Si Mohammed, Kamel and Chérif touil, Noreddine and Maliki, Samir (2015): An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic. Published in: An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic , Vol. 3, No. 11 (November 2015): pp. 19-27.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_75285.pdf Download (222kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The goal of this study is to examine the validity of the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for a sample of nine principle trade partners of Algeria namely Canada, China, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the euro zone countries. Using panel error correction model (PECM) upon monthly data for the period 2003 M1 – 2015M5, results suggested that the bilateral exchange rate movements is a suitable to support the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. However, suggesting that there is long run relationship between exchange rates and relative prices in foreign courtiers by using panel cointegraion of Pedroni (1999, 2004), that can be interpreted by the validity of purchasing power parity for nine principle trade partners of Algeria
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic |
English Title: | An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Algeria, panel cointegration, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), panel error correction model (PECM) |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G00 - General |
Item ID: | 75285 |
Depositing User: | Samir Baha-eddine Maliki |
Date Deposited: | 28 Nov 2016 10:24 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 15:14 |
References: | Abderrezzak Benhabib, Kamel Si Mohammed and Samir, B Maliki, (2014), The relationship between oil price and the Algerian exchange rate Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, Vol. 16, No. 1, May Abuaf, N., and P. Jorion, 1990, Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run, Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, pp. 157–74. Adler, M., and B. Lehmann, 1983, Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run, Journal of Finance, Vol. 38, pp. 1471–87. Agenor PR, Taylor MP. 1993, The causality between official and parallel exchange rates in developing countries, Applied Financial Economics, 3, 255–266. Alper Aslan and Ferit Kula., 2007, examining the validity of ppp: the black market exchange rate versus official rate, journal of economics and business vol. x, no 2 (83-92) Aslan, A., Kula, F. and Kalyoncu, H. (2010). Additional evidence of long-run purchasing power parity with black and official exchange rates, Applied Economics Letters, First published on 28 September 2009 (iFirst) URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850902967522 Baghestani H. (1997), Purchasing power parity in the presence of foreign exchange black markets: the case of India, Applied Economics, 29, 1147–1154. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1993), PPP Based on Effective Exchange Rate and Cointegration: 25 LDCs Experience with its Absolute Formulation, World Development, 21(6): 1023-1031. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and S. Shin. 2002. Stability of the demand for money in Korea. International Economic Journal 16 (Summer): 85-95. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., T. Chang, and Kuei-Chiu Lee (2013), Purchasing Power Parity in the BRICS and the MIST Countries: Sequential Panel Selection Method, Review of Economics & Finance, 45(32): 4584-4590 Baillie, R.T. and D. Selover, 1987, Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination, International Journal of Forecasting 3, 43-51. Basher, S.A. and Haug, A.A. (2007), Linear or Nonlinear Cointegration in the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship? University of Otego Economics Discussion Papers No. 0712 Billmeier, A and Bonato L, Exchange Rate Pass- Through and Monterey Policy in Croatia " Working Paper, No 02/109, IMF European Department, USA, 2002 Bouteldja, A et al, 2013, The Black Market Exchange Rate and Demand for Money in Algeria” International Journal of Arts and Commerce Vol. 2 No. 10 November, 2013, pp71-82. Casel, G., 1916, the present situation of the foreign exchange rate, Economic journal, 26, 413-415 Casel, G., 1918, Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges, Economic Journal, Vol. 28, pp. 413–15. Casel, G.; 1922. Money and Foreign Exchange after 1914. Constable, London, U.K Cerrato M, Sarantis N. (2007), Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from a Panel of Black Market Exchange Rates, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 12, 427–444. Cheung, Y.-W., and K.S. Lai, 1993a, A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 11, pp. 103–12. Cheung, Yin-Wong and Lai, Kon S., 1993, Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity during the Recent Float, Journal of International Economics 34, 181-192 Cumby, R., Obstfeld, M., 1984. International interest rate and price level linkages under flexible exchange rates: A review of recent evidence. In: Bilson, J., Marston, R. (Eds.), Exchange Rate Theory and Practice. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., (1979). Distribution of the Estimators of Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol 74, No. 366a, 427-431. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1981. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49, 1057--72. Diebold, F. X. and J. M. Nason (1990), Nonparametric Exchange Rate predication?, journal of international economies. Diebold, F., Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates, New York: Springer Verlag, 1988. Diebold, F.X., S. Husted, and M. Rush, 1991, Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 99, pp. 1252–71. * E1-Sakka, M.I.T., & McNabb, R. [1994] , Cointegration and Efficiency of the Black Marker for Foreign Exchange: A PPP Test for Egypt `. Economic Notes, Vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 473-480 Engel, Charles, and jamies Hamilton, ‘Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?’ American Economic Reck,, September 1990. 80: 689-713. Frenkel, J.A., 1978, “Purchasing Power Parity: Doctrinal Perspective and Evidence from the 1920s,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 8, pp. 169–91. Frenkel, J.A., 1981, “The Collapse of Purchasing Power Parities During the 1970s,” European Economic Review, Vol. 16, pp. 145–65. Frenkel, Jacob A. and Harry G. Johnson. 1976. The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments. London: Allen & Unwin. Ghestani, H. 1997. