The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes

Kislev, Mickey M. and Kislev, Shira (2020): The Market Trajectory of a Radically New Product: E-Cigarettes. Published in: International Journal of Marketing Studies , Vol. 12, No. 4 (28 November 2020): pp. 63-92.

Abstract

The study analyzes the diffusion of electronic cigarettes as an innovation, as well as how industry, society, and the individual affect its market dynamics. The study is based on five surveys conducted during the years 2017−2019, and including participants of all ages (age 12 to 80 and beyond). The article describes indicators for evaluating the sustainability of a really-new product like electronic cigarettes, following the market trajectory of this product as it sets its dominant design and shapes the use-system for the product type from now onward. This process has two phases: trial and adoption. The probability of each nicotine product type’s adoption is different, depending on the prevalence of trials of that product among the population. The results of e-cigarette trials and additional indicators reveal the point (critical mass-point) where social influence outweighs rational evaluation by the individual regarding nicotine products. By using triers’ prevalence as the indicator for measuring an entry of really-new product into the market, the authors could identify the sustainability of that really-new product at a much early phase. Therefore, the prevalence of triers can be used as a predictor for the diffusion rate of an innovative product in a certain population and should be measured. The authors also propose a regression model that estimates the prevalence of triers based on the extent of users in the population.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: demerit good, electronic cigarette, innovation, diffusion, nicotine
• Subjects: L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L66 - Food ; Beverages ; Cosmetics ; Tobacco ; Wine and Spirits; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M3 - Marketing and Advertising > M31 - Marketing; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification

References

Adams, P. J., & Livingstone, C. (2015). Addiction surplus: The add-on margin that makes addictive consumptions difficult to contain. International Journal of Drug Policy, 26(1), 107–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2014.07.018

Agaku, I. T., & Alpert, H. R. (2016). Trends in annual sales and current use of cigarettes, cigars, roll-your-own tobacco, pipes, and smokeless tobacco among US adults, 2002–2012. Tobacco Control, 25(4), 451–457. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-052125

Agaku, I. T., Odani, S., Vardavas, C., & Neff, L. (2018). Self-identified tobacco use and harm perceptions among US youth. Pediatrics, 141(4), e20173523. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2017-3523

Aggarwal, P., Cha, T., & Wilemon, D. (1998). Barriers to the adoption of really-new products and the role of surrogate buyers. Journal of Consumer Marketing, 15(4), 358–371. https://doi.org/10.1108/07363769810226000

Albert, M. A. (1984). Product life cycle in the cigarette market. Winston-Salem NC: R. J. Reynolds Tobacco Company.

Assink, M. (2006). Inhibitors of disruptive innovation capability: A conceptual model. European Journal of Innovation Management, 9(2), 215–233. https://doi.org/10.1108/14601060610663587

Ayers, J. W., Ribisl, K. M., & Brownstein, J. S. (2011). Tracking the rise in popularity of electronic nicotine delivery systems (electronic cigarettes) using search query surveillance. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 40(4), 448–453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2010.12.007

Barksdale, H. C., & Harris, C. E. (1982). Portfolio analysis and the product life cycle. Long Range Planning, 15(6), 74–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(82)90010-3

Baron-Epel, O., Shalata, W., & Hovell, M. F. (2015). Waterpipe tobacco smoking in three Israeli adult populations. Israel Medical Association Journal, 17(5), 282–287. Retrieved from https://www.ima.org.il/MedicineIMAJ/viewarticle.aspx?aid=3674

Bartels, J., & Reinders, M. J. (2011). Consumer innovativeness and its correlates: A propositional inventory for future research. Journal of Business Research, 64(6), 601–609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2010.05.002

Bauer, R. A., & Wortzel, L. H. (1966). Doctor’s choice: The physician and his sources of information about drugs. Journal of Marketing Research, 3(1), 40–47. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224376600300104

Beal, G. M., & Rogers, E. M. (1958a). The communication process in the purchase of new products: An application of reference group theory. Public Opinion Quarterly, 22(2), 186–187. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/22.2.186

Beal, G. M., & Rogers, E. M. (1958b). The scientist as a referent in the communication of new technology. Public Opinion Quarterly, 22(4), 555–563. https://doi.org/10.1086/266828

Bourne, F. (1956). Group influences in marketing and public relations. Ann Arbor MI: The Foundation for Research on Human Behavior. Retrieved from https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/infoserv/isrpub/pdf.php?i=12272243977548091144365&f=Groupinfluence_2686_.PDF

Brandt, A. M. (2007). The cigarette century: The rise, fall, and deadly persistence of the product that defined America. New York NY: Basic Books.

