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Modeling risk of international country relations

Sveshnikov, Sergey and Bocharnikov, Victor (2009): Modeling risk of international country relations.

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Abstract

In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on estimation of coincidences and contradictions of views of countries concerning decision of political, economic, military, domestic and international problems and projects. The model aggregates detailed estimations of separate problems into composite estimation of relations tension with using of fuzzy measures and integrals. The model allows receiving quantitative estimations of tension of international relations which are necessary for making investment decisions. We use this model for estimation of international political-economical risk of Ukraine.

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