Pinshi, Christian P. (2018): Les effets macroéconomiques de la chute des cours des produits de base: Evaluation sur la République démocratique du Congo. Published in: International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies , Vol. 24, No. ISSN 2028-9324 (1 August 2018): pp. 167-180.
PDF
MPRA_paper_93130.pdf Download (433kB) |
Abstract
This paper assesses the shock impact of commodity prices on the macroeconomic framework in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Using a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we determine the impulses of each macroeconomic sector to lower prices. The results indicate that this shock leads to complex effects that can lead to systemic risks and crises. We suggest that it would be important for governments, given such shocks, to learn from and take immediate action to strengthen the resilience of the economy and the financial system to future shocks in based.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Les effets macroéconomiques de la chute des cours des produits de base: Evaluation sur la République démocratique du Congo |
English Title: | The Macroeconomic Effects of commodity bust: Assessment on Democratic Republic of the Congo |
Language: | French |
Keywords: | commodity prices, macroeconomic behavior |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E60 - General F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q02 - Commodity Markets |
Item ID: | 93130 |
Depositing User: | Researcher Christian Pinshi |
Date Deposited: | 07 Apr 2019 13:19 |
Last Modified: | 01 Oct 2019 05:12 |
References: | Agarwal (I.), Duttagupta (R.) et Presbitero (A. P.) (2017), “International commodity prices and domestic bank lending in developing countries”, International Monetary Fonds, IFM Working Paper 17/279, décembre. Albert (M.) et Gillet (T.) (2016), “Émergents : les conséquences de la baisse du prix du pétrole”, Problèmes économiques, no. 3132, avril. Anand (R.) et Prasad (E.) (2012), “How should emerging market and low-income country central banks respond to commodity price shocks?”, International Monetary Fonds, Commodity price volatility and inclusive growth in low-income countries, Washington D.C. Azerki (R.) et Blanchard (O.) (2014), “Sept questions sur la chute récente de cours du pétrole”, International Monetary Fonds, iMF direct, décembre. Bajerano (J.), Hamann (F.), Mendoza (E.) et Rodriguez (D.) (2016), “Commodity price beliefs, financial frictions and business cycles” Bank of the Republic Colombia, working Paper, aout. Banque de France (2015), Rapport annuel de la Zone Franc. Blanchard (O.) et Gali (J.) (2007), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?”, International Dimensions of Monetary Policy,. Boyer (R.) (2012), “Comment les théories économiques expliquent-elles les crises ?”, Problèmes économiques, Hors-série numéro 2, novembre. Christensen (B. V.) (2016), “L’Afrique face aux défis liés à la faiblesse des prix des produits de base”, Banque des règlements internationaux, Bis paper no. 87, Département monétaire et économique, septembre. Collier (P) (2009), “Paroles d’économistes : Le milliard le plus pauvre”, Finance et Développement, juin. Destais (C.) (2012), “Une brève histoire des crises financières dans les pays émergents (1982-2002)”, Problèmes économiques, Hors-série numéro 2, novembre. Fonds Monétaire International (2016), “Afrique Subsaharienne : Un changement de cap s’impose”, Perspective de l’Économie Régionale, avril. Gangelhoff (G.) (2015), “The end of the commodity super-cycle? Implications for Usaid presence countries”, economics brief, décembre. Gossé (JB.) et Guillaumin (C.) (2011), “Christopher A. Sims et la représentation Var”, Hal-00642920, novembre. Gruss (B) (2014), “After the boom–commodity prices and economic growth in Latin america and the Caribbean”, International Monetary Fonds, IFM Working Paper 14/154, aout. Hamilton (J.D) (1994), “Time series analysis”, Princeton University Press. Helbling (T.), Mercer-Blackman (V.) et Cheng (K) (2008), “Boom de matières premières : vague”, Finance et Développement, mars. Kamber (G.), Nodari (G.) et Wong (B.) (2016), “The impact of commodity price movements on the New Zealand economy”, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series, mai. Kenkouo (G. A.) (2014), “Dynamique du prix du pétrole et inflation”, Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale, BEAC Working Paper no. 08/15, février. Kinda (T.), Mlachila (M.) et Ouedraogo (R.) (2016), “Commodity price shocks and financial sector fragility”, International Monetary Fonds, IFM Working Paper 16/12, février. Pinshi (C.P.) (2017), “A macroprudential perspective on financial stability”, Global Journal of Management and Business Research : C Finance. Pinshi (C.P.) et Sungani (E.) (2017), “Pertinence de l’effet pass-through : Faut-il revisiter le régime de la politique monétaire ?”, International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, novembre. Shousha (S.) (2016), “Macroeconomic effets of commodity booms and busts : the role of financial frictions”, Job Market Paper, janvier. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/93130 |