EPSIM - An integrated sequential interindustry model for energy planning: evaluating economic, eletrical, environmental and health dimensions of new power plants

Avelino, Andre F. T. and Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (2011): EPSIM - An integrated sequential interindustry model for energy planning: evaluating economic, eletrical, environmental and health dimensions of new power plants.

Abstract

Energy is the input in which modern society depends the most for life standard maintenance besides economic and social activities, however, it is also one of the major sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, especially the electric sector, due to a world energy matrix concentrated on oil and coal resources. Hereby, impact analysis is essential for policy making focused on sustainable energy systems, once it provides ex ante evaluations for the diverse effects of new projects, being especially important in relation to large infra-structure investments as power plants. In the Brazilian case, although the current electrical matrix is primarily renewable and has low GHG intensity, the required expansion of generation capacity leads to rediscuss power plants’ alternatives and their externalities. Due to the transient and heterogeneous demand of these projects, economic, environmental, energy and social impacts must be assessed dynamically and spatially. This study proposes a social-environmental economic model, based on Regional Sequential Interindustry Model (SIM) integrated with geoprocessing data, in order to identify economic, pollution and public health impacts in state and county levels for energy planning analysis. Integrating I-O framework with electrical and dispersion models, dose-response functions and GIS data, this model aims to expand policy makers’ scope of analysis and provide an auxiliary tool to assess energy planning scenarios in Brazil. Moreover, a case study for wind power plants in Brazil is performed to illustrate its usage.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Energy planning, input-output, sequential interindustry model, energy economics
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q40 - General; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models

References

ANÁLISE. Análise Energia: Anuário 2010. São Paulo: Ibep, 2010.

ANEEL. Atlas de Energia Elétrica. Second Edition. Brasília: ANEEL, 2005.

ANEEL. BIG – Banco de Informação de Geração. 2010. Available in: <http://www.aneel. gov.br/15.htm>. Access in May 28, 2010.

ECEN. Balanço de Carbono, Energia Equivalente e Final: Brasil 1970-2006. Software. Brasília: MCT, 2010.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION. ExternE – Externalities of Energy: Methodology 2005 Update. Luxemburg: European Communities, 2005.

DATASUS. Banco de Dados do Sistema Único de Saúde. 2010. Available in: <http://www.datasus.gov.br/>. Access in Aug. 10, 2010.

GOUVEIA, N. et al. Hospitalizações por causas respiratórias e cardiovasculares associadas à contaminação atmosférica no Município de São Paulo, Brasil. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v.22, n.12, pp.2669-2677, 2006.

GUILHOTO, J.; SESSO FILHO, U. Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a partir de Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais. Economia Aplicada, Ribeirão Preto, v.9, n.1, April-June, 2005a.

GUILHOTO, J.; SESSO FILHO, U. Estrutura Produtiva da Amazônia - Uma Análise de Insumo-Produto. Belém: Banco da Amazônia, 2005b.

IBGE. Produto Interno Bruto dos Municípios. 2010. Available in: <http://www.ibge. gov.br/>. Access in Aug. 10, 2010. LABANDEIRA, X.; LABEAGA, J. M. Estimation and Control of Spanish Energy-related CO2 Emissions: an Input–Output Approach. Energy Policy, v.30, pp.597-611, 2002.

MCT. Inventário Brasileiro das Emissões e Remoções Antrópicas de Gases de Efeito Estufa: Relatório Preliminar. Second Edition. Brasília: MCT, 2009.

MILLER, R.; BLAIR, P. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2009. MME. Balanço Energético Nacional 2010 – Ano Base 2009. Rio de Janeiro: EPE, 2010.

ONS. 2010. Operador Nacional do Sistema – Informações e Histórico de Operação. Available in: <http://www.ons.org.br>. Access in Apr. 16, 2010.

POPE, C. Invited Commentary: Particulate Matter-Mortality Exposure-Response Relations and Threshold. American Journal of Epidemiology, v.152, n.5, pp.407-412, 2000.

ROMANOFF, E.; LEVINE, S. Impact Dynamics of Large Construction Projects: Simulations by the Sequential Interindustry Model. Discussion Paper No. 80-2, Regional Science Research Center, 1980.

ROMANOFF, E.; LEVINE, S. Antecipatory and Responsive Sequential Interindustry Models. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, v.11, n.3, 1981.

ROMANOFF, E.; LEVINE, S. Capacity Limitations, Inventory, and Time-Phased Production in the Sequential Interindustry Model. Papers of the Regional Science Association, v. 59, pp. 73-91, 1986.

SALBY, M. Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics. San Diego: Academic Press, 1996.

SWERA. CEPEL - Brazil Wind Data (10km). Available in: <http://swera.unep.net/>. Access in: Apr. 16, 2010.

TOLMASQUIM, M. (Org.). Geração de Energia Elétrica no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Interciência, 2005.

VENTOS DO SUL. 2007. Parques Eólicos de Osório. Available in: <http://www.ventosdo sulenergia.com.br/highres.php>. Access in: 14 nov. 2008.

WINROCK INTERNATIONAL. Kit de Ferramentas para o Desenvolvimento de Projetos de Energia Eólica. Salvador: Winrock International Brasil, 2004.