The Impact of Climatic Change on Agricultural Production: Is it different for Africa?

Barrios, Salvador and Ouattara, Bazoumanna and Strobl, Eric (2004): The Impact of Climatic Change on Agricultural Production: Is it different for Africa?

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climatic change on the level of total agricultural production of Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) and non-Sub-Sahara Africa (NSSA) developing countries. In doing so it uses a new cross-country panel climatic dataset in an agricultural production framework. The results show that climate, measured as changes in country-wide rainfall and temperature, has been a major determinant of agricultural production in SSA. In contrast, NSSA countries appear not to be affected by climate in the same manner. Simulations using the estimates suggest that the detrimental changes in climate since the 1960s can account for a substantial portion of the gap in agricultural production between SSA and the rest of the developing world.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Climate change, Africa, Agriculture
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products

References

Aboagye, A. Q. and Gunajl, K. (2000). “An analysis of short-run response of export and domestic agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa”, Agricultural Economics, 23, pp. 41-53. Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L. and E. Strobl (2003). “Dry Times in Africa”, CREDIT Working Paper, 03/07. Benson, C. and E. Clay (1998). The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan Economies. World Bank Technical Paper No. 401, World Bank, Washington, DC. Binswanger, H. and Townshend, R. (2000). “Fellow Address: The Growth Performance of Agriculture in Subsaharan Africa”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 82, pp. 1075-1086. Bloom, D.E. and Sachs, J.D. (1998). Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2: 207-273. Christiansen, L., Demery, L. and Paternostro, S. (2002). Growth, Distribution, and Poverty in Africa, World Bank: Washington, DC. Collier, P. and J.W. Gunning (1999a). Why Has Africa Grown Slowly?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13: 3-22. Deaton, A. (1999). “Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa”, Journal of Economics Perspectives, 13, pp. 23-40. Dercon, S. and P. Krishnan, (2000). Vulnerability, Seasonality and Poverty in Ethiopia. Journal of Development Studies 36(6): 25.53. Drechsel et al. (2001), P.; L. Gyiele; D. Kunze and O. Cofie. (2001). “Population density, soil nutrient depletion, and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa”, Ecological Economics, 38, pp. 251-258. Elbadawi, I. and B. Ndulu (1996), “Long Run Development and Sustainable Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa”, in New Directions in Development Economics, M. Lundahl and B. Ndulu (eds.). London: Routledge. Frisvold, G. and Ingram, K. (1995). “Sources of Agricultural Productivity Growth and Stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa”, Agricultural Economics, 13, pp. 51-61. Gallup, J. K. and Sachs., J. D. (2000). “Agriculture, Climate, and Technology: Why are the Tropics Falling Behind?”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 82, pp. 731-737. Gommes, R. and F. Petrassi, (1996), “Rainfall variability and drought in sub-Saharan Africa since 1960”, FAO Agrometeorology Series 9, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Hulme, M., R. Doherty, M. New and T. Ngara (2001). African climate change: 1900- 2100, Climate Research 17: 145-168. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. Jagtap, S. S. and A. K. Chan, (2000). “Agro meteorological aspects of agriculture in the sub-humid and humid zones of Africa and Asia”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 103, pp. 59-72 Johnson, D. and Evensohn, R. (2000). “How Far Away is Africa? Technological Spillovers and Productivity”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 82, pp. 743 -749. Mitchell, T. D., M. Hulme and M. New (2002). "Climate data for political areas." Area 34(1): 109-112. Molua, E.L., (2002). “Climate Variability, Vulnerability and Effectiveness of Farm-Level Adaptation Options: The Challenges and Implications for Food Security in Southwestern Cameroon”, Environment and Devlopment Economics, 7, pp. 529-45. Nicholson, S.E. and D. Entekhabi, (1986). “The quasi-periodic behavior of rainfall variability in Africa and its relationship to the Southern oscillation”, Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 34, pp. 331-348. Nicholson, S.E. (1994). “Recent rainfall fluctuations in Africa and their relationship to past conditions over the continent”, The Holocene, 4, pp. 121-131. Nicholson, S.E. (2001). “Climatic and Environmental Change in Africa During the Last Two Centuries”, Climate Research, 17, pp. 123-144. O’Connell, S.A. and B.J. Ndulu (2000). “Africa’s Growth Experience”, mimeo. Reibsame, E. (1989). “Assessing the Implications of Climate Fluctuations: A Guide to Climate Impact Studies”, UNEP, Nairobi. Reilly, J., N. Hohmann and S. Kane, (1994), Climate Change and Agricultural Trade: Who Benefits and Who Loses?, Global Environmental Change, 4, pp. 24-36. Richard, Y., S. Trzaska, P. Roucou and M. Rouault (2000), “Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960’s”, Climate Dynamics, 16, pp. 883-895. Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M. (1994), “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Agriculture”, Nature ,367, pp. 133-138 Sachs, J. and A. Warner (1998), Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies, Journal of African Economies, 6, pp. 335-76. Shinoda, M., (2001). Desertification and drought as a possible land-surface/ atmosphere interaction. Japanese Progress in Climatology 2001:1-7. UNEP, (1997). World Atlas of Desertification, United Nations Environment Program, Edward Arnold, London.