Han, Heejoon and Park, Joon Y. (2006): Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates.

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Abstract
We consider ARCH processes with persistent covariates and provide asymptotic theories that explain how such covariates affect various characteristics of volatility. Specifically, we propose and study a volatility model, named ARCHNNH model, that is an ARCH(1) process with a nonlinear function of a persistent, integrated or nearly integrated, explanatory variable. Statistical properties of time series given by this model are investigated for various volatility functions. It is shown that our model generates time series that have two prominent characteristics: high degree of volatility persistence and leptokurtosis. Due to persistent covariates, the time series generated by our model has the long memory property in volatility that is commonly observed in high frequency speculative returns. On the other hand, the sample kurtosis of the time series generated by our model either diverges or has a welldefined limiting distribution with support truncated on the left by the kurtosis of the innovation, which successfully explains the empirical finding of leptokurtosis in financial time series. We present two empirical applications of our model. It is shown that the default premium (the yield spread between Baa and Aaa corporate bonds) predicts stock return volatility, and the interest rate differential between two countries accounts for exchange rate return volatility. The forecast evaluation shows that our model generally performs better than GARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH at relatively lower frequencies.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  ARCH; nonstationarity; nonlinearity; NNH; volatility persistence; leptokurtosis 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C50  General G  Financial Economics > G1  General Financial Markets > G12  Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2  Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22  TimeSeries Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes 
Item ID:  5199 
Depositing User:  Heejoon Han 
Date Deposited:  08. Oct 2007 
Last Modified:  04. Jun 2015 13:35 
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URI:  http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/5199 