Инфраструктура и экономический рост. «Бюджетный маневр» в России

Dmitriy, Skrypnik (2020): Инфраструктура и экономический рост. «Бюджетный маневр» в России.

Abstract

The paper examines the world experience in stimulating economic development based on the creation of infrastructure. The effects on economic growth are found to be moderate. Building infrastructure boosts economic growth in the poorest countries, where infrastructure shortages are critical. For developing countries, the creation of infrastructure is of secondary importance, and infrastructure has a significant impact when it is part of development projects implemented by industrial policy measures based on a system of catch-up development institutions. For developed countries, infrastructure can lag behind market sector dynamics and investment can again have significant impact. For the Russian economy, where the stock and quality of infrastructural and human capital are at medium levels, it is not necessary to expect accelerated growth from the implementation of national projects, the bulk of which goes to the creation of infrastructure. This conclusion is confirmed by numerical experiments based on a computable general economic equilibrium model constructed in this work for Russia. At the same time, it is found that the increase in the VAT rate itself, which is part of the budget maneuver, leads to a decrease in output in most industries, including the manufacturing sector. In the scenario of a budget maneuver - with an increase in the VAT rate and an increase in government spending - the negative effects of the increase in VAT are intensified: there is stronger growth in the public sector, construction and raw materials, which ensures economic growth, but at the same time increases the cost of factors and leads to a deepening decline in other sectors as a result, the economy experiences a double negative impact. The public sector begins to reproduce the mechanism of the Dutch disease.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Infrastructure and economic growth. "Budgetary maneuver" in Russia
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: infrastructure, government spending, fiscal policy, economic growth, computable general equilibrium models, structural vector autoregression models
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E16 - Social Accounting Matrix; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue > H25 - Business Taxes and Subsidies; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H50 - General; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H54 - Infrastructures ; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O23 - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O43 - Institutions and Growth

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