Nenci, Silvia (2005): Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale.
Download (514Kb) | Preview
The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in fostering international trade. The distinctive feature of this study is the use of a long term data set concerning tariffs and trade of twenty-three countries (which account for over 60 per cent of world trade of the entire period) for the 1870-2000 time span. Using times series and panel data analyses the author shows as the existence of a long run relationship between tariffs reduction and trade growth at the world level is quantitatively noteworthy exclusively in the period before the Second World War while it weakens starting from 1950. The empirical results do not controvert the role that the GATT/WTO system has played in the tariff reduction process but underline as its main effect has been linked to the creation of a rule-based environment governing global trade relations, through which uncertainty was reduced and the spread of best practices promoted.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale|
|English Title:||Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comparative Historical Analysis to Assess the Multilateral Trading System|
|Keywords:||Tariffs; world trade; multilateral trading system; Gatt/WTO, time series; ECM|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration
N - Economic History > N7 - Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services > N70 - General, International, or Comparative
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
|Depositing User:||Silvia Nenci|
|Date Deposited:||03. Feb 2009 06:59|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 13:40|
Agosin M. (1991) “Trade policy reform and economic performance: a review of the issues and some preliminary evidence”, UNCTAD Discussion Papers, No. 41, Geneva, Switzerland.
Ahmed N. (2000) “Export responses to trade liberalisation in Bangladesh: a cointegration analysis”, in Applied Economics, vol. 32 (August), pp. 1077–84.
Amisano G. (2004) Elementi di econometria, Edumond, Mondadori, Milano.
Anderson J. e Wincoop E. van (2003) “Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle”, in American Economic Review, 93, 170-192.
Bairoch P. (1976) Commerce extérieur et développement économique de l’Europe au XIX siècle, Paris, Monton.
Bairoch P. (1989) "European Trade Policy, 1815-191" in P. Mathias and S. Pollard (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, vol. III, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Bairoch P. (1993) Economics and world history: myths and paradoxes, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Balassa B. (1965) "Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries: An Evaluation", in Joumal of Political Economy, December.
Balassa B. (1967) “Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market.” in The Economic Journal, Vol. 77, London, 1967.
Baldwin R. (1994) Towards an Integrated Europe, CEPR, London.
Baldwin R. E. e Lewis W. E. (1978) U.S. Tariff Effects on Trade and Employment in Detailed SIC Industries, in William G. Dewald (ed.) The Impact of International Trade and Investment on Employment, Washington: Government Printing Office.
Baldwin R. E. e Martin P. (1999) “Two Waves of Globalisation: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper n. 6904, Cambridge Mass.
Baltagi B. H. (2001) Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, J. Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England.
Basevi G., Calzolari G. e Ottaviano G. (2001) Economia politica degli scambi internazionali, Carocci ed., Roma.
Bhagwati J.N. (1988) Protectionism, MIT Press, Cambridge (Mass.)
Bleaney M. (1999) “Trade reform, macroeconomic performance and export growth in ten Latin American countries 1979–95”, in Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol. 8 (March), .pp. 89–105.
Capie F. (1994) Tariffs and Growth: some illustrations from the world economy, 1850-1940, New York, Manchester University Press.
Charemza, W.W. e Deadman, D.F. (1993) New Directions in Econometric Practice, Edward Elgar.
Clarke R. e Kirkpatrick C. (1992) ‘Trade policy reform and economic performance in developing countries: assessing the empirical evidence’, in R. Adhikari, C. Kirkpatrick e J. Weiss, (eds.), Industrial and Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries, Manchester: Manchester University Press.
Clemens M. A. e Williamson J. G. (2001) “A Tariff-Growth Paradox? Protection’s Impact the World Around 1875-1997,” NBER Working Paper 8459, Cambridge, Mass.
Cline W. R., Kawanabe T.O., Kronsjo M. e Williamset T. (1978) Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment, Brookings Institution.
Coatsworth J. H. e Williamson J. G. (2002) “The Roots of Latin American Protectionism: Looking Before the Great Depression,” NBER Working Paper 8999, Cambridge, Mass.
Dickey D. A. e Fuller W. A ( 1979) “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74.
Engle R.F. e Granger C.W.J. (1987) “Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing”, in Econometrica, vol. 55.
Feenstra R.C (1995) “Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy”, in G. M. Grossman, K. Rogoff (ed), Handbook of International Economics, vol. III, Elsevier, Amsterdam.
Goldstein M. e Kahn M.S. (1985) “Income and price effects in foreign trade”, in Jones and Kenen eds., Handbook of International Economics, vol. 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Greenaway D. e Sapsford D. (1994) ‘What does liberalisation do for exports and growth’, in Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, vol. 30.,pp. 157–74.
Greene W. (1997) Econometric Analysis, 3rd edition, London: Prentice Hall.
Grilli E. R. e Cheng Yang M. (1988) “Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows”, in The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 2, N.1.
Hamilton J. D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
Harrigan J. (1993) "OECD imports and trade barriers in 1983," in Journal of International Economics, vol. 35, 91-111.
Helleiner G. (ed.) (1994) Trade Policy and Industrialisation in Turbulent Times, London, Routledge.
Helpman E. e Krugman P. R. (1985) Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Hoekman B. M. e Kostecki M. M. (2001) The Political Economiy of the World Trading System. The WTO and Beyond, Oxford University Press, II ed.
Hofman A. (2000) The Economic Development of Latin America in the Twentieth Century, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
Hufbauer G. C. (2002) “Wrong test applied to trading system”, Financial Times, 21 November.
