Пенсионные реформы и теневой сектор: моделирование поведения доходных групп

Danielyan, Vladimir and Polterovich, Victor (2021): Пенсионные реформы и теневой сектор: моделирование поведения доходных групп.

Abstract

We improve and investigate a dynamic model of the behavior of the population of agents belonging to different income groups during the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a mixed pension system. The model is based on the assumption that wealthier participants are characterized by a lower rate of income discount, which actually means an orientation toward a longer planning horizon. It provides a satisfactory approximation of the trajectories observed in Argentina after the pension reform of 1993, which is largely similar to the Russian reform of 2002. The model shows that as income increases, the proportion of representatives of the corresponding income group who prefer to "keep in the shadow" should decrease. This pattern is consistent with observations. The model explains why pension reforms in many countries have resulted in an expansion of the shadow sector. The impact of the minimum pension, the rate of return on pension savings and the retirement age on the levels of participation of different income groups in the pension system is studied.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Pension reforms and the informal sector: modeling of income groups behavior
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: pension reform, pay-as-you-go system, fully-funded system, retirement age, minimum seniority, informal sector, participation level
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O43 - Institutions and Growth

References

Борисов К., Сурков А. (2007). Модель перекрывающихся поколений с двусторонним альтруизмом. Экономико-математические исследования: математические модели и информационные технологии. Т. VI. С. 45-60.

Гурвич Е., Сонина Ю. (2012). Микроанализ российской пенсионной системы// Вопросы экономики. № 2. C. 27-51.

Даниелян В.А. (2016). Индивидуальные детерминанты пенсионного возраста: обзор исследований // Вестник Института экономики РАН. № 3. C. 171-202.

Даниелян В., Полтерович В. (2018). Модель пенсионной реформы с гетерогенными участниками и неформальной занятостью // Вестник ЦЭМИ РАН. № 3.

Даниелян В., Полтерович В. (2019). Приключения пенсионной реформы в России: где ошибки? Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. № 2 (42). C. 186-194.

Клепикова Е.А. (2013). Моделирование предложения труда российских граждан пенсионного возраста на панельных данных РМЭЗ. В сб.: "Сборник лучших выпускных работ 2012". Москва: Изд. дом НИУ ВШЭ. С. 365-395.

Полтерович В.М. (2012). Проектирование реформ: как искать промежуточные институты. Montenegrin Journal оf Economics. Т. 8. № 3.

Attanasio, Orazio P., Costas Meghir, and Andres Otero ( 2011). Formal Labor Market and Pension Wealth: Evaluating the 2008 Chilean Pension Reform. Institute for Fiscal Studies. Working paper. http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~uctpjrt/Files/Attanasio%20Meghir%20Otero_032011.pdf

Durán V. (1993). La evasión en el sistema de seguridad social argentino. CEPAL.

Gill I., Packard T., Yermo J. (2005). Keeping the promise of social security in Latin America. Stanford University Press.

Gustman A., Steinmeier T. (1986). A structural retirement model. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge. Mass., USA.

Joubert C. (2015) Pension design with a large informal labor market: Evidence from Chile. International Economic Review. Vol. 56, 673-694.

Musalem A., Pasquini R. (2012). Private pension systems: cross-country investment performance. SP Discussion Paper. The World Bank.

Naczyk M., Domonkos S. (2015). The financial crisis and varieties of pension privatization reversals in Eastern Europe. Governance. Vol. 29.

Rofman R. et al. (2000). The pension system in Argentina. Six years after the reform. SP Discussion paper No. 0015, World Bank.https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/23685146874283361//pdf/multi0page.pdf

Rofman R., Oliveri M. L. (2012). Pension coverage in Latin America: trends and determinants. Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes. The World Bank.

Rofman R., Apella I., Vezza E. (2014). Beyond Contributory Pensions: Fourteen Experiences with Coverage Expansion in Latin America. World Bank Publications.

Sales A. (2008) Reforma al Sistema Integrado de Jubilaciones y Pensiones Argentino // Seguridad Social.Vol. 256, 71-92.

Schulthess W., Demarco G. (1993) Sistema de Pensiones en América Latina. Argentina: Evolución del Sistema Nacional de Previsión Social y propuesta de reforma. S.R.V. Impresos S.A. Santiago.

Strulik H. (2012). Patience and prosperity. Journal of Economic Theory. Vol. 147, 336-352.

Schulthess W., Demarco G. (1993) Sistema de Pensiones en América Latina. Argentina: Evolución del Sistema Nacional de Previsión Social y propuesta de reforma. S.R.V. Impresos S.A. Santiago. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/30134/S331252S386AR_es.pdf?sequence=1

Strulik H. (2012). Patience and prosperity. Journal of Economic Theory. Vol. 147, 336-352