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Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle

Holly, Sean and Petrella, Ivan (2009): Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle.

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Abstract

This paper argues that factor demand linkages are crucial in the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise, there is a negative correlation as in much of the existing literature. Furthermore, we find that technology shocks are important drivers of business cycles.

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