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Macroeconometric Approach: Optimal Taxation Policies for Economic Growth in Emerging Asia

Jayasooriya, Sujith (2020): Macroeconometric Approach: Optimal Taxation Policies for Economic Growth in Emerging Asia.

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Innovative and evidence-based public economic policies are vital for the provision of efficient public services in emerging economies. Many developing countries require privation of optimal taxation system to promote economic growth. The research question intends to identify the optimal taxation policies and impact of taxation on economic growth in emerging Asia. Rationale for the research is to provide pragmatic evidences to build up tax systems that generate optimal tax revenues in an equitable manner and facilitation of taxation for economic growth. Macroeconometric approach is used to (i) estimate the Laffer curve for Asia with Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in factors affecting optimal taxation. (ii) Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and Conical Cointegration Regression (CCR) are used to estimate the cointegration equation for the impact of taxation on economic growth using the World Bank data from 1990 to 2015. The empirical results indicate, across estimation methods and specifications, that the determinants of optimal taxation over estimation of Laffer curve are tax-rate, tax-rate2 and debt negatively significant, while tax-rate*debt, unemployment rate, foreign direct investment, and openness are positively significant. Further, comparative empirical evidences show that the positive economic growth promoting factors is tax revenue, trade openness and foreign direct investment, whereas negatively significant factors are tax-rate, unemployment rate and debt. The implications of the study are to deliberate on the macroeconomic determinants of the optimal taxation for reform the tax systems in emerging Asia. Finally, the paper guides policymakers to reform tax systems with empirical evidences on impacts of public economic policies to improve optimal taxation for the economic growth in Asia.

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