Brexendorf, T. O., Bayus, B., & Keller, K. L. (2015). Understanding the interplay between brand and innovation management: findings and future research directions. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 43(5), 548–557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-015-0445-6

Brown, A. K., Nagelhout, G. E., van den Putte, B., Willemsen, M. C., Mons, U., Guignard, R., & Thompson, M. E. (2015). Trends and socioeconomic differences in roll-your-own tobacco use: Findings from the ITC Europe surveys. Tobacco Control, 24(Supplement 3), iii11–iii16. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-051986

Brown, S. A., Massey, A. P., Montoya-Weiss, M. M., & Burkman, J. R. (2002). Do I really have to? User acceptance of mandated technology. European Journal of Information Systems, 11(4), 283–295. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ejis.3000438

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2019). Detailed outline of topics in the redesigned national health interview survey (NHIS) sample adult questionnaire. Hyattsville MD. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/AdultNHISRedesignTopics201903.pdf

Chatterjee, R. A., & Eliashberg, J. (1990). The innovation diffusion process in a heterogeneous population: A micromodeling approach. Management Science, 36(9), 1057–1079. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.9.1057

Christensen, C. M., & Rosenbloom, R. S. (1995). Explaining the attacker’s advantage: Technological paradigms, organizational dynamics, and the value network. Research Policy, 24(2), 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/0048-7333(93)00764-K

Clark, K. B. (1985). The interaction of design hierarchies and market concepts in technological evolution. Research Policy, 14(5), 235–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/0048-7333(85)90007-1

Cohen, W. M., & Levinthal, D. A. (1990). Absorptive capacity: A new perspective on learning and innovation. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35(1), 128–152. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393553

Cook, S. A. (2006). “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire”: Tobacco use and the construction of the Canadian citizen, 1890–1930. The Social History of Alcohol and Drugs, 21(1), 69–95. https://doi.org/10.1086/SHAD21010069

Crawford, C. M. (1972). Strategies for new product development. Business Horizons, 15(6), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(72)90061-4

Crompton, J. L., & Hensarling, D. M. (1978). Some suggested implications of the product life cycle for public recreation and park agency managers. Leisure Sciences, 1(3), 295–307. https://doi.org/10.1080/01490407809512890

Dahlin, K. B., & Behrens, D. M. (2005). When is an invention really radical?: Defining and measuring technological radicalness. Research Policy, 34(5), 717–737. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2005.03.009

de Kluyver, C. A. (1977). Innovation and industrial product life cycles. California Management Review, 20(1), 21–33. https://doi.org/10.2307/41164735

Dent, C. W., Sussman, S., Johnson, C. A., Hansen, W. B., & Flay, B. R. (1987). Adolescent smokeless tobacco incidence: Relations with other drugs and psychosocial variables. Preventive Medicine, 16(3), 422–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/0091-7435(87)90041-7

DiFranza, J. R., Rigotti, N. A., McNeill, A. D., Ockene, J. K., Savageau, J. A., St Cyr, D., & Coleman, M. (2000). Initial symptoms of nicotine dependence in adolescents. Tobacco Control, 9(3), 313–319. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc.9.3.313

Du, R. Y., & Kamakura, W. A. (2011). Measuring contagion in the diffusion of consumer packaged goods. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(1), 28–47. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.48.1.28

Enis, B. M., La Garce, R., & Prell, A. E. (1977). Extending the product life cycle. Business Horizons, 20(3), 46–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(77)90070-2

Euromonitor International. (2017). Passport: Tobacco in Israel. London, UK: Euromonitor International.

Eversman, M. H. (2015). Harm reduction in U.S. tobacco control: Constructions in textual news media. International Journal of Drug Policy, 26(6), 575–582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2015.01.018

Eysenck, H. J. (1998[1947]). Dimensions of personality. New Brunswick NJ & London UK: Transaction Publishers.

