Evaluación de la capacidad predictiva del índice de percepción del consumidor

Acuña, Guillermo (2017): Evaluación de la capacidad predictiva del índice de percepción del consumidor.

Abstract

In this paper the ability of the Economic Perception Index, IPECO, to predict aggregate consumption and other macroeconomic variables is studied. The accuracy of the predictions is improved when IPECO is used as predictor of consumption, in comparison with the predictions of an autoregressive model. The predictive ability of IPECO is higher than the one of its components and, among the components, the most informative are the expectations indexes

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Assessing the predictive power of the consumer perception index
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: confianza, consumidor, prediccion
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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