The Cyclicity and the contra cyclicity of the economic affairs in CEMAC Community under the Covid-19: an assessment with Panel VAR

Kuikeu, Oscar (2021): The Cyclicity and the contra cyclicity of the economic affairs in CEMAC Community under the Covid-19: an assessment with Panel VAR.

Abstract

An Obvious and certainly misleading statement in economics relationship is that the set of components imbedded into an economic Model as those of poverty explanation are unrelated. This statement have give raised to the Lucas Critique that asserts this is false because in the real world the variables are Structural in the meaning that they belong on the individual behavior of the components people’s considered in this kind of Model. Thus is this that the results about the econometric assessment of covid-19 for an individual country as in the previous works can be feasible for a broad set of countries especially those where the geographic area belong into the Sud Hemisphere? Otherwise with Panel data is be abled to recognized the main stylized facts about covid-19 in CEMAC community caractherized with prosperity in larger country as Cameroon and the aberration in consideration of one another as Congo Republic? These are the main question we are trying to answer, here. Globally Speaking the Obtained Results suggest well that Panel (data) VAR Methodology is an suitable and equivalent engine to realize this king of exercise especially considering to taking into account the homogeneity in data about the Temperature. In fact with the improvement made by panel data unit root and cointegration it’s is now possible to take into account unit root with the hypothesis of correlated individual (Pesaran 2007) thus this can change dramatically the obtained consideration compare to a case of first generation of panel data unit root test where the individual are considered unrelated so that the possibility of correlation made by the econometric Model gives place to a more emphasis on the chronological value of the Variables. Thus the relevance of the present study where the variables on Temperature is the one where a positive chock explains the occurrence and the propagation of the Covid-19.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: economic activity cyclicity panel
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence

References

Biboum A.D. et Essono A.L. (2020) « Facteurs explicatifs face à la résistance à l’adoption de Gestes Barrières face à la propagation de la Covid-19: une étude en contexte camerounais », in S. Moungou Mbenda et V. Ondoua Biwole (coord.), Epidémiologie de l’économie et confinement de l’organisation COVID-19, Yaoundé, Les Presses Universitaires de Yaoundé LesPuy et RéSFUGE, Cameroun, 49-62.

Kuikeu, O.V. (2020a) Essai sur la stabilité monétaire: la Cyclicité et la contra cyclicité de l’activité productive comme critères de cette stabilité. Cas de la Communauté économique et Monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC), MPRA_Paper 104006.

Kuikeu, O.V. (2020b) « L’impact économique de l’amélioration des services de Santé Publique au Cameroun : le cas des services de la santé Reproductive », mimeo.

Pesaran (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.