Fatal, V. (2017). Description and Analysis of Taxation on Cigarettes and Rolling Tobacco. Jerusalem, Israel: The Knesset Research and Information Centre. Retrieved from https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/mmm/me04049.pdf

Fu, M., Martínez-Sánchez, J. M., Clèries, R., Villalbí, J. R., Daynard, R. A., Connolly, G. N., & Fernández, E. (2014). Opposite trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes in Spain (1991-2020). BMJ Open, 4(12), e006552. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006552

Geels, F. W. (2005). Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: Refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(6 SPEC. ISS.), 681–696. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2004.08.014

Giovino, G. A. (2007). The tobacco epidemic in the United States. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 33(6), S318–S326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2007.09.008

Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS). (2002). Tobacco use among youth: A cross country comparison. Tobacco Control, 11(3), 252–270. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc.11.3.252

Goldenberg, J., Han, S., Lehmann, D. R., & Hong, J. W. (2009). The role of hubs in the adoption process. Journal of Marketing, 73(2), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.73.2.1

Goldsmith, R. E., Flynn, L. R., & Goldsmith, E. B. (2003). Innovative consumers and market mavens. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 11(4), 54–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/10696679.2003.11658508

Grana, R., Benowitz, N., & Glantz, S. A. (2014). E-cigarettes: A scientific review. Circulation, 129(19), 1972–1986. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.007667

Hajdu, S. I., & Vadmal, M. S. (2010). The use of tobacco. Annals of Clinical and Laboratory Science, 40(2), 178–181. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20421631

Hammal, F., Mock, J., Ward, K. D., Eissenberg, T., & Maziak, W. (2008). A pleasure among friends: how narghile (waterpipe) smoking differs from cigarette smoking in Syria. Tobacco Control, 17(2), e3. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc.2007.020529

Hammond, D., Reid, J. L., Rynard, V. L., Fong, G. T., Cummings, K. M., McNeill, A., … White, C. M. (2019). Prevalence of vaping and smoking among adolescents in Canada, England, and the United States: Repeat national cross sectional surveys. The BMJ, 2019(365), l2219. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2219

Hannah, L. (2006). The whig fable of american tobacco, 1895–1913. The Journal of Economic History, 66(01), 42–73. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050706000027 Hart, J. F., & Mather, E. C. (1961). The character of tobacco barns and their role in the tobacco economy of the United States. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 51(3), 274–293. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1961.tb00379.x

Hartnett, A. (2004). The politics of the pipe: Clay pipes and tobacco consumption in galway, Ireland. International Journal of Historical Archaeology, 8(2), 133–147. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:IJHA.0000043698.64896.8b

Hiebert, L. D. (1974). Risk, learning, and the adoption of fertilizer responsive seed varieties. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56(4), 764–768. https://doi.org/10.2307/1239305

Hill, C. (2004). Le tabac en France: les vrais chiffres. Paris, France: Documentation Française.

Hill, C. (2015). Le tabac en France, mise à jour. Villejuif, France: Institut Gustave Roussy. Retrieved from https://www.gustaveroussy.fr/sites/default/files/le-tabac-en-france-maj-2015.pdf

Horsky, D., & Simon, L. S. (1983). Advertising and the diffusion of New products. Marketing Science, 2(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2.1.1

Huang, J., Duan, Z., Kwok, J., Binns, S., Vera, L. E., Kim, Y., … Emery, S. L. (2019). Vaping versus JUULing: How the extraordinary growth and marketing of JUUL transformed the US retail e-cigarette market. Tobacco Control, 28(2), 146–151. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054382

Hurt, H. T., Joseph, K., & Cook, C. D. (1977). Scales for the measurement of innovativeness. Human Communication Research, 4(1), 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2958.1977.tb00597.x

Im, S., Bayus, B. L., & Mason, C. H. (2003). An empirical study of innate consumer innovativeness, personal characteristics, and new-product adoption behavior. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 31(1), 61–73. https://doi.org/10.1177/0092070302238602

Im, S., Mason, C. H., & Houston, M. B. (2007). Does innate consumer innovativeness relate to new product/service adoption behavior? The intervening role of social learning via vicarious innovativeness. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 35(1), 63–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-006-0007-z

Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. (2018). Statistical abstract of Israel 2018 (Rapport No. 69). Jerusalem, Israel: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/publications/Pages/2018/Statistical-Abstract-of-Israel-2018-No-69.aspx

Israel Ministry of Health. (2018). Minister of health’s report on smoking in Israel 2016 (2nd rev. ed.) [in Hebrew]. Jerusalem, Israel: Israel Ministry of Health & Israel Center for Disease Control (ICDC). Retrieved from https://www.health.gov.il/PublicationsFiles/smoking_2018.pdf

Israel Ministry of Health. (2019). Minister of health’s report on smoking in Israel 2018 [in Hebrew]. Jerusalem, Israel: Israel Minister of Health & Israel Center for Disease Control (ICDC). Retrieved from https://www.health.gov.il/UnitsOffice/ICDC/HealthAndLifestyle/smoking/Pages/MOH_report.aspx

Johnson, S. C., & Jones, C. (1957). How to organize for new products. Harvard Business Review, 35(3), 49–62.

