Investissements Sociaux et Pauvreté en R.D.Congo: Une Approche en Équilibre Général

Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise (2016): Investissements Sociaux et Pauvreté en R.D.Congo: Une Approche en Équilibre Général.

Abstract

This work examines the impact of social investments and poverty in the D.R.Congo. The general equilibrium approach was used. To this end, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model was built and calibrated based on the 2013 Social Accounting Matrix. Three scenarios were considered in terms of simulations: in the first, an increase in investment expenditure in the education sector has been envisaged; in the second, the corresponding increase in the health sector has been considered and the last scenario combines the two aforementioned. The results show the extent of the implications of such investments on the output and poverty. They reveal also transmission channels by which stakeholders are likely to be affected, while emphasizing the order of magnitude of impacts. The study concludes with a contribution.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Social Investments and Poverty in the D.R.Congo : A General Equilibrium Approach
• Language: French
• Keywords: Social Accounting Matrix, Computable General Equilibrium Model
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E10 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E16 - Social Accounting Matrix

References

Allen, S., O. Badiane, L. Sene et J. Ulimwengu. 2014, «Government expenditures, health outcomes and marginal productivity of agricultural inputs : The case of tanzania», Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65,no 3, p. 637–662.

Allen, S. L. et J. Ulimwengu. 2015, «Agricultural productivity, health and public expenditures in sub-saharan africa», European Journal of Development Research, vol. 27, no 3, p. 425–437.

Annabi, J., J. Cockburn et B. Decaluwé. 2003, «Formes fonctionnelles et paramétrisation dans les mceg», CRÉFA, Université Laval.

Baker, J. L. 2000, Evaluating the impact of development projects on poverty : A handbook for practitioners, World Bank Publications.

Becker, H. A. 2001, «Social impact assessment», European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 128, no 2, p. 311–321.

Bourguignon, F. «Ex-ante marginal incidence analysis of transfer programs», Tool Kit : techniques and tools for evaluating the poverty impact of economic policies.(cap. 6).(versión preliminar).Banco Mundial. Tomado de http://www.worldbank.org, 2002.

Bourguignon, F., C. Diaz-Bonilla et H. Lofgren. 2006, «Aid, service delivery and the mdgs in an economy-wide framework», World Bank paper (draft), December, vol. 20.

Bourguignon, F., L. A. P. da Silva et N. Stern. 2004, «Evaluating the poverty impact of economic policies», Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty, p.36.

Cantillo, S., W. Jiménez Castro, R. Díaz Porras, E. Lizano, T. González, H. G De Grammont, P. Vásquez, H. M De Grammont, E. Camou Healy, P. López et collab.. 2004, «Rising inequality and falling poverty in costa rica’s agriculture during trade reform : a macro-micro general quilibrium analysis.», cahier de recherche, UNED, San José (Costa Rica).

Castro-Leal, F., J. Dayton, L. Demery et K. Mehra. 1999, «Public social spending in africa : do the poor benefit ?», The World Bank Research Observer, vol. 14, no 1, p. 49–72.

Cloutier, M.-H., J. Cockburn et B. Decaluwé. 2004, Éducation et pauvreté au Viet Nam : une analyse en équilibre général calculable, thèse de doctorat, Université Laval.

De Melo, J. 1989, «Computable general equilibrium models for trade policy analysis in developing countries : A survey», Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 10, no 4, p.469–503.

Decaluwé, B., J.-C. Dumont, L. Savard et collab.. 1999a, «Measuring poverty and inequality in a computable general equilibrium model», Cahier de recherche du CRÉFA n, vol.99, p.20.

Decaluwé, B., A. Lemelin, H. Maisonnave et V. Robichaud. 2013, «Pep-1-t», Standard PEP model : single-country, recursive dynamic version. Politique Économique et Pauvreté/Poverty and Economic Policy Network. Université Laval, Québec.

Decaluwé, B., A. Martens et L. Savard. 2001, La politique économique du développement et les modèles d’équilibre général : calculable, PUM.

Decaluwé, B., A. Patry, L. Savard, E. Thorbecke et collab.. 1999b, «Poverty analysis within a general equilibrium framework», African Economic Research Consortium.

Defourny, J. et E. Thorbecke. 1984, «Structural path analysis and multiplier decomposition within a social accounting matrix framework», The Economic Journal, p.111–136.

Demery, L. 2000, «Benefit incidence : a practitioner’s guide», The World Bank. Washington, DC.

Demery, L., S. Chao, R. Bernier et K. Mehra. 1995, The incidence of social spending in Ghana, The World Bank.

Demery, L., J. Dayton et K. Mehra. 1996, «The incidence of social spending in côte d’ivoire, 1986– 95», Washington, DC, World Bank, Poverty and Social Policy Department.

Devarajan, S. et S. Go. 2003, «The 123prsp model», The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Evaluation Techniques and Tools, p. 277–99.

Fofana, I., J. C. Parra et Q.Wodon. 2009, «Exports and labor income by gender : a social accounting matrix analysis for senegal».

Group, W. B. 2012, World Development Indicators 2012, World Bank Publications.

Group, W. B. 2014, World development indicators 2014, World Bank Publications.

Herderschee, H., D. M. Samba et M. T. Tshibangu. 2012, Résilience d’un géant africain : accélerer la croissance et promouvoir l’emploi en République démocratique du Congo, Mediaspaul.

