Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data

Francesco, D'Amuri (2009): Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_18403.pdf

Download (200kB) | Preview

Abstract

This article tests the power of a novel indicator based on job search related web queries in predicting quarterly unemployment rates in short samples. Augmenting standard time series specifications with this indicator definitely improves out-of-sample forecasting performance at nearly all in-sample interval lengths and forecast horizons, both when compared with models estimated on the same or on a much longer time series interval.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.