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Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting

Eagle, David (2007): Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting.

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Abstract

By presenting two examples where the non-exploding criterion fails miserably, we demonstrate that that criterion does not universally apply. Therefore, by normal academic standards and burdens of proof, the previous price-determinacy literature has the burden to prove that the non-explosive criterion does apply to their models. However, that literature has not met and probably cannot meet that burden. Instead of using the non-explosive criterion, this paper looks at an economy with an arbitrarily large, but finite horizon and concludes that inflation targeting leads to price indeterminacy even with a Taylor-like feedback rule for setting the nominal interest rate.

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