中国政府消费支出对经济波动的传导机理分析

Xu, Kun and Xu, Wenli (2015): 中国政府消费支出对经济波动的传导机理分析.

Abstract

受“三期叠加”影响，中国经济“新常态”调整可能陷入“突然停顿”或“回归均值”或“走走停停”困境，因此稳定经济增长已成为调控中国经济最紧迫任务。本文从理论层面，详细分析了政府消费性支出影响经济波动的税收债务机制以及非需求性机制，揭示其作用机制与内在机理。基于这一机理，利用中国1978年至2014年宏观经济数据，应用分位数回归方法，分析了政府消费性支出波动对经济波动影响途径的差异，结果表明：（1）需求波动具有顺周期特征且是产出波动的根本原因；（2）政府消费波动不是引起产出波动的原因；（3）我国传导政府消费波动的税收-债务机制、税率机制和财政支出制度机制失效。因此本文建议政府制定稳定政策时应当以需求管理为主，且必须首先理顺财政政策传导机制，保证各机制有效运行。

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Study on Influential Mechanism Between Government Expenditure of Consumption and Economic Fluctuation
• Language: Chinese
• Keywords: 政府消费性支出；私人投资；挤入效应；经济波动
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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