国家债务适度规模研究 —基于因子增强阈值模型

guo, Min and zhao, jizhi and huang, yixuan (2014): 国家债务适度规模研究 —基于因子增强阈值模型.

Abstract

本文基于国家债务适度规模假说，采用时间序列数据和因子增强阈值模型对世界有代表性国家债务适度规模的进行了测定。研究结果显示：在样本期间内，第一，在5%的显著性水平下，除西班牙外，大部分有代表性国家都不能拒绝不存在阈值效应的零假设，在10%的显著性水平下，除西班牙、希腊、印度外，其它国家不能拒绝不存在阈值效应的零假设；第二，债务规模同经济增长并不存在简单线性关系，部分验证了前文关于国家债务适度规模假说；第三，从阈值水平来看，未有阈值效应的国家中，很多都超过了60%的警戒线，如日本、美国、加拿大等，但我们的检验结果表明，这些国家债务规模并没阈值效应，即说明目前的债务水平的安全的；第四，对于中国来说，我们的结论更加验证了中国总体债务规模安全、可控，并不存在发生总体债务危机的风险；第五，同Mendoza et al.（2008）有关最优主权债务负担率区间为48%～50%的研究结论相比，我们的结论有着很大的差异，其原因在于，我们的研究充分考虑的国家的差异性，即考虑了不同国家的自身特点，同时，也将全球性因素作为考虑的因素之一。

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: a Study of Moderate Scale of Public Debt - Based on Factor-Augmented Threshold Model
• Language: Chinese
• Keywords: 国家债务 适度规模 因子增强阀值模型
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt

References

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