The price of demography

Barbiellini Amidei, Federico and Gomellini, Matteo and Piselli, Paolo (2019): The price of demography.

Abstract

A few studies lately explored the relationship between changes in the demographic structure and inflation using mainly cross-country analyses. In this paper we investigate how the evolution in the age structure of the population affected price dynamics in Italy, using annual data for a panel of provinces in the period 1982-2016. The within-country approach allows us to wipe out the effects of supranational shocks, as well as to better take into account the effects of monetary policy, main common driver of price dynamics over the medium-term. We use a set of indicators, namely young age, old age and overall dependency ratios, and the share of working age population. Our results suggest that the ongoing ageing process likely contributed to dampening price dynamics.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Demographic change, price dynamics, panel cointegration
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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