Huntington, Hillard and Barrios, James and Arora, Vipin (2017): Review of Key International Demand Elasticities for Major Industrializing Economies.
PDF
MPRA_paper_95890.pdf Download (847kB) |
Abstract
This study conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses. It emphasizes recent empirical studies that include trends from studies published after 2000. Emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia, although other important nations like Chile and South Korea are also discussed when studies are available. The review focuses attention on the long-run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed. The terminology often refers to elasticities, or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price (or income), holding constant all other factors that could influence energy-use decisions. Most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels; many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation. Based upon the available estimates, price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one (unity) for many countries and sectors, except for the long-run income effect for transportation purposes, which can range widely by country between 0.24 and 1.75 while averaging 0.94 for all countries.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Review of Key International Demand Elasticities for Major Industrializing Economies |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | energy demand; industrializing countries; price elasticity; income elasticity |
Subjects: | O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q41 - Demand and Supply ; Prices |
Item ID: | 95890 |
Depositing User: | Hillard Huntington |
Date Deposited: | 11 Sep 2019 05:45 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 12:45 |
References: | Adeyemi, O.I., Hunt, L.C., 2007. Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change. Energy Econ. 29, 693–709. Adeyemi, O.I., Hunt, L.C., 2014. Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand. Energy Econ. 45 (2014), 435–444. Agrawal, P., 2015. India’s petroleum demand: estimations and projections. Applied Economics 47 (12), 1199–1212. Akay, E.C., Guler, S.K.U., 2016. Determining the functional form of relationships between oil prices and macroeconomic Variables : the case of Mexico. Int. J. Econ. Financ. Issues 6 (3), 880–891. Akinboade, O.A., Ziramba, E., Kumo, W.L., 2008. The demand for gasoline in South Africa : an empirical analysis using Co-integration techniques. Energy Econ. 30, 3222–3229. Aliyu, S.U.R., 2009. Impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria: an empirical investigation. Res. J. Int. Stud. 11, 4–15 8 July. Alom, F., Ward, B., Hu, B., 2011. Spillover effects of world oil prices on food prices: evidence for Asia and pacific countries. In: Proceedings of the 52nd Annual Conference New Zealand Association of Economists 29. Alves, D.C.O., De Losso da Silveira Bueno, R., 2003. Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil. Energy Econ. 25 (2), 191–199. Arora, Vipin, 2013. Models for Use at EIA. Working Paper Series, vol 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC December, available at: https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/macro_models-vipin-wappendix.pdf. Atkinson, S., Halvorsen, R., 1976. Interfuel substitution in steam electric power generation. J. Political Econ. 84 (5), 959–978. Beenstock, M., Willcocks, P., 1981. Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries. Energy Econ. 3, 225–232. Beenstock, M., Willcocks, P., 1983. Energy and economic activity: a reply to Kouris. Energy Econ. 5, 212. Benthem, A. van, Romani, M., 2009. Fuelling growth: what drives energy demand in developing countries? Energy J. 30, 91–114. Berndt, E.R., Samaniego, R., 1984. Residential electricity demand in Mexico - a model distinguishing access from consumption. Land Econ. 60 (3), 268–277 August. Bhattacharyya, S.C., Blake, A., 2009. Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries. Energy Policy 37 (4), 1552–1560 April 1. Bildirici, E.M., Bakirtas, T., 2016. The relationship among oil and coal consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth in BRICTS countries. J. Renew. Sustain. Energy 8, 4. Bose, R.K., Shukla, M., 1999. Elasticities of electricity demand in India. Energy Policy 27 (3), 137–146. Boshoff, W.H., 2012. Gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel demand in South Africa. J. Stud. Econ. Econom. 