IMF, D. 2015a, «Selected issues», IMF country report, vol. 15-281.

IMF, D. 2015b, «Selected issues», IMF country report, vol. 15-2805.

INS. 2014, «Enquête 1-2-3 : Résultats de l’enquête sur l’emploi, le secteur informel et sur la consommation des ménages/2012», Rapport global, Institut National de la Statistique, Ministère du Plan et suivi de la mise en oeuvre de la révolution de la modernité, R.D.Congo, Septembre.

Jung, H.-S. et E. Thorbecke. 2001, «The impact of public education expenditure on human capital, growth, and poverty in tanzania and zambia a general equilibrium approach».

Kakwani, N. 2000, «On measuring growth and inequality components of poverty with application to thailand», Journal of Quantitative Economics, vol. 16, no 1, p. 67–80.

Kamiantako, M. 1993, «The impact of stabilization and structural policies in zaire : Analysis within a social accounting matrix framework», Visiting Research Fellow Series 221, Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo, November : 1-83.

Laabas, B., I. Limam et collab.. 2004, «Impact of public policies on poverty, income distribution and growth», IFPRI/API Collaborative Research Project.

Lofgren, H., R. L. Harris et S. Robinson. 2002, A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS, vol. 5, Intl Food Policy Res Inst.

Lofgren, H. et S. Robinson. 2008, «Public spending, growth, and poverty alleviation in sub-saharan africa : a dynamic general-equilibrium analysis», Public expenditures, growth, and poverty : lessons from developing countries.

McCarl, B. A., A. Meeraus, P. van der Eijk, M. Bussieck, S. Dirkse, P. Steacy et F. Nelissen. 2015, «Mccarl expanded gams user guide version 24.5».

Mondiale, B. 2003, «Guide pour l’analyse des impacts sur la pauvreté et le social», Poverty Reduction Group and Social Development Department.

Mwania, K. 2006, Développement urbain, développement rural et stratégie de lutte contre la pauvreté, thèse de doctorat.

Nganou, J.-P., J. C. Parra et Q. Wodon. 2009, «Oil price shocks, poverty, and gender : a social accouting matrix analysis for kenya».

Nganou, J.-P. N. 2005, A Multisectoral Analysis of Growth Prospects for Lesotho : SAM Multiplier Decomposition and Computable General Equilibrium Perspectives.

Ngeleza, G. K., X. Diao, J. Ulimwengu et J. Randriamamonjy. 2011, «Tendances de long terme pour la croissance et la réduction de la pauvreté en rdc : Une approche d’équilibre général», DRCSSP Policy Note 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Nlemfu Mukoko, J. et J. Wabenga Yango. 2014, «Croisssance agricole et options d’investissement en r.d.congo : une analyse en equilibre général calculable», Mpra paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Nlemfu Mukoko, J. B. et J. Wabenga Yango. 2015a, «Analyse de l’économie congolaise à travers la matrice de comptabilité sociale de 2005», Mpra paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Nlemfu Mukoko, J. B. et J. Wabenga Yango. 2015b, «Une matrice de comptabilité sociale pour la r.d. congo : Mcs-rdc2005», Mpra paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Osorio, J. C. P. et Q. Wodon. 2010a, «Gender, time use, and labor income in guinea : micro and macro analyses», Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Market, p. 231.

Osorio, J. C. P. et Q. Wodon. 2010b, «How does growth affect labor income by gender ? a structural path analysis for tanzania», Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Market, p. 273.

Parra, J. C. et Q. Wodon. 2009, «Simsip sam : A tool for the analysis of input-output tables and social accounting matrices», The World Bank, Version, vol. 1.

Parra, J. C. et Q. T. Wodon. 2008, «Comparing the impact of food and energy price shocks on consumers : a social accounting matrix analysis for ghana», World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol.

PNUD. 2015a, Rapport Bilan OMD 2000-2015, PNUD Publications.

PNUD. 2015b, Rapport sur le développement humain 2015, PNUD Publications.

Ravallion, M. 2003, «Assessing the poverty impact of an assigned program», The impact of economic policies on poverty and income distribution : evaluation techniques and tools, vol. 1.

Ravallion, M. 2007, «Evaluating anti-poverty programs», Handbook of development economics,vol.4, p.3787–3846.

Shoven, J. B. et J. Whalley. 1992, Applying general equilibrium, Cambridge university press.

Son, H. H. 2003, «A new poverty decomposition», The Journal of Economic Inequality, vol. 1, no 2,p.181–187.

Thorbecke, E. 2000, «The use of social accounting matrices in modeling», dans 26th general conference of the international association for research in income and wealth Cracow, Poland, vol. 27.

Thorbecke, E. 2003, «Poverty analysis and measurement within a general equilibrium framework»,Reducing poverty in Asia : emerging issues in growth, targeting, and measurement, p. 45–78.

Thurlow, J. 2004, «A dynamic computable general equilibrium (cge) model for south africa : Extending the static ifpri model», Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies, Johannesburg.

Vera-Martin, M. 1999, «Long-run growth in mali, niger and senegal», unpublished paper, Washington DC : IMF.

Van de Walle, D., K. Nead et collab.. 1995, Public spending and the poor : Theory and evidence, World Bank Publications.

Van de Walle, D. P. 1996, «Assessing the welfare impacts of public spending», World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, no 1670.