Kamakura, W. A., & Novak, T. P. (1992). Value-system segmentation: Exploring the meaning of LOV. Journal of Consumer Research, 19(1), 119–132. https://doi.org/10.1086/209291

Karande, K., Merchant, A., & Sivakumar, K. (2011). Erratum to: Relationships among time orientation, consumer innovativeness, and innovative behavior: The moderating role of product characteristics. AMS Review, 1(2), 99–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13162-011-0009-y

King, C. W., & Summers, J. O. (1970). Overlap of opinion leadership across consumer product categories. Journal of Marketing Research, 7(1), 43–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224377000700104

Klioutchkine, K. (2009). “I smoke, therefore I think”: Tobacco as liberation in Russian nineteenth-century literature and culture. In M. P. Romaniello & T. Starks (Eds.), Tobacco in Russian History and Culture: From the Seventeenth Century to the Present (pp. 83–101). New York NY & London UK: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203875735

Klonglan, G. E., & Coward, E. W. (1970). The concept of symbolic adoption: A suggested interpretation. Rural Sociology, 35(1), 77–83.

Laestadius, L. I., Wahl, M. M., & Cho, Y. I. (2016). #Vapelife: An exploratory study of electronic cigarette use and promotion on instagram. Substance Use and Misuse, 51(12), 1669–1673. https://doi.org/10.1080/10826084.2016.1188958

Lancaster, K. J. (1966). A new approach to consumer theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74(2), 132–157. https://doi.org/10.1086/259131

Lancaster, K. J. (1990). The economics of product variety: A survey. Marketing Science, 9(3), 189–206. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.9.3.189

Lancaster, K. J. (1991). The ‘product variety’ case for protection. Journal of International Economics, 31(1–2), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(91)90054-A

Levitt, T. (1965). Exploit the product life cycle. Harvard Business Review, 43(6), 81–94. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/1965/11/exploit-the-product-life-cycle

Linder, R. (2019, 14 September). What Lies behind the explosion of e-cigarettes in explosions? [in Hebrew]. In The Marker (pp. 24–25). Retrieved from https://www.themarker.com/news/health/.premium-1.7836717

Lionberger, H. F. (1954). The relation of informal social groups to the diffusion of farm information in a northeast Missouri farm community. Rural Sociology, 19(3), 233–243.

Lionberger, H. F., & Coughenour, C. M. (1957). Social structure and diffusion of farm information: Based on study of 4 farm community in northeast Missouri. Research Bulletin, 28(631), 1–107. Retrieved from https://mospace.umsystem.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10355/57934/AESResearchBulletin.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1

Lopez, A. D., Collishaw, N. E., & Piha, T. (1994). A descriptive model of the cigarette epidemic in developed countries. Tobacco Control, 3(3), 242–247. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc.3.3.242

Mackay, J., & Schluger, N. (2015). Global tobacco epidemic. In R. Loddenkemper & M. Kreuter (Eds.), The Tobacco Epidemic (2nd ed., Vol. 42, pp. 19–26). Basel Switzerland & Berlin Gremany: Karger. https://doi.org/10.1159/000369320

Mann, S., & Gairing, M. (2012). Does libertarian paternalism reconcile merit goods theory with Mainstream Economics? Forum for Social Economics, 41(2–3), 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12143-010-9084-3

Marcus, S. E., Giovino, G. A., Pierce, J. P., & Harel, Y. (1993). Measuring tobacco use among adolescents. Public Health Reports, 108(SUPPL. 1), 20–24. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1403304/

Maziak, W., Fouad, F. M., Asfar, T., Hammal, F., Bachir, E. M., Rastam, S., … Ward, K. D. (2004). Prevalence and characteristics of narghile smoking among university students in Syria. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, 8(7), 882–889. Retrieved from https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/iuatld/ijtld/2004/00000008/00000007/art00013

