Designing and implementing future scenarios: Foresight methodology, economics, technologies, society,and ecology

Shevchenko, Yelena and Pomogaev, Vitaly and Stukach, Victor and Nikulin, Danil (2017): Designing and implementing future scenarios: Foresight methodology, economics, technologies, society,and ecology. Published in: Modern Perspectives in Economics, Business and Management/ Vol. 1 , Vol. 13, (2021): pp. 52-65.

Abstract

The article discusses several aspects of incorporating foresight into the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy planning process, as well as a set of recommendations for managing uncertainties and ensuring policy alignment with society's future needs. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of technology foresight in decision-making and to develop recommendations on how to effectively integrate national foresight into the process of STI policy planning. Innovation has emerged as a key driver of global economic development, and it continues to be at the forefront of technological breakthroughs. Developed countries are increasingly focusing their efforts on research and development (R&D) in areas that will determine megatrends of technological and social progress in the coming decades. To identify key priority areas foresight brings together key agents of change and various sources of knowledge. Foresight is not aimed at providing an accurate prediction of the future, but allowing to design alternative scenarios of possible futures and to elaborate policies and strategies to achieve "the desired scenario".

The paper states that foresight provides a basis for STI policy planning by identification of key areas for long-term investments and assessing long-term perspectives of science, technology, economy and society development.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Designing future scenarios, Foresight methodology, staging the future in the economy and social sphere, the scenario of the future in ecology.
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O22 - Project Analysis; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O38 - Government Policy

References

[1]. Gokhberg L, Meissner D, Sokolov A. Foresight: turning challenges into opportunities. In Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers 2016;1-8.

[2]. Miles I. The development of technology foresight: A review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2010;77(9):1448-56.

[3]. Vishnevskiy K, Karasev O. Challenges and opportunities for corporate foresight. In Deploying Foresight for Policy and Strategy Makers 2016;65-79.

[4]. Martin BR. The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective. Technology Forecasting and Social Change. 2010;77(9):1438-1447.

[5]. L, Keenan M. Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2006;73(7):761–777.

[6]. UNIDO. Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization. Vienna. 2005;1.

[7]. Na Li, Kaihua Chen, Mingting Kou. Technology foresight in China: Academic studies, governmental practices and policy applications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017;119:246-255.

[8]. Weigand K, Flanagan Th, Dye K, Jones P. Collaborative foresight: Complementing longhorizon strategic planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2014;85:134-152.

[9]. Sutherland WJ, Woodroof HJ, The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 2009;24(10):523-527.

[10]. Vecchiato R. Creating value through foresight: First mover advantages and strategic agility. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015;101:25-36.

[11]. Integration of foresight into science, technology and innovation policy planning. Shevchenko E.V., Pomogaev V.M., Stukach V.F., Tretiak V.P./Innovation Management and education Excellence through Vision 2020. Proceedings of the 31st International Business Information Management Association Conference (IBIMA). 2018. С. 3264-3277.

[12]. Rhisiarta M, Millerb R, Brooks S. Learning to use the future: Developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes. Technology Forecasting and Social Change. 2015;101:124-133.

[13]. Habegger B. Horizon scanning in government. Concept, country experiences, and models for Switzerland. 2009;17-20.

[14]. How Khee Yin. Singapore’s risk assessment and horizon scanning project: an update. International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium, 19-20 March, 2007, Singapore, 6. Kim, L. 2000. The Dynamics of Technological Learning in Industrialization. The United Nations University INTECH, Discussion paper series. 2007;200(7):22.

[15]. Habegger B. Strategic Foresight in Public Policy: Reviewing the Experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands. Futures. 2010;42:49-58.

[16]. Andersen AD, Andersen PD. Foresighting for inclusive development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017;119:227-236.

[17]. Kim L. The Dynamics of Technological Learning in Industrialization. The United Nations University INTECH, Discussion Paper Series. 2000;200(7):22.

[18]. EFMN. European Commission, European Foresight Monitoring Network - Mapping Foresight – Revealing how Europe and other Words Regions Navigate into the Future. 2009;10-15.

[19]. OECD. OECD Reviews of Innovation Policy: Korea, Paris. 2009;178–194.

[20]. Rudnik PB. Technological platforms in the practice of Russian innovation policy. Foresight. 2011;5(1):16-25.

[21]. Schlossstein D Park. Comparing recent technology foresight studies in Korea and China: towards foresight-minded governments? Foresight. 2006;8(6):48-70