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Presence of Foreign Exchange Black Market: The Case of India." Applied Economics 29 (September): 1147-1154. Gilbert Milton and Irving B. Kravis (1954) an international comparison of national products and the Purchasing power parity of currencies , OEEC, Paris Granger, C.W.J., and P. Newbold, 1974, “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 2, pp. 111–20. Hadri, K. 2000. Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. Econometrics Journal 3: 148–161. Hassanain K., (2005), the real exchange rate and the black market exchange rate in developing countries, Empirical Economics, 30(2), 483-492. Huizhen He, Ming Che Chou and Tsangyao Chang, Purchasing power parity for 15 Latin American countries: Panel SURKSS test with a Fourier function, Economic Modelling 36 (2014) 37–43 Hussein Al-Zyoud (2015) an empirical test of purchasing power parity theory for Canadian dollar-us dollar exchange rates, international journal of economics and finance; vol. 7, no. 3; 2015 Hyrina, Y., & Serletis, A. (2010). Purchasing power parity over a century. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(1), 117-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/01443581011012289 I A Venetis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "ESTAR model with multiple fixed points. Testing and Estimation," Working Papers 599093, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J. Econom. 115, 53–74. Kravis and Lipsey (1978), price behavior in the light of balance of payment theories journal of international economies , 2 193-264 Levin, A., Lin, C.F., Chu, C.-S.J., 2002. Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. J. Econom. 108, 1–24. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, Chong T. Tai-Leung and Lim Kian-Ping (2003), Inadequacy of Linear Autoregressive Model for Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence fromAsian Economies,” Applied Economics 35, 1387 – 1392 Lothian, James R. and Mark P. Taylor. 1996. “Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries.” Journal of Political Economy. 104:3, pp. 488–509 MacDonald, Ronald and Mark P. Taylor, "The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-Run Dynamics and How to Beat a Random Walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, June 1994, 13: 276-290. MacDonald, Ronald and Mark P. Taylor, the monetary approach to the exchange rate: rational expectations, long-run equilibrium and forecasting short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk,IMF Staff Papers, March 1993, 40: 89-107. Mark, N.C., 1990, Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation, Journal of International Economics 28, 115-136. Meese, R.A., and K. Rogoff, 1988, “Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, pp. 933–48. Mohsen Bahmani-OSkooee and Gour G. Goswami, 2005, Black Market Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity in Emerging Economies , emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 41, no. 3, May-June, pp. 37-52. Muhammad Tayyab, Ayesha Tarar and Madiha Riaz (2012) Application of Smooth Transition autoregressive (STAR) models for Exchange Rate, Mathematical Theory and Modeling, Vol.2, No.9, pp30-39. Ozdemir ZA, (2008) the Purchasing Power Parity in Turkey: evidence from Nonlinear STAR error correction models, Appl.Econ, Lett 15:307-311 Patel, J. [1990], “Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation,” Journal of Applied Econometrics 5; pp. 367-79. Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,” Oxford Bull. Econ. Statistics, Special Issue 61:653-678 Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and finite samples properties of pooled time series Tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econ. Theory 20: 597-625 Pedroni, P., 2001b. Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Rev. Econ. Stat. 83, 727–731. Peter Mikek and Alenka Kavkler (2008), nonlinear real exchange rate dynamics in Slovenia and Slovakia, at Online: https://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/gdn/rrc/rrcvi_36_paper_03.pdf. Phillips P.C.B. and Perron P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.” Biometrika, Vol. 75, 335-346 R. Roll. "Violations of Purchasing Power Parity and Their Implications for Efficient International Commodity Markets," M. Sarnat and G. P. Szego (eds), International Finance and Trade, Vol. 1, Chapter 6, Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1979. Raymond Robertson, Anil Kumarb, and Donald H. Dutkowsky Weak-form and strong-form purchasing power parity between the US and Mexico: A panel cointegration investigation Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 42, December 2014, Pages 241–262 Ricardo, David, "The High Price of Bullion: A Proof of the Depreciation of Bank Notes," 1811, in E.C.K. Gonner, ed., Economic Essays by David Ricardo, 4th ed., London, Frank Cass, 1969, pp. 1-60. Rogoff, R, 1996, “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34, pp. 647–68. sanchez-Fung, J.R. 1999. Efficiency of the Black Market for Foreign Exchange and PPP: The Case of the Dominican Republic. Applied Economic Letters 6 (March): 173-176 Sarantis, N. (1999). Modeling Non-linearities in Real Effective Exchange Rates. Journal of International Money and Finance 18 (1): 27–45. Sarno, L., M. P. Taylor (2002), Purchasing power parity and the real exchange rate. IMF Staff Papers 49: 65-105. Schinasi, G.J. and P.A.V.B. Swamy (1989). The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change. Journal of International Money and Finance, 8(3), 375-390. Shively, Philip A., 2001, A Test of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity, Economics Letters 73, 201-205. Taylor, M.P. and D.A. Peel (2000). Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19(1), 33-53. Taylor, Mark P. 1988. “An Empirical Examination of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity Using Cointegration Techniques.” Applied Economics. 20:10, pp. 1369–381. Walter Enders and Razvan Pascalau, (2015), Pretesting for multi-step-ahead exchange rate forecasts with STAR models International Journal of Forecasting, 31, (2015), 473–487 Wheatley, John, report on the reports of the Bank Committees, Shrewsbury, 1819. Wihlborg, Clas, exchange rates, purchasing power parity and relative prices—taxonomy, theory and empirical evidence, New York, New York University Paper No. 78-95, 1978. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/75285 |