Determinants of population growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan (1960-2017)

NYONI, THABANI (2018): Determinants of population growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan (1960-2017).

Abstract

The importance of population studies in Pakistan has been recognized since very ancient times. While population growth issues rarely grab the headlines in the media, it is imperative to note that Pakistan continues to be a victim of population growth. Employing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation criterion, the study seeks to uncover the determinants of population growth in Pakistan over the period 1960 – 2017. Diagnostic tests were carried out in order to verify the statistical appropriateness of the estimated model. Amongst other findings, the study revealed that a 1% increase in contraceptive prevalence rate will lead to approximately 3.53% decrease in population growth in Pakistan. The study, whose policy recommendations are four – fold, strongly; encourages the government to put measures as to reduce population growth in Pakistan.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Contraceptive, infant mortality rate, life expectancy, Pakistan, population growth, total fertility rate
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J18 - Public Policy

References

[1] Ademoh, S. E (2017). Population growth and life expectancy: predicting the relationship, Scientific Modeling and Research, 2 (1): 19 – 36

[2] Afzal, M (2009). Population Growth and Economic Development in Pakistan, The Open Demography Journal, 2: 1 – 7

[3] Ahmad, R & Ahmad, K (2016). Impact of Population on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan, Bulletin of Business and Economics, 5 (3): 162 – 176

[4] Ali, S. A (2014). Unmet need for contraception and unintended pregnancies among women of reproductive age group: A situation analysis, El Mednifico Journal, 2 (3): 259 – 265

[5] Anwar, A (2009). Causes and Prevention of Population Explosion in the Rural Areas of Peshawar, Journal of Independent Studies and Research, 7 (1): 1 – 25

[6] Bongaarts, J., Sathar, Z. A & Mahmood, A (2013). Population trends in Pakistan, Population Council Book Series, 1 (1): 13 – 23

[7] Cleland, J., Bernstein, S., Ezeh, A., Faundes, A., Glasier, A & Innis, J (2006). Family Planning: the unfinished agenda, The Lancet, 368 (9549): 1810 – 1827

[8] Gujarati, D. N & Sangeetha, S (2007). Basic Econometrics, Tata McGraw – Hill Publisher, New Delhi

[9] Harrell, F. E (2001). Regression modeling strategies: With applications to linear models, logistic regression and survival analysis, Springer – Verlag, New York

[10] Huda, S (2014). Determinants of Population Growth in Pakistan, Advance Educational Institute & Research Centre – International Journal of Endorsing Health Science Research, 2 (2): 97 – 99

[11] Kamal, A & Pervaiz, K (2011). Factors Affecting the Family Size in Pakistan: Clog – log Regression Model Analysis, Journal of Statistics, 18: 29 – 53

[12] Miller, A. J (2002). Subset selection in regression, Chapman & Hall, London

[13] Nyoni, T & Bonga, W. G (2017). Population Growth in Zimbabwe: A Threat to Economic Development? Dynamic Research Journals Journal of Economics and Finance, 2 (6): 29 – 39

[14] Qu, J., Cui, Y., Yang, A., Peng, Y & Zhang, H (2011). The Study of the Prediction Model of China Population Growth, Journal of Computers, 6 (10): 2076 – 2083

[15] Rosen, J. E & Conly, S. R (1995). Pakistan’s population program: the challenges ahead

[16] Siddiqui, F. A (1998). Population Growth and Development Prospects for Pakistan, The Pakistan Development Review, Part II (Winter, 1998): 557 – 574

[17] Singh, V. V., Mittal, A & Smarandache, F (2017). Determinants of Population Growth in Rajasthan: An Analysis, University of Rajasthan, pp: 1 – 12

[18] Wei, H., Jiang, Y & Zhang, Y (2015). A review of two population growth models and an analysis of factors affecting the Chinese population growth, Asia Journal of Economic Modeling, 3 (1): 8 – 20.