Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Designing and implementing future scenarios: Foresight methodology, economics, technologies, society,and ecology

Shevchenko, Yelena and Pomogaev, Vitaly and Stukach, Victor and Nikulin, Danil (2017): Designing and implementing future scenarios: Foresight methodology, economics, technologies, society,and ecology. Published in: Modern Perspectives in Economics, Business and Management/ Vol. 1 , Vol. 13, (2021): pp. 52-65.

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Abstract

The article discusses several aspects of incorporating foresight into the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy planning process, as well as a set of recommendations for managing uncertainties and ensuring policy alignment with society's future needs. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of technology foresight in decision-making and to develop recommendations on how to effectively integrate national foresight into the process of STI policy planning. Innovation has emerged as a key driver of global economic development, and it continues to be at the forefront of technological breakthroughs. Developed countries are increasingly focusing their efforts on research and development (R&D) in areas that will determine megatrends of technological and social progress in the coming decades. To identify key priority areas foresight brings together key agents of change and various sources of knowledge. Foresight is not aimed at providing an accurate prediction of the future, but allowing to design alternative scenarios of possible futures and to elaborate policies and strategies to achieve "the desired scenario".

The paper states that foresight provides a basis for STI policy planning by identification of key areas for long-term investments and assessing long-term perspectives of science, technology, economy and society development.

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