Zudenkova, Galina (2010): A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting.
Download (267Kb) | Preview
This paper provides a theoretical model for the coattail effect, where a popular candidate for one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. I assume a political agency framework with moral hazard in order to analyze the coattail effect in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is the outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or member of congress) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or to different parties. Two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, an executive's success props up, while failure drags down, her partisan ally in the congressional election, which implies a presidential coattail effect. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by a congress member's performance, which results in a reverse coattail effect.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting|
|Keywords:||Coattail voting; Presidential coattail effect; Reverse coattail effect; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior|
|Depositing User:||Galina Zudenkova|
|Date Deposited:||11. Feb 2011 18:16|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 17:46|
Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal, 1996. "A Theory of Divided Government," Econometrica, 64, 1311-1341.
Ames, Barry, 1994. "The Reverse Coattails Effect: Local Party Organization in the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election," American Political Science Review, 88, 95-111.
Arulampalam, Wiji, Sugato Dasgupta, Amrita Dhillon, and Dutta Bhaskar, 2009. "Electoral Goals and Center-State Transfers: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, 88, 103-119.
Austen-Smith, David, and Jeffrey S. Banks, 1989. "Electoral Accountability and Incumbency," in P. C. Ordeshook, ed., Models of Strategic Choice in Politics. Ann Arbor MI: University of Michigan Press.
Banks, Jeffrey S., and Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1993. "Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in a Repeated Elections Model," in W. Barnett, M. Hinich, and N. Schofield, eds., Political Economy: Institutions, Information, Competition and Representation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Banks, Jeffrey S., and Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1996. "Electoral Accountability and Selection Effects," University of Rochester, mimeo.
Barro, Robert, 1973. "The Control of Politicians: An Economic Model," Public Choice, 14, 19-42.
Belleflamme, Paul, and Jean Hindriks, 2005. "Yardstick Competition and Political Agency Problems," Social Choice and Welfare, 24, 155-169.
Besley, Timothy, 2006. Principled Agents? The Political Economy of Good Government. Oxford University Press.
Besley, Timothy, and Anne Case, 1995a. "Incumbent Behavior: Vote Seeking, Tax Setting and Yardstick Competition," American Economic Review, 85, 25-45.
Besley, Timothy, and Anne Case, 1995b. "Does Political Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 769-798.
Besley, Timothy, and Anne Case, 2003. "Political Institutions and Policy Choices: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, 41, 7-73.
Besley, Timothy, and Michael Smart, 2007. "Fiscal Restraints and Voter Welfare," Journal of Public Economics, 91, 755-773.
Bolton, Patrick, and Mathias Dewatripont, 2005. Contract Theory. MIT Press.
Bordignon, Massimo, Floriana Cerniglia, and Federico Revelli, 2004. "Yardstick Competition in Intergovernmental Relationships: Theory and Empirical Predictions," Economics Letters, 83, 325-333.
Breton, Albert, 1996. Competitive Governments: an Economic Theory of Politics and Public Finance. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Breton, Albert, and Angela Fraschini, 2003. "Vertical Competition in Unitary States: the Case of Italy," Public Choice, 114, 57-77.
Breton, Albert, and Pierre Salmon, 2001. "External Effects of Domestic Regulations: Comparing Internal and International Barriers to Trade," International Review of Law and Economics, 21, 135-155.
Brollo, Fernanda, and Tommaso Nannicini, 2010. "Tying Your Enemy's Hands in Close Races: The Politics of Federal Transfers in Brazil," IGIER Working Paper.
Broockman, David E., 2009. "Do Congressional Candidates Have Reverse Coattails? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," Political Analysis, 17, 418-434.
Calvert, Randall L., and John A. Ferejohn, 1983. "Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections," American Political Science Review, 77, 407-419.
Campbell, James E., 1986. "Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails," American Journal of Political Science, 30, 165-183.
Campbell, James E., and Joe A. Sumners, 1990. "Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections," American Political Science Review, 84, 513-524.
Chari, V. V., Larry E. Jones, and Ramon Marimon, 1997. "The Economics of Split-Ticket Voting in Representative Democracies," American Economic Review, 87, 957-976.
Cohen, Jeffrey E., Jon R. Bond, Richard Fleisher, and John A. Hamman, 2000. "State-Level Presidential Approval and Senatorial Support," Legislative Studies Quarterly, 25, 577- 590.
Cox, Gary W., and Mathew D. McCubbins, 1986. "Electoral Politics as a Redistributive Game," Journal of Politics, 48, 370-389.
Degan, Arianna, and Antonio Merlo, 2011. "A Structural Model of Turnout and Voting in Multiple Elections," Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming.
