К вопросу о долгосрочной взаимосвязи реального потребления домохозяйств с реальным доходом в РФ

Polbin, Andrey and Fokin, Nikita (2017): К вопросу о долгосрочной взаимосвязи реального потребления домохозяйств с реальным доходом в РФ. Published in: Russia Economic Development , Vol. 24, No. 10 (November 2017): pp. 6-16.

Abstract

The paper is devoted to testing for existence of a long run relationship between consumption and income in Russia. We couldn’t find cointegration between consumption of households and GDP in constant prices. But statistical tests are in favor of cointegration between consumption in constant prices and real income which we define as a ratio of nominal GDP to implicit deflator for consumption. We also estimated a VECM model for real consumption and real income. Our results show high predictability of consumption growth by the error correction mechanism.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: A note on cointegration relationship between real consumption and real income in Russia
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: Consumption, consumption forecasting, GDP, real income, VECM, cointegration, permanent income hypothesis, ARIMA
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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