Maziak, W., Rastam, S., Eissenberg, T., Asfar, T., Hammal, F., Bachir, M. E., … Ward, K. D. (2004). Gender and smoking status-based analysis of views regarding waterpipe and cigarette smoking in Aleppo, Syria. Preventive Medicine, 38(4), 479–484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2003.11.021

Maziak, W., Taleb, Z. B., Bahelah, R., Islam, F., Jaber, R., Auf, R., & Salloum, R. G. (2015). The global epidemiology of waterpipe smoking. Tobacco Control, 24(Suppl 1), i3–i12. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-051903

Maziak, W., Ward, K. D., Afifi Soweid, R. A., & Eissenberg, T. (2005). Standardizing questionnaire items for the assessment of waterpipe tobacco use in epidemiological studies. Public Health, 119(5), 400–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2004.08.002

Maziak, W., Ward, K. D., & Eissenberg, T. (2004). Factors related to frequency of narghile (waterpipe) use: The first insights on tobacco dependence in narghile users. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 76(1), 101–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2004.04.007

Meenaghan, J., & O’Sullivan, P. (1986). The shape and length of the product life cycle. Irish Marketing Review, 1, 83–102. https://doi.org/10.21427/D78R3D

Menger, C. (1871). Grundsätze der Volkswirtschaftslehre. Wien, Österreichisch-Ungarische Monarchie: Wilhelm Braumüller. Retrieved from https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/menger-grundsatze-der-volkswirtschaftslehre

Midgley, D. F., & Dowling, G. R. (1978). Innovativeness: The concept and its measurement. Journal of Consumer Research, 4(4), 229–242. https://doi.org/10.1086/208701

Miller, D. (1987). Material culture and mass consumption. Oxford UK & New York NY: B. Blackwell.

Mittelstaedt, R. A., Grossbart, S. L., Curtis, W. W., & DeVere, S. P. (1976). Optimal stimulation level and the adoption decision process. Journal of Consumer Research, 3(2), 84–94. https://doi.org/10.1086/208655

Moreau, C. P., Markman, A. B., & Lehmann, D. R. (2001). ‘What is it?’ Categorization flexibility and consumers’ responses to really new products. Journal of Consumer Research, 27(4), 489–498. https://doi.org/10.1086/319623

Moskowitz, J. M. (2004). Assessment of cigarette smoking and smoking susceptibility among youth: Telephone computer-assisted self-interviews versus computer-assisted telephone interview. Public Opinion Quarterly, 68(4), 565–587. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfh040

Mowen, J. C. (2000). The 3M model of motivation and personality: Theory and empirical applications to consumer behavior. New York NY: Springer Science+Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-6708-7

Musgrave, R. A. (1959). The theory of public finance: a study in public economy. Bombay, Calcuta & Madras, India: Tata - McGraw-Hill Book Company.

Nafstad, P., Kongerud, J., Botten, G., Urdal, P., Silsand, T., Pedersen, B. S., & Jaakkola, J. J. K. (1996). Fetal exposure to tobacco smoke products: A comparison between self-reported maternal smoking and concentrations of cotinine and thiocyanate in cord serum. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica, 75(10), 902–907. https://doi.org/10.3109/00016349609055025

Nelson, R. R., & Winter, S. G. (1982). An evolutionary theory of economic change. Cambridge MA & London UK: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

Nourrisson, D. (1988). Tabagisme et antitabagisme en France au XIXe siècle. Histoire, économie et société, 7(4), 535–547. https://doi.org/10.3406/hes.1988.2394

Olshavsky, R. W., & Spreng, R. A. (1996). An exploratory study of the innovation evaluation process. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 13(6), 512–529. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0737-6782(96)00037-9

Ostlund, L. E. (1974). Perceived innovation attributes as predictors of innovativeness. Journal of Consumer Research, 1(2), 23–29. https://doi.org/10.1086/208587

Parasuraman, A. (2000). Technology readiness index (Tri): A multiple-item scale to measure readiness to embrace new technologies. Journal of Service Research, 2(4), 307–320. https://doi.org/10.1177/109467050024001

Phillips, F. Y. (2016). The circle of innovation. Journal of Innovation Management, 4(3), 12–31. https://doi.org/10.24840/2183-0606_004.003_0004

Polli, R., & Cook, V. (1969). Validity of the product life cycle. The Journal of Business, 42(4), 385–400. https://doi.org/10.1086/295215

R Core Team. (2020). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Retrieved from https://www.r-project.org/