Ferejohn, John, 1986. "Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control," Public Choice, 50, 5-26.
Fiorina, Morris P., 1996. Divided Government. 2d ed. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.
Flemming, Gregory N., 1995. "Presidential Coattails in Open-Seat Elections," Legislative Studies Quarterly, 20, 197-211.
Fox, Justin, and Richard Van Weelden, 2010. "Partisanship and the Effectiveness of Oversight," Journal of Public Economics, 94, 674-687.
Fréchette, Guillaume R., Francois Maniquet, and Massimo Morelli, 2008. "Incumbents' Interests and Gender Quotas," American Journal of Political Science, 52, 891-909.
Gélineau, François, and Karen L. Remmer, 2006. "Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983--2001," British Journal of Political Science, 36, 133-157.
Golder, Matt, 2006. "Presidential Coattails and Legislative Fragmentation," American Journal of Political Science, 50, 34-48.
Hogan, Robert E., 2005. "Gubernatorial Coattail Effects in State Legislative Elections," Political Research Quarterly, 58, 587-597.
Ingberman, Daniel, and John Villani, 1993. "An Institutional Theory of Divided Government and Party Polarization," American Journal of Political Science, 37, 429-471.
Jacobson, Gary C., 1990. The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1946--1988. Westview Press, Boulder.
Kaplowitz, Stan, 1971. "Using Aggregate Voting Data to Measure Presidential Coat-Tail Effects," Public Opinion Quarterly, 35, 415-419.
Kessing, Sebastian G., 2010. "Federalism and Accountability with Distorted Election Choices," Journal of Urban Economics, 67, 239-247.
Larcinese, Valentino, Leonzio Rizzo, and Cecilia Testa, 2006. "Allocating the U.S. Federal Budget to the States: The Impact of the President," Journal of Politics, 68, 447-456.
Mattei, Franco, and Joshua Glasgow, 2005. "Presidential Coattails, Incumbency Advantage, and Open Seats: A District-Level Analysis of the 1976--2000 U.S. House Elections," Electoral Studies, 24, 619-641.
Miller, Warren E., 1955. "Presidential Coattails: A Study in Political Myth and Methodology," Public Opinion Quarterly, 19, 353-368.
Mondak, Jeffery J., and Carl McCurley, 1994. "Cognitive Efficiency and the Congressional Vote: The Psychology of Coattail Voting," Political Research Quarterly, 47, 151-175.
Morelli, Massimo, 2004. "Party Formation and Policy Outcomes under Different Electoral Systems," Review of Economic Studies, 71, 829-853.
Peltzman, Sam, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 327-361.
Persico, Nicola, José Carlos Rodríguez-Pueblita, and Dan Silverman, 2007. "Factions and Political Competition," NBER WP 13008.
Persson, Torsten, Gérard Roland, and Guido Tabellini, 1997. "Separation of Powers and Political Accountability," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 1163-1202.
Press, Charles, 1958. "Voting Statistics and Presidential Coattails," American Political Science Review, 52, 1041-1050.
Rozevitch, Shimon, and Avi Weiss, 1993. "Beneficiaries from Federal Transfers to Municipalities: The Case of Israel," Public Choice, 76, 335-346.
Salmon, Pierre, 1987. "Decentralization as an Incentive Scheme," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 3, 24-43.
Samuels, David J., 2000a. "The Gubernatorial Coattails Effect: Federalism and Congressional Elections in Brazil," Journal of Politics, 62, 240-253.
Samuels, David J., 2000b. "Concurrent Elections, Discordant Results: Presidentialism, Federalism, and Governance in Brazil," Comparative Politics, 33, 1-20.
Sand-Zantman, Wilfried, 2004. "Economic Integration and Political Accountability," European Economic Review, 48, 1001-1025.
Solé-Ollé, Albert, and Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2008. "The Effects of Partisan Alignment on the Allocation of Intergovernmental Transfers. Differences-in-Differences Estimates for Spain," Journal of Public Economics, 92, 2302--2319.
Tiebout, Charles M., 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, 64, 416-424.
Veiga, Linda Gonçalves, and Maria Manuel Pinho, 2007. "The Political Economy of Intergovernmental Grants: Evidence from a Maturing Democracy," Public Choice, 133, 457-477.
Volden, Craig, 2005. "Intergovernmental Political Competition in American Federalism," American Journal of Political Science, 49, 327-342.
Volden, Craig, 2007. "Intergovernmental Grants: A Formal Model of Interrelated National and Subnational Political Decisions," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 37, 209-243.