Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (1991): Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia. Published in: IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 38, No. 4 (December 1991): pp. 705-735.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_6980.pdf Download (3MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Using annual data for Colombia over the last 30 years, we test competing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: the neoclassical synthesis, which posits that in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time with increases in the price level; and an alternative explanation, which focuses on "real" technological or preference shocks as sources of output changes. Coefficients from this system are used to examine the long-run neutrality of nominal quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Colombia, inflation, growth, exchange rates,VAR |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles |
Item ID: | 6980 |
Depositing User: | Carmen Reinhart |
Date Deposited: | 10 Apr 2008 07:10 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 03:07 |
References: | Adams, Charles, "Trends and Cycles in the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Paper 90/72 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1990). Barro, Robert J., "Money and Output in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil," in Short-term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America, ed. by J. Behrman and J.A. Hanson (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger Publishing, 1979). Bernanke, Ben S., "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," in Real Business Cycles and Actual Policies, ed. by Allan H. Meltzer and Karl Brunner, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (New York; Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1986). Blanchard, Olivier J., "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, Vol. 79 (December 1989), pp. 1146-64. ---, "Why Does Money Affect Output?" in Handbook of Monetary Economics, Vol. 2, ed. by Benjamin M. Friedman and Frank H. Hahn (Amsterdam; New York: North-Holland, 1990). Cagan, Philip D., "Money-Income Causality-A Critical Review of Literature Since the Monetary History," Columbia University Discussion Paper No. 373 (New York: Columbia University, January 1988). Calvo, Guillermo A., "Staggered Contracts in a Utility-Maximizing Framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 12 (1983), pp. 383-98 . . ---, and Carlos A. Vegh (1990a), "Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open- Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case," Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 37 (December), pp. 753-76. --- (1990b), "Money Supply and Interest Rate Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," IMF Working Paper 90/119 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Campbell, J.Y., and P. Perron, "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," paper presented at the NBER Macroeconomics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts, March 8-9, 1991 (unpublished; Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991). Clavijo, Sergio V., "Macroeconometrics of a Small Open Economy Using Vector Autoregression Analysis" (doctoral dissertation; Urbana: University of Illinois, 1987). ---, and Hernando J. Gomez, "Selecci6n y Control de Agregados Monetarios Optimos," Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, No. 14 (December 1988), pp.3~. Dickey, D.A., and W.A. Fuller, "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Vol. 49 (July 1981), pp. 1057-72. Edwards, Sebastian, "Coffee, Money, and Inflation in Colombia," World Development, Vol. 12 (December 1984), pp. 1107-17. Engle, Robert F., and CW.J. Granger, "Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Vol. 55 (March 1987), pp. 251-76. Fernandez Riva, J., "Inflaci6n y Dinero: Un Repaso," Debates de Coyuntura Econ6mica, Vol. 9 (March 1988), pp. 27-35. Granger, CW.J., and Paul Newbold, "Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 2 (July 1974), pp. 111-20. Khan, Mohsin, "Monetary Shocks and the Dynamics of Inflation," Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 27 (June 1980), pp. 250-84. King, Robert, and Charles Plosser, "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, Vol. 74 (June 1984), pp. 363-80. ---, "Money as the Mechanism of Exchange," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 17 (January 1986), pp. 93-115. Kydland, Finn E., and Edward C Prescott, "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Vol. 50 (November 1982), pp. 1345-70. Leiderman, Leonardo, "On the Monetary-Macro Dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 14 (January /February 1984), pp. 183-201. Lizondo, J. Saul, and Peter J. Montiel, "Fiscal Policy and the Dynamics of Devaluation for a Small Country with Optimizing Agents" (unpublished; Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1991). Lutkepohl, Helmut, "Comparison of Criteria for Estimating the Order of a Vector Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 6 (1985), pp. 35-52. Mankiw, N. Gregory, "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 3 (Summer 1989), pp. 79-89. Montiel, Peter J., and Jonathan D. Ostry, "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 38 (December 1991), pp. 872-900. Mussa, Michael, "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, Vol. 71 (December 1981), pp. 1020-27. ---, "Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence and Implications," in Real Business Cycles and Actual Policies, ed. by Allan H. Meltzer and Karl Brunner, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (New York; Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1986). Ohanian, Lee E., "The Spurious Effects of Unit Roots on Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 39, No.2 (1988), pp. 251-66. Phillips, P.CB., "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Vol. 55 (March 1987), pp. 277-301. Plosser, Charles 1., "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 3 (Summer 1989), pp. 51-78. Renhack, Robert, and Guillermo Mondino, "Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy in Colombia," IMF Working Paper 88/77 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1988). Sims, Christopher A., "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles," American Economic Review, Vol. 70 (March 1980), pp. 250-56. Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson, "Interpreting the Evidence on Money- Income Causality," Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 40, No. 1 (1989), pp. 161-81. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/6980 |