Manufacturing Sector Performance, Exchange Rate Volatility and Inclusive Growth In Nigeria (1981-2015)

Kenny S, Victoria (2019): Manufacturing Sector Performance, Exchange Rate Volatility and Inclusive Growth In Nigeria (1981-2015).

Abstract

The effects of the recent global economic crisis on Nigeria have reaffirmed the urgent need for the diversification of the economy. Although, no country is immune to such global crisis, the over-reliance on oil export revenue by Nigeria exposes her exchange rate and economy excessively to external shocks. Therefore, there is the need to conduct a research of this nature to examine Nigeria’s exchange rate sensitivity. This study employed Neo-Classical theory with financial intervention using Cobb Douglas growth model in assessing the impact of manufacturing productivity, exchange rate volatility on inclusive growth in Nigeria using the time series data from 1981 to 2015. The study investigates the long run agriculturally driven economic inclusive growth using Johansen Co-integration test and Normalized Co-integration. This study found out there is a long run relationship between these variables. While manufacturing sector exact more long run effect on per capita income.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Global crisis, economic diversification and growth
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General

References

Adeola, F. A. (2005). Productivity performance in developing countries: Case study of Nigeria. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Report.

Ahelegbey, DF, Billio, M and Casarin R (2016). Bayesian graphical models for structural vector autoregressive processes. Journal of Applied Econometrics 31 (2), 357-386

Ahelegbey DF (2016). The econometrics of Bayesian graphical models: a review with financial application Working Paper, University Ca'Foscari of Venice, Dept. of Economics Research Paper Series

Al Awad, M. (2010). The Role of Manufacturing in Promoting Sustainable Economic Growth in the GCC. Institute for Social and Economic Research Working Paper. No. 4, pp. 1-23.

Alao, R. O. (2010). Productivity in the Nigerian Manufacturing Sub-Sector: Error Correction Model (ECM). European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences. Issue 20, pp. 25-34.

Bergsman, J. (1991). Commercial policy, allocative efficiency and X-efficiency. Quarterly Journal of Economics. vol. 88, pp.409 - 433.

Central Bank of Nigeria (2003). Statistical Bulletin. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Central Bank of Nigeria (2010). Statistical Bulletin. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Central Bank of Nigeria (2011). Statement of Accounts and Annual Reports. Abuja: Central Bank of Nigeria.

Condon, T., Corbo, V. & Melo, J. D. (1985). Productivity growth, external shocks and capital inflow in Chile 1977–81: A general equilibrium analysis The Journal of Policy Modeling. pp. 329–406.

Edwards, S. (1989). Openness, outward orientation, trade liberalization economic performance in developing countries. PPR Working Paper. No. 199, World Bank, June.

Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2015. "Development Accounting of Africa’s Largest Economies – Explaining Differences in Income Levels," MPRA Paper 89081, University Library of Munich

Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2017. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? New Evidence from Non-threshold and Threshold Analysis," MPRA Paper 85784, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Ibhagui, O, 2017. "Linking Fiscal Policy and External Competitiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa – Does Government Spending Drive The Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa,"MPRA Paper 77291, University Library of Munich

Ibhagui, O. (2017).Value and wealth creation : stylized evidence from Nigeria's listed cement companies AfricaGrowth Agenda, Volume 2017 Number 4, Oct/Dec 2017, p. 12 – 17

Ibhagui, O., (2018). The Monetary Model of CIP Deviations, Working Paper

Ibhagui, O, 2018 Interrelations Among Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Pre-and Post-Crisis Analysis. SSRN

Ibhagui, O. 2018. External debt and current account adjustments: The role of trade openness Journal Cogent Economics and Finance, Vol 6

Ibhagui, O W. & Olokoyo, Felicia O., 2018. "Leverage and firm performance: New evidence on the role of firm size," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 57-82.

Ibhagui, Oyakhilome W., 2019. "Does the long-run monetary model hold for Sub-Saharan Africa? A time series and panel-cointegration study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 279-303

Ibhagui, O., (2019). Eurozone Real Output and Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Can Stronger Real Output Lessen the Deviations? Working Paper

Ibhagui, O, 2019. "Wider Covered Interest Parity Deviations and Lower Stock Returns: Evidence from the Eurozone,"MPRA Paper 92363, University Library of Munich

Kassim, L. 2014. Trade liberalisation and the balance of payments in Sub-saharan Africa: a pooled mean group approach. Working Paper

Kassim, L. 2013. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Export Growth and Import Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Studies in Economics 1310, Working Paper

Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.

Oyakhilome W I (2010): Application of teh Kalman Filter to Interest Rate Modelling. Essays towards the AIMS Postgraduate Diploma 2009-10

Oyakhilome, W I, 2018. Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Floating and Non-Floating Regimes, China Finance Review International

Oyakhilome, I. 2017. "Optimal Asset Allocation of a Pension Fund: Does The Fear of Regret Matter?," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 130-159

Oyakhilome, I. 2017. "Understanding the sources of high current account fluctuations in 5 developed economies," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 250-274

Ku, H., Mustapha, U. M. & Goh, S. (2010). A Literature Review of Past and Present Performance of Nigerian Manufacturing Sector. Journal of Engineering Manufacture. Vol. 224, no. 12, pp. 1894-1904.

Nadiri, M. I. (1970). Some approaches to the theory and measurement of total factor productivity: A survey. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 8, no. 4, pp.1137–1177.

Nelson, R. R. (1981). Research on productivity growth and differences. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 14, no. 3, pp.1029–1064.

Nishimizu, M. & Robinson, S. (1983). Trade policies and productivity change in semi-industrialized countries. Development Research Paper. World Bank, March

Obasan, K. A. & Adediran, O. A. (2010). The Role of Industrial Sector in the Economic Development of Nigeria. Journal of Management and Society. Vol. 1, No 2, pp. 9-16.

Olaoye, A. O. (1985). Total factor productivity trends in Nigerian manufacturing. Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies. Vol. 27, pp. 12-34

Opaluwa, D., Umeh, J. C. & Ameh, A. A. (2010). The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigerian manufacturing sector. African Journal of Business Management. Vol. 4, no. 14, pp. 2994-2998.

Pitt, M. M. & Lee, L. F. (1981). The measurement and sources of technical inefficiency in Indonesian weaving industry. Journal of Development Economics. Vol. 9, pp. 43–64.

Tsao, Y. (1985). Growth without productivity: Singapore manufacturing in the 1970s. Journal of Development Economics. Vol. 18, pp. 25–38. Nigeria. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences. Issue 18, pp. 105 – 121.

Udah, E. B. (2010). Industrial Development, Electricity Crisis and Economic Performance

Yucel, T. and Kurt, G. (n.d.) “Foreign Exchange Rate Sensitivity and Stock Price: Estimating Economic Exposure of Turkish Companies”.