Raju, P. S. (1980). Optimum stimulation level: Its relationship to personality, demographics, and exploratory behavior. Journal of Consumer Research, 7(3), 272–282. https://doi.org/10.1086/208815

Ram, S., & Jung, H.-S. (1991). ‘Forced’ adoption of innovations in organizations: Consequences and implications. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 8(2), 117–126. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5885.820117

Rastam, S., Ward, K. D., Eissenberg, T., & Maziak, W. (2004). Estimating the beginning of the waterpipe epidemic in Syria. BMC Public Health, 4, 32. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-4-32

Rogers, E. M. (1958). Categorizing the adopters of agricultural practices. Rural Sociology, 23(4), 347–354.

Rogers, E. M. (1959). Farmer-businessman communication. In Second Annual Agricultural Marketing Conference on “Business Strategy” (pp. 35–52). Athens OH: Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, the Ohio State University.

Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations (5th ed.). New York NY: Free Press.

Rogers, E. M., & Beal, G. M. (1958). The importance of personal influence in the adoption of technological changes. Social Forces, 36(4), 329–335. https://doi.org/10.2307/2573971

Rogers, E. M., & Shoemaker, F. F. (1971). [Diffusion of innovations] Communication of innovations: A cross-cultural approach (2nd ed.). New York NY & London UK: The Free Press & Collier Macmillan Publishers.

Romaniello, M. P. (2007). Through the filter of tobacco: The limits of global trade in the early modern world. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 49(4), 914–937. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0010417507000801

Rosen, L. J., & Kislev, S. (2018). IQOS campaign in Israel. Tobacco Control, 27(Suppl. 1), s78–s81. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054619

Ruprecht, W. (2002). Preferences and novelty. In A. McMeekin, K. Green, M. Tomlinson & V. Walsh (Eds.), Innovation by Demand: an Interdisciplinary Approach to the Study of Demand and Its Role in Innovation (pp. 56–74). Manchester UK & New York NY: Manchester University Press. https://doi.org/10.7765/9781526137449.00010

Ryan, B. (1948). A study in technological diffusion. Rural Sociology, 13(3), 273–284.

Ryan, B., & Gross, N. C. (1943). The diffusion of hybrid seed corn in two Iowa communities. Rural Sociology, 8(1), 15–24.

Ryan, B., & Gross, N. C. (1950). Acceptance and Diffusion of Hybrid Corn Seed in Two Iowa Communities. Research Bulletin, 29(372), 662–708. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.cul.columbia.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ehh&AN=13074695&site=ehost-live&scope=site

Saviotti, P. P. (2002). Variety, growth and demand. In A. McMeekin, K. Green, M. Tomlinson & V. Walsh (Eds.), Innovation by Demand: an Interdisciplinary Approach to the Study of Demand and its Role in Innovation (pp. 41–55). Manchester UK & New York NY: Manchester University Press. https://doi.org/10.7228/manchester/9780719062674.003.0004

Schumpeter, J. A. (2003[1950]). Capitalism, socialism and democracy (5th ed.). London UK & New York NY: Routledge, George Allen & Unwin Ltd.

Shapiro, N. (1986). Innovation, new industries and new firms. Eastern Economic Journal, 12(1), 27–43. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/40357381

Shechter, R. (2003). Selling luxury: The rise of the Egyptian cigarette and the transformation of the Egyptian tobacco market, 1850–1914. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 35(1), 51–75. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743803000035

Shen, M. J., Banerjee, S. C., Greene, K., Carpenter, A., & Ostroff, J. S. (2017). A content analysis of unique selling propositions of tobacco print ads. American Journal of Health Behavior, 41(2), 194–203. https://doi.org/10.5993/AJHB.41.2.11

Sinapuelas, I. C. S., Wang, H. M. D., & Bohlmann, J. D. (2015). The interplay of innovation, brand, and marketing mix variables in line extensions. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 43(5), 558–573. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-015-0437-6

Steenkamp, J. B. E. M., & Gielens, K. (2003). Consumer and market drivers of the trial probability of new consumer packaged goods. Journal of Consumer Research, 30(3), 368–384. https://doi.org/10.1086/378615

Steenkamp, J.-B. E. M., ter Hofstede, F., & Wedel, M. (1999). A cross-national investigation into the individual and national cultural antecedents of consumer innovativeness. Journal of Marketing, 63(2), 55–69. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224299906300204

Steinberg, L. D. (2017). Adolescence (11th ed.). New York NY: Mcgraw-Hill Education.

