Using input-output to measure the GDP and to estimate monthly growth rates of productive complexes: the case of the Brazilian agribusiness

Furtuoso, Maria Cristina Ortiz and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (2000): Using input-output to measure the GDP and to estimate monthly growth rates of productive complexes: the case of the Brazilian agribusiness.

Abstract

Through the use of input-output analysis tools, like backward and forward linkages (Hirschman-Rasmussen and Pure), it was possible to delineate which are the sectors that belong to the Brazilian Agribusiness. From the definition of the sectors and using the Brazilian input-output tables it was possible to measure the GDP of Brazilian Agribusiness which were estimated to be around 27% of the Brazilian GDP in 1999. The GDP of the Agribusiness was also estimated for two major complexes: a) Vegetal Products and b) Animal Products. Each of the Agribusiness complexes was divided into four components: a) inputs to agriculture; b) agriculture; c) agriculture based industry; and d) final distribution. To estimate the monthly growth rates of the Agribusiness it was used on one hand the inputoutput tables to estimate the weight of each sector in the complex and on the other hand it was used a series of economic indexes (price and quantity) available for the Brazilian economy. It is important to stress that the measure of the monthly growth rates of the Agribusiness GDP was done taking into consideration the income side of agriculture, i.e., we have tried to make the growth rates sensible to real price as well as real quantity changes, given that the quarterly estimates of the Brazilian Government Statistical Institute (IBGE) are given taken into consideration only growth rates into agricultural production, as so we do believe that the monthly growth rates that we have obtained are much more representative of what happen in the Brazilian Agriculture and Agribusiness than the ones released by IBGE.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Brazilian agribusiness, input-output, GDP
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C67 - Input-Output Models; D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D57 - Input-Output Tables and Analysis; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models

References

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FURTUOSO, M.C.O. O Produto Interno Bruto do Complexo Agroindustrial Brasileiro. Tese de doutorado. Piracicaba, 1998. 278 p. – Universidade de São Paulo/ESALQ/USP.

GUILHOTO, J. J. M.; FURTUOSO, M. C.O. & BARROS, G. S. D. C. O Agronegócio na Economia Brasileira, 1994-1999. Confederação Nacional da Agricultura. Relatório Abril-2000.