Asymmetric transmission and effects of resource shocks: Case of Mongolia

Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal (2020): Asymmetric transmission and effects of resource shocks: Case of Mongolia.

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on Dutch disease by studying the transmission of resource shocks in Mongolia. Asymmetric resource shock transmissions adjusted for the business cycle stage were estimated using a Markov Switching Vector Autoregression model (VAR) and data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q4. The results of these and additional estimates employing recursive and non-recursive VAR models found evidence of a positive technological spillover effect from the resource sector on the Mongolian economy. However, it is evident that the main source of economic volatility is from the mining sector.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Resource shocks, Mongolia, Markov Switching VAR, SVAR
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F62 - Macroeconomic Impacts

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