Taylor, S., & Todd, P. (1995). Decomposition and crossover effects in the theory of planned behavior: A study of consumer adoption intentions. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 12(2), 137–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-8116(94)00019-K

Thorelli, H. B., & Burnett, S. C. (1981). The nature of product life cycles for industrial goods businesses. Journal of Marketing, 45(4), 97–108. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224298104500413

Thun, M., Peto, R., Boreham, J., & Lopez, A. D. (2012). Stages of the cigarette epidemic on entering its second century. Tobacco Control, 21(2), 96–101. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050294

Tourangeau, R., Rips, L. J., & Rasinski, K. (2000). The psychology of survey response. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511819322

Tucktuck, M., Ghandour, R., & Abu-Rmeileh, N. M. E. (2017). Waterpipe and cigarette tobacco smoking among Palestinian university students: A cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health, 18, 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-017-4524-0

Urban, G. L., Weinberg, B. D., & Hauser, J. R. (1996). Premarket forecasting of really-new products. Journal of Marketing, 60(1), 47–60. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224299606000105

Vardavas, C. I., & Agaku, I. T. (2015). Electronic cigarettes: the issues behind the moral quandary. In R. Loddenkemper & M. Kreuter (Eds.), The Tobacco Epidemic (2nd ed., Vol. 42, pp. 258–267). Basel Switzerland & Berlin Gremany: Karger. https://doi.org/10.1159/000369506

Walker, D., & Henderson, M. (2010). Smoking and health in London’s East End in the first half of the 19th century. Post-Medieval Archaeology, 44(1), 209–222. https://doi.org/10.1179/174581310X12662382629373

Walsh, C. (1987). Individual irrationality and public policy: In search of merit/demerit policies. Journal of Public Policy, 7(2), 103–134. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X00005201

Ward, K. D., Hammal, F., VanderWeg, M. W., Eissenberg, T., Asfar, T., Rastam, S., & Maziak, W. (2005). Are waterpipe users interested in quitting? Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 7(1), 149–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/14622200412331328402

Warde, A. (2002). Social mechanisms generating demand: A review and manifesto. In A. McMeekin, K. Green, M. Tomlinson & V. Walsh (Eds.), Innovation by Demand: an Interdisciplinary Approach to the Study of Demand and Its Role in Innovation (pp. 10–22). Manchester UK & New York NY: Manchester University Press. https://doi.org/10.7228/manchester/9780719062674.003.0002

Wasson, C. R. (1974). Dynamic competitive strategy & product life cycles. St. Charles Ill: Challenge Books.

Wilkening, E. A. (1950). A socio-psychological approach to the study of acceptance of innovations farming. Rural Sociology, 15(4), 352–364.

Wilkening, E. A. (1951). Social isolation and response of farmers to agricultural programs. American Sociological Review, 16(6), 836–837. https://doi.org/10.2307/2087514

Wilkening, E. A. (1952). Informal leaders and innovators in farm practices. Rural Sociology, 17(3), 272–275.

Willett, J. G., Bennett, M., Hair, E. C., Xiao, H., Greenberg, M. S., Harvey, E., … Vallone, D. (2019). Recognition, use and perceptions of JUUL among youth and young adults. Tobacco Control, 28(1), 115–116. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054273

Willis, E., Haught, M. J., & Morris, D. L. (2017). Up in vapor: Exploring the health messages of e-cigarette advertisements. Health Communication, 32(3), 372–380. https://doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2016.1138388

Wood, S. L., & Swait, J. (2002). Psychological indicators of innovation adoption: cross-classification based on need for cognition and need for change. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 12(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15327663JCP1201_01

World Health Organization. (1998). Guidelines for controlling and monitoring the tobacco epidemic. Geneva Switzerland: World Health Organization. Retrieved from https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42049

Young-Wolff, K. C., Klebaner, D., Folck, B., Carter-Harris, L., Salloum, R. G., Prochaska, J. J., … Tan, A. S. L. (2017). Do you vape? Leveraging electronic health records to assess clinician documentation of electronic nicotine delivery system use among adolescents and adults. Preventive Medicine, 105, 32–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.08.009

Zitzewitz, E. W. (2003). Competition and long-run productivity growth in the UK and US tobacco industries, 18791939. Journal of Industrial Economics, 51(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6451.00189