salaam. Wangwe, S. (1992), “Nature and extend of parastaral restructutring:Case of industrial parastatals in Tanzania”, in The nature and prospects of current economic reforms in Tanzania, M.S.D.Bagachwa, A.V.Y. Mbele and B. Van Arkadie (eds.),Economic Research Bureau, Dar es Salaam. Wangwe, S., H. Semboja, and K. Tibandibage, (eds.) (1998), “Transitional economic policy and policy options”, Mkuki na Nyota publishers, Dar es Salaam. Watson, M. (1994), “Business cycle duration and post-war stabilisation of the US Economy”, American Economic Review, pp. 24-46. World Bank (1996), “Tanzania: The challenge of reform, growth and income and welfare”, report No. TZ 14982, The World Bank, Washington. World Bank (2001), “Country Study: Tanzania at the turn of the century”, World Bank, Washington. World Bank (2003), “World tables for economic Data”, EconData. Ziky, M. and B. Mansouri, (2003), “The role of openness in transmitting external shocks affecting the Moroccan economy: Analytical and empirical approaches”, ERF Conference Paper. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/46151 |