Kitov, Ivan (2006): Real GDP per capita in developed countries.
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Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Real GDP per capita in developed countries|
|Keywords:||economic development; economic trend; business cycle; GDP per capita|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O51 - U.S.; Canada
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
|Depositing User:||Ivan Kitov|
|Date Deposited:||15. Apr 2007|
|Last Modified:||21. Feb 2013 11:36|
The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre (2005), Total Economy Database, August 2005, http://www.ggdc.net Hodrick, R and E. Prescott (1980), Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, Discussion Paper, Northwestern University Kitov, Ivan, (2005a) “GDP growth rate and population”, Research Announcements, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 28 no. 9 p. 1. Kitov, Ivan, (2005b) "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Research Announcements, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 28 no. 11 p. 1. The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2004, Press Release, 11 October 2004, http://nobelprize.org/economics/laureates/2004/press.html Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2005), Purchasing Power Parities 2002, Paris, January 2005, http://www.oecd.org/department/0,2688,en_2649_34357_1_1_1_1_1,00.html Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006), Corporate Data Environment, Labor Market Statistics, DATA, User Queries, January 8, 2006, http://www1.oecd.org/scripts/cde/
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