¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta

Idrovo Aguirre, Byron (2008): ¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta. Published in: Documetos de Trabajo - Cámara Chilena de la Construcción No. 48 (15 September 2008)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in most recent months.

We conclude formally, from the use of univariate time series models –including a deterministic trend (with structural breaks) and a stochastic trend (with and without regime switching), that the long term growth rate would be marginally below that rank (somewhat superior to 4 per cent) and with a moderate adjustment velocity when the activity relays far from the steady state (up to one year).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Which is the growth of long term of the Chilean economy?
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Economía, Ciclos, Crecimiento, Tendencia, Filtro de Kalman
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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