Irwin D. A. (1994) “The GATT’s Contribution to Economic Recovery in Post-War Western Europe”, NBER Working Papers No. 4944.
Jenkins R. (1996) ‘Trade performance and export performance in Bolivia’, in Development and Change, vol. 27, pp. 693–716.
Johnson H.G (1954) "Optimum Tariff and Retaliation", in Review of Economic Studies, 21.
Joshi V. e Little I.M.D. (1996) India’s Economic Reforms 1991–2001, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Krueger A.O. (1978) Foreign trade regimes and economic development: Liberalization attempts and consequences, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Pub. Co. per NBER.
Krueger A. O. ed. (1998) The WTO as an International Organization, the University of Chicago Press.
Leamer E. (1990) “Testing Trade Theory,” NBER Working Paper n.3957.
Leamer E. E. e Stern R.M. (1970) Quantitative International Economics, Allyn and Bacon, Inc., Boston.
Leith J.C. e Reuber G. L.( 1969) “The Impact of the Industrial Countries' Tariff Structure on Their Imports of Manufactures from Less-Developed Areas: A Comment“, in Economica, 1969, vol. 36, N.141.
Low P. (2002) “WTO is about more than just free trade”, Financial Times, Letters to the Editor, November 14.
Maddison A. (1982) Phases of capitalist development, New York, Oxford University Press.
Maddison A. (1989) The world economy in the 20th century, Development Centre of the OECD, Paris.
Maddison A. (1995) Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992, Paris, OECD.
Maddison A. (2001) The world economy: a millennial perspective, Development Centre of the OECD, Paris.
Madsen J. B. (2001) “Trade barriers and the collapse of world trade during the Great Depression”, in Southern Economic Journal, vol. 67, 4.
Mitchell B. R. (1992) International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750-1988, Macmillan, New York.
Mitchell B. R. (1998a) International Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia & Oceania, 1750-1993, London, Macmillan.
Mitchell B. R. (1998b) International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750-1993, Macmillan, Reference Ltd Oxford.
Mitchell B. R. (1998c) International historical Statistics: the Americas, 1750-1993, London, Macmillan.
Nelson C.R. e Plosser C. (1982) “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series”, in Journal of Monetary Economics vol.10.
Nenci S. (2005) “Barriere tariffarie e crescita del commercio: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale”, Tesi di Dottorato in Economia, Facoltà di Statistica, Università “La Sapienza”, http://padis.uniroma1.it.
O’Rourke K. (2000) “Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century”, in The Economic Journal, 110.
O’Rourke K. (2001) “Globalization and Inequality: Historical trends”, NBER Working Paper N. 8339.
Ostry J. e Rose A. (1992) “An Empirical Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs,” in Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 11, pp. 63–79.
Pacheco-López P. (2004) “The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports, the Balance of Payments and Growth: the Case of Mexico”, Working Paper Department of Economics, University of Kent.
Papageorgiou, D., Michaely M., e Choski A. (1990) “Liberalizing Foreign Trade in Developing Countries”, in Lessons of Experience in the Developing World, vol. 7, Basil Blackwell for The World Bank, Oxford.
Pesaran M. e Pesaran B. (1997) Working with Microfit 4.0 Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Pesaran MH. e Shin Y. (1999) An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Strom S (ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Phillips P.C.B. e Perron P. (1988) “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”, in Biometrika, 75.
Ray E. J. (1981) “Tariff and Nontariff Barriers to Trade in the United States and Abroad”, in The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 63, No.2.
Rose A. K. (2002) “Do WTO Members Have A More Liberal Trade Policy?”, NBER Working Paper No. 9347.
Rose A. K. (2004a) “Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?” The American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 1, March, pp.98-147.
Rose A. K. (2004b) “Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?”, NBER Working Paper 10.207.
Sachs J. e Warner A. (1995) “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, N.1.
Santos-Paulino A. e Thirlwall A. P. (2004) “The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports and the Balance Of Payments of Developing Countries”, in The Economic Journal, vol.114 February.
Senhadji, A.S. e Montenegro, C. (1999) ‘Time series analysis of export demand equations: a cross-country analysis’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 46 (September/December), pp. 259–73.
Shafaedin S.M. (1994) ‘The impact of trade liberalisation on exports and GDP in least developed countries’, UNCTAD Discussion Papers No. 85, Geneva.
Smith A. (1776) The Wealth of Nations, Ed. Italiana del 1975, Classici UTET.
Stolper W. F. e Samuelson P. A. (1941) “Protection and Real Wages”, in Review of Economic Studies, November.
Subramanian A. e Wei S. (2003) “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly”, IMF Working Paper 185.
Thirlwall A.P. (2003) Growth and Development: with Special Reference to Developing Economies, 7th edition, Palgrave-Macmillan, London.
Thomas V., Nash J. e Edwards S. (1991) Best Practices in Trade Policy Reform, Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank.
Trefler D. (1993) “Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy”, in Journal of Political Economy, 101, 138-160.
Unctad (1989) Trade and Development Report, UNCTAD, Geneva.
Unctad (2004) World Investment Report, Geneva.
Vamvakidis A. (2002) “How Robust is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence”, in Journal of Economic Growth, vol.7.
Weiss J. (1992) ‘Export response to trade reforms: recent Mexican experience’, in Development Policy Review, vol. 10, pp. 43–60.
World Bank (1987) World Development Report, Oxford University Press, New York.
World Bank (2003) World Investment Indicators 2003 CD-ROM, The World Bank, Washington, DC.