What nexus exists between exchange rate and trade balance? The case of Nigeria vis-à-vis UK, US and Hong Kong

Raifu, Isiaka Akande and Aminu, Alarudeen and Adeniyi, Oluwatosin Ademola (2019): What nexus exists between exchange rate and trade balance? The case of Nigeria vis-à-vis UK, US and Hong Kong.

Abstract

The role of exchange rate movements in determining the trading position of a country and the ultimate welfare of its people vis-à-vis its trading partners is enormous. Consequently, this study is conducted to examine the nature of the trading relationship between Nigeria and its trading partners in three continents-North America, Europe and Asia. The study specifically focuses on how the fluctuation of naira vis-à-vis the pound sterling, dollar and Yuan affects Nigeria's trading position in relation to UK, US and Hong Kong (China). Quarterly data that span the period from 1981 to 2015 were used and linear and Non-linear ARDL estimation techniques were deployed to prove the existence of linear and nonlinear J-Curve. The findings, based on linear ARDL, show no proof of J-Curve in all the models, however, cointegration exists between the trade balance and the exchange rate dynamics. In non-linear ARDL, the existence of J-Curve is only observed in Nigeria-Hong Kong model. However, the findings show that there is both the existence of cointegration and the short-run and the long-run asymmetric nexus between exchange rate dynamics and trade balance in all the models. The overarching implication of the finding is that devaluation of Naira will not improve Nigeria’s trading position vis-à-vis trading partners considered.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Exchange Rate Dynamics, Trade Balance, J-Curve, ARDL, NARDL
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange

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