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Forecasting transaction counts with integer-valued GARCH models

Aknouche, Abdelhakim and Almohaimeed, Bader and Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos (2020): Forecasting transaction counts with integer-valued GARCH models.

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Abstract

Using numerous transaction data on the number of stock trades, we conduct a forecasting exercise with INGARCH models, governed by various conditional distributions. The model parameters are estimated with efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, while forecast evaluation is done by calculating point and density forecasts.

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