Real GDP per capita in developed countries

Kitov, Ivan (2006): Real GDP per capita in developed countries.

Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: economic development; economic trend; business cycle; GDP per capita
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O51 - U.S. ; Canada; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles

References

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