36 (1), 43–78. Burke, P.J., Liao, H., 2015. Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing? China Econ. Rev. 36, 309–322. Burke, P.J., Yang, H., 2016. The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: international evidence. Energy Econ. 59, 466–474. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M., Raissi, M., 2014. The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy. Energy Econ. 44, 113–134. Cavalcanti, T., Jalles, J.T., 2013. Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States. Appl. Energy 104, 475–486. Chary, S.R., Bohara, A.K., 2010. Energy consumption in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan— a cointegration analysis. J. Dev. Areas 44 (1), 41–50. Cheung, K.Y., Thomson, E., 2004. The demand for gasoline in China: a cointegration analysis. J. Appl. Stat. 31 (5), 533–544. Crôtte, A., Noland, R., Graham, D., 2009. Estimation of road traffic demand elasticities for Mexico city, Mexico. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2134, 99–105. Crotte, A., Noland, R.B., Graham, D.J., 2010. An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. Energy Policy 38 (8), 4445–4456. Cunado, J., Jo, S., Perez de Gracia, F., 2015. Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies. Energy Policy 86, 867–879. Dahl, C., 2014. What Do We Know about Gasoline Demand Elasticities? Colorado School of Mines Division of Economics and Business Working Paper No. 2014-11, November. Dahl, C., Roman, C., 2004. Energy Demand Elasticities - Fact or Fiction: A Survey Update, vol 80401 Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business, Golden, CO Dahl, C., Sterner, T., 1991. Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey. Energy Econ. 13 (3), 203–210. Dargay, J.M., 1992. The irreversible effects of high oil prices: empirical evidence for the demand for motor fuels in France, Germany and the UK. In: Hawdon, D. (Ed.), Energy Demand: Evidence and Expectations. Surrey University Press, Guildford, UK, pp. 165–182 (Chapter 6). Dargay, J.M., Gately, D., 1995. The imperfect price-reversibility of non-transport oil demand in the OECD. Energy Econ. 17 (1), 59–71. Dargay, J.M., Gately, D., 1997. The demand for transportation fuels: imperfect price reversibility? Transp. Res. B 31, 71–82. Dargay, J.M., Gately, D., 2010. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions. Energy Policy 38, 6261–6277. Dimaranan, B.V., McDougall, R.A., Hertel, T.W., 2006. Behavioral parameters. In: Dimaranan, B.V. (Ed.), Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: the GTAP 6 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis. Purdue University. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/861.pdf. Dossary, N. Al, Dahl, C.A., 2009. Is Global Gasoline Demand Still as Responsive to Price? Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business Working Papers. Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business. Elekdag, S., Lalonde, R., Laxton, D., Muir, D., Pesenti, P., 2008. Oil price movements and the global economy: a model-based assessment. IMF Staff Pap. 55 (2), 297–311. Filippini, M., Pachauri, S., 2004. Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households. Energy Policy 32 (3), 429–436. Fisher, F.M., Kaysen, C., 1962. A Study in Econometrics: the Demand for Electricity in the United States. North–Holland Publishing Co, Amsterdam. Fullerton, T.M., Salazar, I.J., Elizalde, M., 2015. Microeconomic gasoline consumption anomalies in Mexico 1997 - 2007. Asian Econ. Financ. Rev. 5 (4), 709–722. Fuss, M.A., 1977. The demand for energy in Canadian manufacturing: an example of the estimation of production structures with many inputs. J. Econom. 5 (1), 89–116. Galindo, L.M., 2005. Short- and long-run demand for energy in Mexico: a cointegration approach. Energy Policy 33 (9), 1179–1185. Gately, D., Huntington, H.G., 2002. The asymmetric effects of changes in price and income on energy and oil demand. Energy J. 23, 19–55. Griffin, J.M., Schulman, C.T., 2005. Price asymmetry in energy demand models: a proxy for energy-saving technical change? Energy J. 26, 1–21. Haro, A., Ibarrola, L., 1999. Gasolina en La Zona fronteriza Norte de México. Gaceta de Economía Año 6 (11), 237–264 Núm. 11 6. He, Y.X., Yang, L.F., He, H.Y., Luo, T., Wang, Y.J., 2011. Electricity demand price elasticity in China based on computable general equilibrium model analysis. Energy 36 (2), 1115–1123. Houthakker, H.S., Taylor, L.D., 1970. Consumer Demand in the United States, 1929-1970. Harvard University Press, Cambridge. Hunt, L.C., Ninomiya, Y., 2003. Unravelling trends and seasonality: a structural time series analysis of transport oil demand in the UK and Japan. Energy J. 24, 63–96. Hunt, L.C., Ninomiya, Y., 2005. Primary energy demand in Japan: an empirical analysis of long-term trends and future C02 emissions. Energy Policy 33, 1409–1424. Hunt, L.C., Judge, G., Ninomiya, Y., 2003a. Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis. Energy Econ. 25, 93–118. Hunt, L.C., Judge, G., Ninomiya, Y., 2003b. Modelling underlying demand trends. Chapter 9. In: Hunt, L.C. (Ed.), Energy in a Competitive Market: Essays in Honour of Colin Robinson. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, pp. 140–174. Huntington, H., 1994. Oil price forecasting in the 1980s: what went wrong? Energy J. 15 (2), 1–22. Huntington, H., 2006. A note on price asymmetry as induced technical change. Energy J. 27, 1–7. Huntington, H.G., 2010. Short- and long-run adjustments in U.S. petroleum consumption. Energy Econ. 33, 63–72. Huntington, H., Barrios, J., Arora, V., 2017. Review of Key International Demand Elasticities for Major Industrializing Economies. MPRA Paper 87532. University Library of Munich, Germany. Inglesi-Lotz, R., Blignaut, J.N., 2011. Estimating the price elasticity of demand for electricity by sector in South Africa. S. Afr. J. Econ. Manag. Sci. 14 (4), 449–465. Ito, K., 2008. Oil price and macroeconomy in Russia. Econ. Bull. 17 (17), 1–9. Iwayemi, A., Adenikinju, A., Babatunde, M.A., 2010. Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria: a multivariate cointegration approach. Energy Econ. 32 (1), 73–85. Jobling, A., Jamasb, T., 2017. Price volatility and demand for oil: a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries. Econ. Anal. Policy 53 (March), 96–113. Ju, K., Zhou, D., Zhou, P., Wu, J., 2014. Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in China: an empirical study based on Hilbert–Huang transform and event study. Appl. Energy 136 (December 31), 1053–1066. Kennedy, P., 2008. A Guide to Econometrics, sixth ed. Blackwell Pub., Malden, MA. Kouris, G., 1983a. Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA. Energy Econ. 5, 89–99. Kouris, G., 1983b. Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialised economies: a note. Energy Econ. 5, 207–212. Krupnick, A., Morganstern, R., Balke, N.S., Brown, S.P.A., Herrera, A.M., Mohan, S., 2017. Oil Supply Shocks, US Gross Domestic Product and the Oil Security Premium, Report. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. Kumar, S., 2009. The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: empirical evidence for India. Econ. Bull. 29 (1), 15–37. Labandeira, X., Labeaga, J.M., Lopez-Otero, X., 2017. A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand. Energy Policy 102, 549–568. Lenzen, M., Wier, M., Cohen, C., Hayami, H., Pachauri, S., Schaeffer, R., 2006. A comparative multivariate analysis of household energy requirements in Australia, Brazil, Denmark, India and Japan. Energy 31 (2–3), 181–207. Liddle, B., Huntington, H., 2018. Revisiting the income elasticity of energy consumption: a heterogeneous, common factor, dynamic OECD & Non-OECD country panel analysis. SSRN Electronic J. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3307173. Lin, C.-Y.C., Zeng, J. (Jean), 2013. The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China. Energy Policy 59 (August 1), 189–197. Ma, C., Stern, D.I., 2016. Long-run estimates of interfuel and interfactor elasticities. Resour. Energy Econ. 46, 114–130. Malakhovskaya, O.A., Minabutdinov, A.R., 2013. Are Commodity Price Shocks Important? A Bayesian Estimation of a DSGE Model for Russia. National Research University Higher School of Economic Working Paper. Matthew, A.O., Adegboye, F.B., 2014. An analysis of the effect of oil price shock and exchange rate instability on economic growth in Nigeria. Scott. J. Arts, Soc. Sci. Sci. Stud. 94–107. McRae, R., 1994. Gasoline Demand in Developing Asian Countries. The Energy Journal 15 (1), 143–155. Orlov, A., 2015. An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: a CGE approach. Energy Econ. 49, 492–506 October. Parry, I., Shang, B., Wingender, P., Vernon, N., Narasimhan, T., 2016. Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective? IMF Working Paper. Perroni, M.G., da Costa, S.E.G., da Silva, W.V., de Lima, E.P., da Veiga, C.P., 2016. Analysis of income elasticities of Brazil's energy matrix. Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy 6 (3), 431–441. Phoumin, H., Kimura, S., 2014. Analysis on price elasticity of energy demand in East Asia: empirical evidence and policy implications for ASEAN and East Asia. ERIA Discuss. Pap. Ser. 05, 1–26. Pindyck, R.S., 1979a. The Structure of World Energy Demand. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Pindyck, R.S., 1979b. Interfuel substitution and the industrial demand for energy: an international comparison. Rev. Econ. Stat. 61 (2), 169–179. Raghavan, M., 2015. The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks on ASEAN‐5 Economies. Tasmanian School of Business and Economics Discussion Paper Series No.2015-10. Ramanathan, R., 1999. Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques. Energy Econ. 21 (4), 321–330. Rasmussen, T.N., Roitman, A., 2011. Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective : Are They Really that Bad ? IMF Working Paper. Salazar, J.I., Cervantes, L.S., 2008. La demanda de Gasolina en méxico el efecto en La frontera Norte. Front. Norte 20, 131–156 no. Enero-Junio. Santos, G.F., 2013. Fuel demand in Brazil in a dynamic panel data approach. Energy Econ. 36, 229–240. Santos, A.I., Colomer, M., 2014. The elasticity of demand for gasoline in Brazil with the introduction of the flex-fuel fleet. In: IAEE International Conference 1–19. Santos, G.F., Faria, W.R., 2014. Spatial panel data models and fuel demand in Brazil. Texto Para Discussão Nereus 10–2012. Sheinbaum, C., Martínez, M., Rodríguez, L., 1996. Trends and prospects in Mexican residential energy use. Energy 21 (6), 493–504. Shi, X., Asia, E., Sun, S., 2007. Oil Price Shocks, Market Distortion and Output Growth : Theory and Evidence from China. Chinese Economics Society Australia Working Paper. Silva, G.F. da, Tiryaki, G.F., Pontes, L.A.M., 2009. The impact of a growing ethanol market on the demand elasticity for gasoline in Brazil. In: 32nd Annual International Association for Energy Economics Conference, San Francisco. Sun, C., Ouyang, X., 2016. Price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand during urbanization: an empirical analysis based on the household-level survey data in China. Energy Policy 88, 56–63. Takeuchi, A., Cropper, M., Bento, A., 2007. The impact of policies to control motor vehicle emissions in Mumbai, India. J. Reg. Sci. 47 (1), 27–46 February. Tang, W., Wu, L., Zhang, Z.X., 2010. Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy. Energy Econ. 32, S3–S14 SUPP-1. Teng, M., Burke, P.J., Liao, H., 2019. The demand for coal among China's rural households: estimates of price and income elasticities. Energy Econ. 80, 928–936. Tiwari, P., 2000. An analysis of sectoral energy intensity in India. Energy Policy 28 (11), 771–778. Trotter, I.M., Bolkesjø, T.F., Féres, J.G., Hollanda, L., 2016. Climate change and electricity demand in Brazil: a stochastic approach. Energy 102, 596–604. Walker, I.O., Wirl, F., 1993. Irreversible price-induced efficiency improvements: theory and empirical application to road transportation. Energy J. 14, 183–205. Wohlgemuth, N., 1998. World transport energy demand modelling. Energy 25 (97), 1109–1119. Xie, Q., Ouyang, H., Gao, X., 2016. Estimation of electricity demand in the residential buildings of China based on household survey data. Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 41 (35), 15879–15886. Yoshino, N., Taghizadeh-hesary, F., 2014. Economic impacts of oil price fluctuations in developed and emerging economies. IEEJ Energy J. 9 (3), 1–17. Yousef, N. Al, 2013. Demand for oil products in OPEC countries: a panel cointegration analysis. Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy 3 (2), 168–177. Yu, Y., Zheng, X., Han, Y., 2014. On the demand for natural gas in urban China. Energy Policy 70, 57–63 October 2016. ZhiDong, L., 2003. An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030. Energy Policy 31 (11), 1137–1150. Zhou, S., Teng, F., 2013. Estimation of urban residential electricity demand in China using household survey data. Energy Policy 61, 394–402 2013. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/95890 |